As you may have heard Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy has proposed recently that the NBA lottery be changed so that every single team has an equal chance to win the top pick. His reasoning is that the current format encourages teams to tank at the end of the season in order to acquire more precious ping pong ball combinations, and by allowing all teams into the lottery the level of play at the end of the season would be improved. While this is a valid point, it would seem to be counterintuitive to the general concept behind a draft in a professional sports league, namely that the worst teams should be able to get the best new players in order to level the playing field and create a more competitive and entertaining product night in and night out. That being said, the current system does not necessarily guarantee that either, as for some odd reason the NBA has decided that the best way to decide who picks in the first three positions is by jumbling around 14 ping pong balls. The NBA draft has come a long way since its inception however, so lets look at how this thing has morphed over the years, and how the modern draft would change based upon the old rules.
Territorial Picks: For the first 18 years of the draft teams were allowed to give up their first round pick in order to take a player from its local area. This rule was used by teams to select such greats as Paul Arizin, Dave DeBusschere, Bill Bradley, Gail Goodrich, Oscar Robertson, and most notably Wilt Chamberlain. The rule was that a team could take any player within a 50 mile radius from them. Philadelphia alone used the rule 9 times in a ten year span, looting their local colleges. Sadly for the Cavs, Columbus and Greg Oden would be over 50 miles away. Kevin Durant would also likewise be just out of range for all three Texas teams. If this rule were still in effect, the probable result would be that college teams in the New York, LA, and San Antonio areas would be routinely stocked with elite talent hoping to be selected by one of the league's premier teams. Imagine a world where only colleges located next to NBA franchises would garner elite recruits. Suffice it to say, the elimination of this rule in the 60's prevented these sort of shenanigans from occurring.
Flip o' the Coin: After the territorial picks ended, the NBA went to a system where the last place finishers in each division would have a coin flip for the top pick, and then everyone else would pick according to their record. To be honest, this is the most sensible option the NBA has employed short of ordering teams by record. This would also be a lot more fun to watch on TV than the current draft lottery, with its stuffy suits and mysterious ping pong balls. I mean seriously, we never even get to see the actual combination that wins the lottery. I can envision a fantastic TV event, where the representatives of the bottom two teams could do a best 2 out of 3. First the coaches would go against each other, then GMs, and then the owners to close it out. I would watch this. Hell, ABC could even milk it for an extra commercial break before the climactic flip. It would be awesome. Just sayin.
The Early Lottery: For the first two years the lottery was in effect it was used to determine every lottery pick, and every lottery team had an equal chance. This of course led to the NBA rigging the lottery to give the Knicks Patrick Ewing in 1985. Or something like that. After a couple of years the NBA decided that only the top three picks would be chosen by the lottery, so the worst team would get no worse than the 4th overall pick. Until 1990 however, all the teams in the lottery still had an equal chance at those picks. Personally, I would love to see a fringe lottery team like Minnesota win the lottery and get Oden to help Garnett. It would certainly be much more tense in the lottery room if every team had an equal chance to snag one of the top picks. More tense = More awesome
The Current Lottery: The NBA has now decided that the best way to do the lottery is to divvy up the 1001 different combinations among the lottery teams, while giving more combinations to the worst teams. (Actually, they only give out 1000 of the 1001 combinations. For some reason they do not want to give out the combination 11-12-13-14. If it is ever drawn they just draw again. The NBA is so weird...) As it stands currently the best eight teams in the draft have less than a 5% chance each, and the bottom four have a less than 1% chance.
Now, the NBA draft has always had a funny way of producing....how should I put it...odd results when elite prospects are involved. Ewing going to the Knicks is commonly noted, but even odder was Orlando winning two lotteries in a row, even though they only had a 1.5% chance when they won the right to trade Chris Webber away for a toy doll and Penny Hardaway. San Antonio parlayed one down year out of a string of success into Tim Duncan. Cleveland got their hometown boy LeBron James. I am not saying the NBA rigs anything, but...it just seems a little too perfect sometimes. And it is also a little odd that they do not do the actual drawing on air. I think it would be great if they pulled out a bubble machine right there on TV and had the GMs play lottery bingo. They could have little markers and everything. Maybe they could even bring in their mothers to help.
Looking at the bottom of the standings as we approach the end of the season, Memphis, Boston, and Milwaukee rest in the pole positions for the bottom three spots, with Charlotte also standing to have a 12% chance to win the lottery. So for those conspiracy theorists out there....you know Boston is going to end up with either Oden or Durant, but that makes sense considering their record this season. The real team to watch out for to come miraculously flying into the top 2 however, a historically storied franchise on tough times, a team in a large TV market that just lost its top player,...yup, the 76ers. That would be the great conspiracy chance for this year, if they were able to pull out Oden or Durant. I mean....it could happen. And it would also probably make Jeff Van Gundy happy, since he evidently likes bad teams to stay bad.
