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Sunday, April 29, 2007

Draft Thoughts

In advance of a more detailed analysis of the NFL Draft later this week, I want to point out a few things that stuck out to me from the draft this weekend.

The best trade is when you get your cake and eat it too: In three cases early in the draft teams were able to take advantage of a team desperate to trade up for a particular prospect, while still being able to draft their original target later on.

*The Jets traded with the Panthers to move from #25 to #14 in order to get CB Darrelle Revis, and the Panthers were able to still get LB Jon Beason at #25 while also getting the best center in the draft, Ryan Kalil, with the second round pick acquired in the deal.

*The Broncos traded with the Jags to move from #21 to #17 to get DE Jarvis Moss, and the Jags were still able to get the safety they had coveted all along in Reggie Nelson. The Jags also received a 2nd and a 5th round pick, and consequently shopped the 2nd round pick to Baltimore for a 5, a 6 and a 7. So in the end they got the guy they always wanted, for a little less money, plus four extra late rounders. Nice work.

*The Bills traded with the Lions to move from #43 to #34 and selected Paul Posluzny. The Lions were still able to get Michigan State QB Drew Stanton as well as an additional 2nd Rounder.

These are the types of trades that can turn an organization around, or keep a good one on top. You can never have enough picks.

I guess anyone can be a GM nowadays: There were a striking number of moments early in the draft where the only response a fan could have to their team's pick was a bat through the televison. There are bad value picks, but then there are bad value picks that are made when there is good value in a position of need still on the board. For example:

*The Dolphins selected Ted Ginn Jr. at #9 with Brady Quinn still on the board. Perhaps the Dolphins have a lot more faith in Culpepper than most, or maybe they see more in 2nd Rounder John Beck than others, but with the dissarray at the QB position it would seem asinine to pick a receiver projected by most to go in the middle of the 1st when a potential franchise QB is sitting in the green room.

*The Packers took DT Justin Harrell at #16 with a host of 1st Round caliber WRs available. Not only did they avoid plugging their biggest hole this side of RB, they also went with the second best DT still left, with Alan Branch still on the board.

*The Colts took Anthony Gonzalez at #32 with Alan Branch still sliding. I mean, did you watch a Colts game last year? They don't think they need a DT more than yet another WR?

When these trades are evaluated five years from now, just keep in mind what could have been. Especially you Miami, especially you.

The Broncos like the way the Redskins think: Mike Shanahan really really wanted Jarvis Moss and Marcus Thomas. To get the pick for Moss the Broncos gave up their 1st, a 2nd , and a 5th. For Thomas in the 4th Round they gave up a 6th, a 7th, and...A 3RD NEXT YEAR? Wow, the Broncos better hope these two guys turn out to be something special, because they had to sacrifice 6 picks to get em. I mean, getting rid of draft picks en masse has really worked out well for Washington...

Phil Savage is no dummy: The Browns had a sensational draft. Say what you will about what they had to pay to trade up for Quinn, but in Quinn, Joe Thomas, and Eric Wright (a top 15 talent with background issues) the Browns were able to draft potential 10 year starters at arguably the three most important positions in the NFL: Starting QB, Blindside Tackle, and Shut Down Corner. If you can think of a team that has filled those three positions all in one draft, let me know. I would love to see it.

The going rate for a WR is a 4th Rounder: A 4th Round choice seemed to be all that was needed for teams to get veteran pass catchers, as the Pats were able to get Randy Moss and the 49ers were able to get Darell Jackson for the same price. In addition, the Raiders were able to get Josh McCown and Mike Williams for just one fourth rounder, perhaps showing just how badly the Lions wanted to get rid of #2 of Matt Millen's draft disasters.

Alright, those are my first round of impressions. Later in the week we will roll out a more detailed draft evaluation for each division.