Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Steal The Raiders

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

The Oakland Raiders had the worst offense in all of football last season.

That statement isn't news to any fantasy football player, especially anyone that was unlucky enough to take LaMont Jordan with a first round pick last year. Accordingly, the Raiders' offensive skill players are being treated like lepers in fantasy drafts this season. LaMont Jordan is going on average at the 76th pick in ESPN drafts. Jerry Porter is going 125th. Daunte Culpepper is going undrafted. So are these wise choices by fantasy owners to avoid the Raiders?

No.

Fantasy owners need to examine the context of last season's offensive debacle in Oakland before they write off the entire team. There was a perfect storm of factors that contributed to making the Raiders offense one of the worst in league history;

Shell And Company: Art Shell and offensive coordinator Tom Walsh embarrassed themselves last season. They showed themselves to be relics from a by-gone era two men that did not understand how to run an offense in the modern NFL, much less a team. Joe Gibbs had the same problem in his first season with the Redskins, so he brought in Al Saunders to take over the offense. Shell and Walsh were not afforded the same grace as Gibbs however, and were canned by Al Davis after last year's 2-14 campaign. The fact that the Raiders were employing the most inept head coach and offensive coordinator combo in the NFL last season was the first factor as to why the Raiders were so awful last season. The second reason was also Shell's fault...

WR Drama: Art Shell and Jerry Porter did not hit it off last season in Oakland. So much so that Shell inexplicably benched Porter for almost the entirety of last season. In addition to the loss of Porter, Randy Moss decided to effectively quit eight games in the season. A good coach would have trouble dealing with the loss of two WRs during the season; for a bad coach like Shell, the losses were catastrophic.

LaMont's Injury: Last year was supposed to be the breakout year for LaMont Jordan. He was coming off a 2005 campaign that saw him score 11 TDs and have over 1500 yards of total offense. So how did Shell capatalize on Jordan's talent? By barely running him and never throwing the ball to a back that had 70 receptions and 563 yards receiving the year before. The misuse of Jordan by Shell was downright criminal, and Jordan's season ending injury in the 10th game of the season was probably a blessing. After Jordan went out, the ball carrying duties fell to Justin Fargas. That's a bad thing in case you are keeping score at home.

There were a number of other reasons for the Raiders ineptitude, but those were the main causes. They are also three areas where the Raiders have vastly improved this season. New head coach Lane Kiffin comes from USC with a reputation for running a high powered offense. His offenses at USC also utilized RBs in the receiving game. Kiffin finds himself with a big time weapon in LaMont Jordan, and unlike Shell Kiffin will not waste the chance to use Jordan in the passing game. Kiffin's offensive philosophy will certainly garner more points than Shell's did last year. Also working in the Raider's favor is the vast upgrades in offensive personnel that have been made during the off-season. Consider; at RB last season the Raiders had a hobbled Jordan a plus Justin Fargas. Now they have a healthy Jordan and have added Dominic Rhodes through free agency and drafted Michael Bush out of Louisville. At WR Porter (who had back to back 900 yard seasons before last year's benching) seems primed to step into the #1 role after years of playing second fiddle to Tim Brown, Jerry Rice, and Randy Moss. Joining him is Ronald Curry. At TE the Raiders used their 2nd round pick on the dangerous Zach Miller to replace the unproductive Courtney Anderson. At QB the Raiders have ditched the cancerous Aaron Brooks and have added both Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown. Either of those new QBs signify an upgrade over last season. The Raiders did not stop there; they also signed one of the best FBs in the NFL, Justin Griffith, during the off-season. For the sake of comparison, lets see what these offseason moves look like take all together:

Lost:
Art Shell
QB Aaron Brooks
WR Randy Moss
TE Courtney Anderson

Gained:
Lane Kiffin
QB Josh McCown
QB Daunte Culpepper
RB Michael Bush
RB Dominic Rhodes
WR Jerry Porter
TE Zach Miller
FB Justin Griffith

The end result is obvious; the Raiders have signifigantly improved every single offense skill position since the end of last season. They also have a coach now that actually knows a thing or two about putting points on the board. The Raiders have also scored two offensive TDs in the first half of all three of their preseason games thus far. This isn't last year's Raiders team. In fact, it doesn't even resemble it one bit. So if you are looking for a steal in your fantasy draft, jump on Porter, Jordan, and Culpepper. They may not end up being studs, but they will end up being far more valuable than the price you will have to pay for them.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Myth Of LJ

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

So late this week I got an e-mail from reader AJ that I think illustrates an important divide in fantasy football circles at present. AJ wrote:

"I am a huge fantasy football fan. I play in multiple espn.com leagues and I am in another one that is coming up soon. The reason this one is important is because I am playing against my friends so all bragging rights are on the table. My question is about Larry Johnson. Is he a stretch at the third or fourth pick of my draft? His line isn't what it once was and the Chiefs passing game is horrible. This means there will be 8 guys in the box keying on Johnson. So is Johnson a better pick than someone like Willie Parker or Joseph Addai? If you have the time to respond to my question it would be greatly appreciated."

What the question boils down to is this; how risky is LJ this year? As AJ outlines above, there are three major reasons that have been posited as to why LJ should be worn down this year. He had too many carries last year, his offensive line is in a shambles, and the passing offense is terrible. To evaluate where LJ should go in your fantasy draft in light of these factors lets examine them each individually:

The 416 Carries: If someone is telling you that LJ is going to have a down year, this is most likely why. As ESPN.com notes on their fantasy projection of Johnson;

"Since 2000, seven NFL backs have lugged 370 carries or more in a season. Collectively, that group averaged roughly 726 yards and 8 TDs fewer in the follow-up season. Four of them missed at least four games".

Pretty scary numbers eh? The problem I have with those numbers though, are that they are completely devoid of context and are very limiting in their scope because they do not factor in receptions. Consider this; in terms of total offensive touches last season, LJ toted the rock 457 times last season. For comparison, LT had a combined 429 offensive touches last year, including the playoff game against New England. Are LT's 429 touches going to keep anyone from drafting him #1? Of course not. In fact, check out Tomlinson's entire career in term of offensive touches. In 2002 LT had 451 combined offensive touches and had over 2100 total yards and 15 TDs. The next year he had 413 combined touches, 2300 total yards, and 17 TDs. Not exactly a down season right? If LT can still be an elite back after multiple 400+ touch seasons, why not LJ? If anything, LJ is the perfect back to have had such a heavy season. He played three seasons at Penn State, but was only the starter for one year. He has been in the NFL for four years but has only been a starter for two and a half. Think about that. LJ only has 3.5 years of "tread" on his legs. Don't let one heavy season of work scare you away.

The O-Line: The second big point that has been made against LJ is that his offensive line has greatly declined. Let's take a look at whether or not that is actually true. Last year the Chiefs were starting LT Jordan Black, LG Brian Waters, C Wiegmann, RG Will Shields, and RT John Welbourn. The main problem with the line last year was that Willie Roaf unexpectedly retired, leaving the Chiefs to scramble to fill the LT spot. They tried Kyle Turley and a number of other options, but nothing really seemed to stick. For this year, the line had another heavy blow with the loss of Pro Bowler Will Shields, but if you look beyond the loss of Shields the line may well be improved over last season. Welbourn has moved to RG, Brian Waters and Wiegmann are still starting, Damion McIntosh is an improvement at LT. The big question mark is Chris Terry at RT. Terry has had a number of issues off the field, and is a bit of a project right now. Overall though, the line really isn't bad. LJ still had nearly 2200 total yards and 19 TDs last year after losing Roaf, and this year he might have a more stable overall line to run behind, even with the loss of Shields.

The Passing Game: This is where the going gets tough. AJ raises an excellent point in his question; if the Chiefs start Brodie Croyle there will indeed be eight guys in the box waiting to hit LJ in the mouth. Luck has smiled upon fantasy players however, as just half an hour ago Damon Huard was named the starter for the Chiefs. Hooray! Fantasy owners rejoice! Huard played extremely well last season, and the Chiefs have the same exact offensive weapons as they did last year plus the addition of first round WR Dwayne Bowe. As long as Huard is back there, LJ is safe.

So the final verdict? LJ is more than fine for this year. Personally I think it is a toss up between him and Frank Gore at the 3-4 spots, but if he is there at #4 I would snatch him up. Good luck AJ, and if anyone else has a question they would like addressed just send it in to turnoverbattle@gmail.com.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Bye, Bye

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Bye week. Next to "injury report", those two words are perhaps the most important for fantasy owners to pay attention to during the season. A fantastic team can be crippled by not paying attention to a bye week, and if you are not able to react quickly or well enough your QB or #1 RB's bye week can lead to a loss to an inferior fantasy squad. Most players are very careful about observing their RBs bye weeks when drafting, so that they never have more than one starter out at a time. What might be worse than having your two RBs out at the same time however, is having your QB and your top RB out the same week. If that happens, you can almost automatically chalk up a loss for the week.

To help avoid such a problem, I have compiled a list of the starting RBs that have a bye week the same week as each of the top 10 fantasy QBs:

Peyton Manning: Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Carson Palmer: Brian Westbrook (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Drew Brees: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis (White/Henry/Brown, Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Tom Brady: Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, Carnell Williams

Marc Bulger: Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs

Donovan McNabb: Rudi Johnson (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Matt Hasselbeck: Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James, Jerrious Norwood (Julius Jones/Marion Barber)

Vince Young: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister (Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Philip Rivers: Jamal Lewis (Brandon Jackson/Vernand Morency, DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams)

Jon Kitna: Wilie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry, Joseph Addai (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Two players from this list jump out as me as problems; Peyton Manning and Vince Young.

Peyton: If you have Peyton Manning this year, the likelihood is that you selected him somewhere in the frist round. If so, you are already a little bit behind when it comes to the RB derby, as every single one of your opponents is likely to have a top ten RB while you are left with the scraps. Now take a look at the RBs that have the same bye week as Peyton. Were you thinking about getting Willie Parker at the top of the second round? Forget it. Travis Henry? Same. Marshawn Lynch in the 3rd or 4th round? Nix that idea too. Although Peyton will certainly give you big numbers this year, just remember that his bye week is likely to give you a headache both then, and during your draft.

Vince: Nevermind the fact that I don't think Vince is a good choice as your starting QB. Lets say you do pick him. Take a gander at the bevy of top 20 RBs that are going to be out the same week as Vince; Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister. Youch. If you take Vince as your starter, make sure to pay special attention to the composition of your RB depth chart, or you could find yourself hurting come Week 4.


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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Good News Injury

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

This weekend Travis Henry of the Broncos sprained the MCL in his left knee. What this likely means from a fantasy perspective is that Henry will see a decline on draft boards.

This is great news.

How so? First off you need to realize that Henry is already being undervalued in most fantasy drafts. Henry is rated as the #14 RB by ESPN and #13 by Yahoo. As of right now, all it takes to get Henry is a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. History would say that he will be much more valuable than such a pick. Henry's move to the Broncos has been much discussed in fantasy circles, but few people realize just how signifigant the move is for Henry's production. To illustrate, here are some average numbers from the Broncos rushing attack over the past five seasons:

Average Yards Per Rush: 4.72

Average Carries For Feature Back: 262

Average TDs For High TD Back: 12

Now lets say that Henry just has an "average" season for a Broncos feature back based on those numbers. Based on those numbers Henry would have roughly 1,230 yards and 12 TDs, which would be good for 195 fantasy points. That total does not even take into account any points for receiving yards, yet last season it would have been good for 9th best among running backs. The scary thing is that Henry is in fact a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, having had career highs of 43 receptions and 309 yards in 2002. For his career Henry has averaged 11.5 receiving yards per game, which over a full season would translate into 184 yards. Now add those 18 points to Henry's total and he would be at 213 fantasy points. Again, these numbers reflect what Henry's numbers would look like if he has an average season for a Broncos RB.

What this all translates into is that Henry will likely have a season worthy of a lower end #1 fantasy RB if he just has an average season. If he excells in the Broncos system, he could become a middle to upper level fantasy #1. Yet he is routinely available in the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds of fantasy drafts, and with his injury scared fantasy owners now have an excuse to drop him even lower. Don't be fooled; snapping up Travis Henry could be both a great value and the key to a great fantasy season, so be thankful that his injury will scare enough people off so you can pick him.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Final Round Sleepers

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

The final round pick. It is perhaps the most overlooked pick in fantasy football drafts, yet it can also be one of the most important. By the time the 16th round rolls around, most people are ready to go, eager to evaluate how their team is going to stack up. Most of the time the only players left in the final round are 3rd and 4th string WRs and RBs or low level QBs such as Brodie Croyle, Jeff Garcia, and Jason Campbell. Many fantasy players use the 16th round to finally pick up a kicker or a defense. In all these cases, the last pick is a throwaway pick.

I have news for you; it doesn't have to be.

Your last pick can in fact become a very valuable asset to your fantasy team, but in order for that to happen you have to take the time to carefully identify situations where a sleeper can evolve. For example, last year injury concerns and a criminally low ranking by ESPN and Yahoo allowed me to grab Kellen Winslow in the final round of all of my fantasy drafts. Winslow went on to be the #6 fantasy TE last season, a fantastic bargain for a 16th round pick. Onto the big question; who are this year's final round steals?

Jacoby Jones: Don't feel bad if you don't know who Jacoby Jones is yet. Jones was drafted this year by the Texans out of Division II Lane College after a great showing at the combine. Jones was known in college for being both a great receiver as well as an explosive kick returner. The Texans seem to have already penciled Jacoby in as their punt returne, but the truly intriguing thing about Jones is that he is currently in a close battle with Kevin Walter for the #2 WR position opposite Andre Johnson. If Jones were to get the starting spot he could become a huge steal in the final round of fantasy drafts. With defenses concentrating on Andre Johnson and Ahman Green Lane could find himself the beneficiary of lax coverage. Combine that with his potential for punt return TDs, and Lane could see his fantasy production as a rookie fall somewhere between Greg Jennings and Marques Colston. Don't believe in him yet? Check his stat line from tonight's preseason game; 2 rushes for 24 yards, 2 receptions for 32 yards, and an 80 yard punt return for a TD.

Devin Hester: Hester is a player that every fantasy owner should be familiar with. Now granted, his new role as a WR in the Bears' offense will not likely garner very many yards or consistent outings. Hester is a gadget player on offense, nothing more. What he also happens to be however, is perhaps the most explosive player in the NFL. Even if Hester only gets a minimal number of touches this year, does anyone really doubt that he won't be able to turn at least a few of them into scores? While Hester won't garner you many yardage points, he may well score the most TDs of any player that is available in the final round of fantasy drafts. You don't need me to tell you that TDs are fantasy gold.

T.J. Duckett, Greg Jones, Michael Robinson, and Tony Hunt: Why on earth would you want to pick one of these mainly anonymous backup RBs? Two words; Touchdown Vulture. Each of these backs are in high octane offenses where the RB they are backing up is either 1.) undersized or 2.) prone to fumbling. Every Frank Gore fantasy owner from last season remembers his goal line fumbles, and you can bet that Mike Nolan remembers them as well. Robinson should see the vast majority of the carries inside the 10 yard line. T.J. Duckett is of course the perrenial TD vulture, and backing up the small and fumble prone Tatum Bell sets him up for another 7-10 TD season. Greg Jones will be the short yardage cog of the three headed Jaguars rushing machine, and will greatly reduce the value of Maurice Jones-Drew. Tony Hunt is the ultra sleeper of this group. The Eagles are well aware of Brian Westbrook's injury history, and in recent years they have featured Correll Buckhalter heavily to spell Westbrook. Hunt, a rookie out of Penn St., could step into the short yardage duties for the Eagles as well as challenge Buckhalter for the secondary carries. Also, if Westbrook goes down to injury Hunt could become a real threat as a fantasy back.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Beware Maurice Jones-Drew

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

I'm sure you've seen the commercial. You know, the ESPN one for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame, where a fantasy owner gives a teary testimonial about how Maurice Jones-Drew won his fantasy league for him. Great commercial. The dark side of that story however, is that that commercial and the subsequent overrating of Jones-Drew in fantasy football projections is going to produce the exact opposite result this year;

Maurice Jones-Drew will make you lose your fantasy league.

To understand why this is true, you first need to understand what produced the Jones-Drew phenomena last season. Jones-Drew rushed for nearly 1,000 yards, had over 400 yards receiving, and scored a mind-boggling 16 total TDs. There are many reasons for why Jones-Drew was able to have such a high level of success. Lets take a look at the factors that culminated in the perfect storm for Jones-Drew's breakout year;

1. Leftwich's Injury: Did you ever wonder how the Jaguars were able to give both Fred Taylor and Jones'Drew so many carries last year? The reason was simple; they weren't passing. Byron Leftwich was injured and missed the final 10 games of the season, forcing David Garrard into the starting role. The offensive coaching staff did not have nearly as much confidence in Garrard as they did in Leftwich, resulting in shift in offensive philosophy over the final 10 games of the season. In the first 6 games when Leftwich was the starter, the Jags averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game. Over the final 10 games they averaged 26 pass attempts per game. The end result of the change from Leftwich to Garrard was that there were more carries for Jones-Drew, as well as an emphasis on shorter passes, i.e. to Jones-Drew.

2. Taylor's Injury: People seem to forget about this one, but Fred Taylor was injured in the Jags 13th game of the season and barely played in the final three weeks. During those three weeks Jones-Drew accumulated 25% of his TD total, 29% of his rushing total, and 24% of his receiving total.

3. Jones' Injury: This is the one that nobody is taking into consideration. Last season the Jaguar's stud FB Greg Jones missed the entire year with a torn ACL. Not familiar with him? He is 6-1 and 255 lbs of pure nasty, and happens to be one of the best short-yardage runners in the NFL. While Jones was gone last season Jones-Drew assumed the short yardage duties and scored 7 of his 13 rushing TDs from within 6 yards.

So now that we've taken a look at what made the Maurice Jones-Drew monster last year, it is time to evaluate whether or not he will be in a similar situation this year. Here is a look at some factors that lead me to believe that Jones-Drew will not have anywhere near the same kind of fantasy impact this season:

1. Leftwich Returns: Remember how Jones-Drew emerged last season after the Jags lost Leftwich and became a run based offense? Well, Byron is back and healthy this year so that should reduce Jones-Drew's number of carries. Also keep in mind that Leftwich is also in a contract year, so an even greater emphasis might be put on the pass.

2. Jones Returns: Those 7 short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew scored last year? This year those carries will be going to Greg Jones. Right off the bat that takes away a ton of Jones-Drew's fantasy appeal. It is pretty hard to expect a backup running back to score a lot of TDs when he no longer will be getting the goal-line carries.

3. Taylor Remains: People seem to forget that Fred Taylor is still on the Jags, and that he is still their starter at RB. Not only that, he is still very productive. Last year he averaged a career best 5.0 yards per carry while gaining over 1,100 yards. Taylor also recently signed a contract extension through 2010, so anyone that thinks that Jones-Drew is going to be taking any of the starter carries away from Taylor this year needs to wake up.

4. Introducing Dirk Koetter: Dirk Koetter...that name sounds really familiar. Oh yeah, he was the coach at Arizona State for the past 6 years until he was fired last October. Oh, and he also happens to be the new offensive coordinator for the Jaguars this season. Now if any of you remember Arizona State's offense from the past 6 years you'll remember one key thing; they passed, and they passed a whole lot. Koetter runs an offense that is based on the vertical passing game, one that seems well-suited to a team that has Byron Leftwich and high draft picks such as Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Marcedes Lewis to whom to throw passes. What this means is that the Jaguars are going to be throwing a lot more this season than they did last year. Last season the Jaguars threw 446 times while rushing 513 times. Now lets take a look at the pass / run split from the Jags' first pre-season game with Koetter in charge of the offense; 39 passes, 29 rushes. Besides the general tendency towards passing, Koetter's offenses have also been very kind to TEs. What that means is that Marcedes Lewis will likely get a large number of the short to medium range looks that would have otherwise gone to Jones-Drew.

Now lets play connect the dots. The Jags starter at QB is back and the new offensive coordinator loves to pass almost as much as Mike Martz and Dennis Green, so that means that the Jags will have fewer total rushing attempts. Greg Jones is back, which means that not only will he cut into Jones-Drew's total rushing attempts, but he will also take away the cheap short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew had so many of last season. Throw on top of that the fact that Fred Taylor is still the starter and that the new offensive coordinator loves passing to TEs in the intermediate passing game and I think it is pretty easy to see that Maurice Jones-Drew is in a situation where he is going to see his total carries, rushing TDs, and his role in the passing games drastically reduced.

So how is it that ESPN and Yahoo are ranking him as a 2nd round pick in fantasy?

To answer that question you must examine what stats those two sources are projecting for Jones-Drew this season. ESPN has him ranked as the #21 overall fantasy player, and has the following stat projections;

141 ATT, 823 YDS, 49 REC, 476 YDS, 8 Total TDs

With the emphasis on the passing game and the increased competition for backfield carries the 8 total TDs is a tad high for my taste. What is really absurd here however, is the fact that these projections assume that Jones-Drew is going to average 5.8 yards per carry. If you reduce that number to a more reasonable projection of 5.0 yards per carry than the projected rushing yards plummet to 700. The 49 receptions also seem a bit high considering that Koetter likes the TE better in the intermediate passing game, and the fact that Greg Jones may well be a better receiving option out of the backfield than Jones-Drew.

Yahoo has an even rosier projection for Jones-Drew, ranking him #16 overall with the following stat line:

1,172 YDS rushing, 111 YDS receiving, 13 total TDs (12.5 rushing)

Those projections, to put it kindly, are insane. To approach that number of rushing yards Jones-Drew would have to get 200 carries while averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Jones-Drew is not going to even sniff that number of carries this year. No way, no how. The more asinine part of the projection is the 12-13 rushing TDs. For the reasons listed above, Jones-Drew is very unlikely to be near that ballpark.

So what do I think Jones-Drew's stats will look like this year? This would be my estimate;

700 YDS rushing, 350 YDS receiving, 5 total TDs

What that comes out to is 135 fantasy points. I don't know about you, but I think there are a lot of players in the first or second round that are going to get me more than 135 fantasy points. So don't say that you haven't been warned; taking Maurice Jones-Drew with a high pick is going to kill your fantasy team.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The QB Cliff

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Every fantasy football player knows that running back is the most important position to fill in fantasy football. Even if you are stacked at RB however, your team can be hamstrung if you don't have a viable starter at quarterback. So who do you need to take this year to ensure yourself a good shot at winning your league? More so than many other years, the answer is simple; take one of these six QBs:

Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Carson Palmer
Tom Brady
Marc Bulger
Donovan McNabb

In ESPN live drafts thus far all of these QBs have been off the board on average by the 40th pick. So it will cost you a 1st-4th round pick to do it, but you'll be set at the QB spot all season with one of these guys. If you pass on the members of the above group, the production drop-off is extremely steep after McNabb. In ESPN drafts the next QB drafted is Matt Hasselbeck, at an average pick of 55.2. The QB cliff is so steep in fact, that only four other QBs not in the top six (Hasselbeck, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo) even have an average pick in the first eight rounds of ESPN drafts. Yahoo drafts are seeing a similar pattern, with the only real difference being the inclusion of Jon Kitna in the first 80 picks on average.

As far as the production drop-off after the top six, just go take a look at last year's final fantasy stats for QBs. There is a clear divide after the top six, so grabbing one of them gives you a tremendous advantage at the QB spot over 4-6 of the other teams in your league, depending on size. Think of it this way; if you go RB-RB-WR with your first three picks, how can you justify taking a guy like Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss, Marion Barber III, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Ahman Green if Bulger and McNabb are still on the table? The talent drop-off between third and fourth tier RBs and second and third tier WRs is not nearly as steep as the drop-off at QB after the big six, so unless you have a dynamite sleeper pick you are better off going QB by round 4.

Now on to two QBs I think are overrated and two I think are great sleepers for this year;

You'll Be Dissapointed In:

Vince Young: I really can't remember a fantasy QB being as vastly overrated going into a season as Vince Young is this year. ESPN has him rated 8th among QBs, and Yahoo has him ranked 7th. Why do they have him ranked so high? If you delve deeper into the projections each site has for Young, the answer becomes glaringly obvious. ESPN has Young projected for 7 rushing TDs this season, and Yahoo has him down for 8.7. Unless Young hits those totals (good for 42-54 fantasy points) there is no way on earth you can project him as a top ten QB. He lost his workhorse RB in Travis Henry and the team just isn't very talented at WR, especially after losing Drew Bennett to the Rams this offseason. So just how crazy is it to assume Young will have 7-9 rushing TDs? Let me put it like this; Mike Vick has a career high of 8 rushing TDs, and only 21 total rushing TDs in his entire six year career. You're telling me I should just assume then that Vince Young is more of a socring threat on the ground than Vick? I'll pass on that one thank you.

Matt Leinart: Leinart is one of the middle of the pack QBs in fantasy this season, and if you want to take a flier on him as a backup he really isn't that bad of a choice. Penciling him in as your starter though, is a recipe for disaster. Most casual fans probably don't realize the impact that the head coaching change in Arizona from Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt will have on the Cardinals' offense this year. Green is known for running a high flying aerial offense, one that made both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald into fantasy stars in recent years. As for Whisenhunt? Um...have you watched a Steelers game in the last few years? In Whisenhunt's three seasons in charge of the Steelers' offense Pittsburgh ranked in the top ten in rushing yards every single year, and in the top ten in passing yards only once. Translation; More Edge, less Leinart now that Whisenhunt is at the helm.

You'll Be Suprised By:

Jon Kitna: Do you want to know how good Kitna is going to be this year? Just think about it logically for a second. Last year he threw for over 4200 yards, had 20+ TDs, and ranked 7th among all QBs in total fantasy points last season, even with Kevin Jones missing a third of the year. During the offseason the Lions added Tatum Bell, TJ Duckett, and most notably Calvin Johnson to the fold. Add the fact that Kitna is operating in a Mike Martz offense, and his numbers should be just as good if not better this year, right? You'd be wrong, at least according to ESPN's fantasy projections. ESPN has Kitna porjected to throw for 3 fewer TDs and 900 fewer yards than last year. That has to be a mistake on their part. The Lions' offense loses nothing, and in fact adds three new weapons, and they are projected to be markedly worse? Did someone forget to tell ESPN that Mike Martz loves throwing to RBs, so Tatum Bell coming into town is actually a good thing for the Lions' passing offense? All of that doesn't even take into account that the Lions also made huge improvements at both LG and RT by acquiring Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, respectively. What that all adds up to is this; Kitna could BLOW UP this season, to the point where he might even challenge for a spot in the big six listed above. If you can pick him up as your backup, or have the cajones to wait on him as your starter, you could come out looking like a genius.

Brett Favre: Go ahead and laugh. I am fully aware that Brett Favre has lost a ton of accuracy in recent years, and now throws interceptions by the bunch. That does not mean however, that he is no longer a viable starter in fantasy, especially in 12 team leagues. Just look at the numbers. Favre was 8th in total fantasy points among QBs last year and threw more passes than any QB in the league. Those numbers don't look like the will change much this season. The Packers will continue throwing like crazy now that Ahman Green is gone, and the WR corps is actually improved now that Greg Jennings has a year under his belt and #3 WR Robert Ferguson is returning after missing almost all of last year. Feel free to sleep on Favre, most people will. Some people however, might realize that getting a potential starting QB in the 13th round isn't such a bad deal.

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Agree To Disagree

When the Mike Vick dog-fighting scandal first broke, I didn't quite understand how opinions had become quite so polarized on the issue. There was one side that believed that Vick was guilty as sin, and as such should be kicked off of the Falcons and banned from football for life. On the flip side, there seemed to be a camp that refused to say if he was guilty, and thought that due process should have allowed Vick to play through the season. How is there such a chasm on this issue? The explanation is quite simple really, and if people would take a moment to examine what everyone else is saying they'd see that in this case differing opinions aren't contradictory opinions.

Guilty or Not Guilty: The first great divide in the Vick debate seems fairly straight forward. There is a camp of people that sees seven witnesses ready to testify against Vick, physical evidence of dogfighting at a house that Vick owned, and a money trail so large that it could only lead back to a rich person and comes to the conclusion "I think Vick did it". That is ok, mainly because people's opinions do not have a hard and fast standard of certainty. I have the right to believe something that I see as having a 51% probability of being true. You have the right to believe something you see as having a 1% probability of being true.

While we live in a country that does allow people to form whatever opinion they wish, we also live in a country that operates on the standard of "reasonable doubt" when it comes to guilt in a court case. So...what exactly is "reasonable doubt"? Here is the best definition, as well as the most helpful one in applying the concept to the Vick case; "any doubt which would make a reasonable person hesitate in the most important of his or her affairs." Now for those of you that think Vick is guilty (myself included), ask yourself this question; If your life / family / fortune was on the line, and it depended on correctly answering whether or not Mike Vick was guilty of all of the dog-fighting charges against him, would you hesitate? I know I would, because I haven't seen the evidence in the case. I haven't heard exactly what the witnesses against Vick have to say. I wasn't there, and neither were you (hopefully). In other words, I agree with the people that say that we shouldn't crucify Vick just yet and that we should let the . And I also agree with the people that think Vick is guilty.

Business vs. Fairness: The second aspect of the Vick debate is perhaps the more contentious one. The people that think that the judgement of Vick should be held off till trial also generally believe that Vick shouldn't have his job taken away from him without being convicted of anything. Is it "fair" to get rid of Vick before he is convicted? In the end, probably not. Is it smart business to get rid of Vick right now? Absolutely. You see, the NFL and the Atlanta Falcons don't have to abide by the principle of reasonable doubt. The NFL doesn't have to wait for a conviction to suspend Vick, and the Falcons don't have to let him play in the meantime even if he isn't suspended. In fact, the Falcons would be insane to let him play. Can you imagine the protests? The distractions? The difficulty of Vick preparing for games during the leadup to his trial? The Falcons would lose money, games, and PR points if they let Vick play. Is it fair to him considering that he hasn't been convicted? Nope, but life isn't fair. Look at it this way; let's say you own a 7-11. One day one of your workers (we'll call him Dua for this theoretical) is arrested and charged with dog-fighting. The story makes the front page of your local paper the next day. Now do you let "Dua the Dog-Fighter" continue coming to work until his, knowing that him working at your store will drive away business and perhaps bring harm to both Dua and your property? Of course not. You tell the guy to stay home. Easy choice there, and also an easy choice for the Falcons in this situation. Business decisions don't have to be fair, they just have to be smart.

So are all of these opinions different? Of course. Are they irreconcilable though? No. Maybe now we can all just agree to disagree, with a little better understanding of where everyone else is coming from with their opinions.

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Brady May Not Be A Villain

As the Brady Quinn holdout continues the public opinion of Quinn has continued to plummet. So is Brady the villain in this game? A week ago I wrote an analysis of what Quinn and his agent Tom Condon should be looking for from the Browns based on the rookie contracts of similar players such as Aaron Rodgers. Here is what I wrote at the time;

"First off, he (Quinn) should get higher base compensation so move that $7.7 million to something more like $8.5 million. Then take the guaranteed money and move it from $5.4 million to the $7 million range. Next take the total possible value of the contract after incentives and escalators and move it from $24.52 million to about $28 million."

Up until now I had assumed that a large part of the delay in Quinn's contract negotiations was due to his camp asking for a contract worth substantially more than the deal outlined above. Today news has finally leaked of the parameters asked for by the Quinn camp, and they really aren't that outrageous;

"Under the plan proposed by the Quinn camp, the five-year contract would have a maximum value of about $30 million. If Quinn were to achieve the lowest-level escalators, the deal would be worth $20.25 million. Factoring in the lowest-level escalator values of all the other 2007 first-round choices over a five-year period, the Quinn model would rate as the ninth most valuable."

The hold-up on the Browns end seems to be over what amount of playing time will trigger the escalators in Quinn's contract. Condon's proposal is for Quinn to get an extra $5 million in the final two years of the deal if he plays at least 55% of the snaps in any two of the first three seasons of the deal or 70% of the snaps in any one season. The Browns want the escalators to be more difficult to achieve. The Browns are also looking to decrease the guaranteed money money in the deal from the $8 million proposed by Condon to $7.5 million.

So let me get this straight; Phil Savage is trash talking Quinn on the radio and painting him as the bad guy when he won't give up an extra $500 K in guarantees and wants the escalators to be harder to reach? Give me a break. Either he is going to be the starter or he isn't. If he becomes the starter within the first three years he will play well over 70% of the snaps, and if he doesn't become the starter he'll play well under 55%. What would be a more difficult escalator? And why tick off your future starter over just $500 K?

As far as the triggers for the escalators, All Headline News has this tidbit on what the Browns might be looking for instead of the triggers proposed by Condon:

"Quinn's agent, Tom Condon, wants the No. 22 selection rewarded with incentives based on playing time, while the Browns want a more statistical-based package, including perhaps honors and awards."

So Brady wouldn't just have to be the starter to get paid like a starter, he'd have to be a Pro Bowler within three years? That is more than a bit unreasonable from the Brown's side considering the fact that most young QBs sit out their first season and that Cleveland doesn't exactly have the best weapons on offense to help Quinn succeed right away.

The Browns should make this deal happen. The escalators as proposed above are in line with most young QB's contracts, and the total value proposed really isn't that high for Quinn considering his pedigree and the fact that he plays the game's most important position. For once the player holding out might not be the real villain here; it may well be Browns GM Phil Savage.

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Paparazzo: Levi Brown Seems Fun

Offensive linemen never get any of the fame and glory. I mean, even the most famous linemen aren't really celebs. I honestly don't think I could pick Walter Jones out of a lineup for the life of me. Why is this? Well, in today's sports climate it takes more than just being a good player to be famous; you have to be a personality, and most offensive linemen are boring.

Which brings us to Cardinals' first rounder Levi Brown. Do you know anything about Levi Brown? Nope, me either. I do know though, that Levi seems like an interesting character from these pictures. Enjoy:











Wait...wasn't he drafted by the Cardinals, not the Bucs?

You Might Also Like: Yao's Wedding Poster

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Who Is This Year's "Madden Team"?

A "Madden Team". Even if you have never heard the phrase, you'll recognize what I am talking about as soon as I define it. A Madden Team is a team that is inexplicably better in a videgame than it is in real life, whether that be because of injuries, suspensions, underachieving, or just plain bad rankings by the video game maker. The Redskins of the past five years come to mind. Bad to mediocre on the field, but in Madden you could wreck some people with the Skins. Another one that pops to mind is the Colorado Avalanche of the late 90's. They were good in real life, but the trio of Roy, Sakic, and Forsberg made them unstoppable in video games. The Atlanta Hawks have even been a Madden team in recent years, taking advantage of game developers' tendency to overrate young players to make a roster of Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams much more formidable than it should be.

So who is it going to be in this year's version of Madden? Here are a few early candidates;


Chicago Bears:
No, this doesn't mean that Rex Grossman to be vastly overrated. The Bears' appeal as a potential Madden Team stems entirely from one man; Devin Hester. As has been previously discussed, while the Bears' move of Hester to WR could have minimal impact on the real NFL season it could potentially transform the Bears into a Madden juggernaut. Adding Hester and his first ever 100 speed rating to the offensive side of the ball could lead to players exploiting his abilities in a Reggie Bush type role. If the Madden developers give Hester a catch rating high enough that he can grab a swing pass 4/5 times, watch out. The defense is already stacked, and the addition of Hester just might Rex-proof the Bears' virtual offense.


Detroit Lions:
Even though a gimpy Kevin Jones might not make much of an impact for the Lions this year, he may be the key to the Lions offense being hellish on Madden this year. Jones had an 87 overall rating on last year's game and this year he will be joined in the Lions backfield by Tatum Bell (84 last year) and TJ Duckett (84 last year). The trio of Jones, Bell, and Duckett will give players the best situational set of RBs (besides LT, LT, and LT for the Chargers) in the game. Jones will be a decent every-down back, but the added luxury of having the speedy Bell as a 3rd down / receiving back and having the game's top short yardage guy in Duckett will create matchup nightmares for opposing defenders. That doesn't even take into account that the Lions will also add Calvin Johnson to the WR corps along with Roy Williams, making the virtual version of the Lions offense truly fearsome.


New York Giants:
The Giants have been one of the biggest Madden Teams in recent years, and that doesn't look to change this year. On defense the Giants could have a huge real life/video game discrepancy if Michael Strahan does in fact retire. Strahan had a 97 rating last year, and shouldn't fall off much this year. Where the video game Giants are truly exceptional though, is on offense. For starters, Eli Manning and Jeremy Shockey are always overrated. It has been revealed that Shockey will be a 92 in this year's game, and in spite of being one of the lowest rated QBs in the league since he has been drafted Eli Manning somehow continues to get Madden ratings in the upper 80's (88 last year). Not only do the Giants have overrated players, they have players whose skills are uniquely suited to exploit some of Madden's game play weaknesses. For example, Plaxico Burress' height makes it nearly impossible to stop a player using the Giants from completing high balls to Plaxico on quick slant patterns. In addition to Plaxico the Giants also have Brandon Jacobs, who has one of the highest "Trucking" ratings in the game. What that means is that pretty much anytime a player wants, they can slam Jacobs straight up the gut for 3-4 yards, even on higher difficulty settings. To make matters worse this year, Jacobs overall rating has risen from 80 to 85 and he is joined in the backfield by Reuben Droughns, who also has an extremely high truck rating. One of my friends is a highly rated Madden player on PC, and he uses the Giants and these two strategies almost exclusively.


New England Patriots:
If you didn't already know, the Patriots are the highest rated team in this year's game with a 97 overall team rating. I'm not saying that they don't deserve to be rated that highly but there are a few factors that could cause them to be almost unstoppable in Madden, kind of like how the Colorado Avalanche were good in real life yet unstoppable in video game form. The Patriots have two linebackers that may or may not have much of an impact in real life depending on injuries (Teddy Bruschi and Roosevelt Colvin) who will still be highly rated in the game (Both were rated 89 overall last year). The video game Patriots could also have the services of Asante Samuel even if the real player sits out until week 10. Add those three wild cards to a defense that already features highly rated players such as Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Eugene Wilson, Vince Wilfork, and Adalius Thomas, and you can see why the video game Patriots D will be extremely formidable. On offense the Patriots added Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Dante Stallworth to the WR corp, suddenly turning a poor unit into one of the top 10 in the game. Adding those weapons to Tom Brady and Laurence Maroney will make the Patriots one ridiculously good offense.

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Vince Young Has Your Back Mr. Roby

Training camp fights happen every year in the NFL. It is as much a certainty as rookie holdouts and false Patriots' injury reports. What isn't as common as training camp fights though, are training camp fights involving a franchise player. That is exactly what happened at Titans camp on Wednesday, as Vince Young took exception to a nasty hit applied to TE Courtney Roby by safety Donny Nickey. Here is the video of the altercation (Video via NewsChannel 5.com);

So that you don't think that Vince Young is completely overreacting in this situation, here is a bit of context on the fight;

"A play earlier, Nickey had leveled receiver Joel Filani with a clean hit in the middle of the field as Filani jumped to try to corral a pass."

This might have been one thing if Nickey was a big time player, but we are talking about a guy who primarily plays special teams. For a guy like that to put a big hit on a WR, put a dirty hit on a TE, and then try to fight the franchise QB...well, lets just say Mr. Nickey better hope that the Titans' roster cuts are kind this year.

As for Vince Young? It would always be bad for a QB to throw a punch with his throwing hand, but also consider the fact that Young is on the cover of the upcoming Madden 2008. Given the history of the Madden Curse he is lucky he didn't shatter his hand into a million pieces on Nickey's helmet.

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Jerry Jones Says "Slooooow Down"

Jerry Jones is mad at someone.

Contract holdout Gregg Ellis? Nope.
T.O.? Nope.
New coach Wade Phillips? Not him either.
Redskins owner Dan Snyder? Probably, but he isn't who we are talking about.

Jones is actually a little miffed at his new defensive coordinator Brian Stewart for having the audacity to have the defensive lineman...ugh, it is so disgusting I can barely even say it...he dared to have the defensive linemen run sprints:

Jones was upset with defensive coordinator Brian Stewart after Stewart made the defensive linemen run sprints Monday that left Hatcher with a strained left hamstring.

At a coaches meeting following practice, Jones was angry about the drill being run without the players warming up.

Hatcher was injured when Stewart made the linemen run during special teams practice Monday at the Alamodome. Hatcher, who tied for the team lead with seven quarterback pressures last season, is day-to-day, and he has a slight limp.

Seriously, what on earth was Stewart thinking? Asking a defensive lineman to run more than a few feet at a time? At least Jerry Jones is around to protect these precious creatures, as he obviously appreciates the rare and fragile beings that are linemen. Can't Stewart understand that special teams practice is a time for linemen to drink Gatorade, lie down, have grapes fed to them by concubines, and just generally be fawned over? Jones might need to re-think his hiring of Stewart, I mean, who wants a coach that is actually trying to make the team better?

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OJ Gets Pranked During Interview

OJ Simpson just doesn't know when to stop. Now he is doing a series of interviews with website MN1...yeah, I don't know what on earth it is either...and while half of the show consists of a scripted interview with MN1, the second half is live call-in questions. Did they really think this was going to end well? TMZ blesses us with this highlight video from the call-in portion of OJ's interview. Watch and enjoy as OJ answers questions such as "Do you think it was a bigger feat to break 2,000 yards in one season or slice two necks in one night?" and "Did you kill Bill Walsh?"

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The Giants DE Soap Opera

Jealousy. Betrayal. Infighting. Insults.

Is this the plot of your mom's favorite soap opera?

No, it is just the best way to describe the insane situation going on right now with the New York Giant's defensive ends.

First, Michael Strahan decided that he didn't feel that the Giants were going to contend for a Super Bowl this year and has since been mulling retirement instead of reporting to training camp. An aging star thinking about retiring isn't all that odd, but then you throw in this odd phone tag exchange and things just get a little weird;

"Strahan left a phone message late last night for coach Tom Coughlin. Coughlin returned the call at about 5 a.m. today and got Strahan's voicemail. As of right now, Reese has yet to talk to Strahan, and it's unclear if Coughlin has spoken to the six-time Pro Bowl selection"

Thankfully for the Giants, a perfect replacement for Strahan has just in the market, in the person of the recently released Simeon Rice. Losing the current sack leader among active players and gaining the second place guy doesn't sound like too much of drop off. Well, according to Strahan's good buddy/fellow defensive end Osi Umenyiora, it is actually a terrible idea. Smell a little bias in this one, especially considering Umenyiora and Strahan share an agent? Umenyiora has laid out quite the welcome mat for Simeon Rice in the past few days;

"We're not talking about Julius Peppers," Umenyiora said, comparing Rice to the Panthers' stud defensive end. "Simeon Rice is an outstanding pass rusher, but that's what he is."

"I'm not going to go so far as to call him, whatever, what a lot of other people have called him, but people say he's not the best run player," Umenyiora said. "I guess people gave him that reputation for a reason."

"That's kind of crazy, to ask me to move to left defensive end because Simeon Rice is coming in," he said. "It's ridiculous. He can't play left defensive end; that's where teams run the ball at. If the team asks me 'We need you to move to left defensive end because we need you at that position,' I will, but I'm not going to move to left defensive end because Simeon Rice is coming in."

So Osi...you do realize that this guy is probably going to be your teammate in a week or two, right? It might not be the greatest idea to diss his talent, call him one dimensional, and state your unwillingness to accomodate his being on the team, all in one interview. Listening to Umenyiora talk about Rice is like hearing a teenage girl ripping some young hussy that is moving in on a friend's ex-boyfriend. "Psst. I heard Simeon Rice stuffs his shoulder pads, pass it on."

All is not lost though. The Giants still have another promising young DE in Mathias Kiwanuka...oh, except that they moved Kiwanuka to LB, and have said he isn't going back. Well, I'm sure Mathias is doing pretty well at his new position, right? Yes, if you define "doing well" as "getting burned on a pass play by a guard";

The Giants did not practice yesterday but Kiwanuka was still smarting about what transpired in Sunday's afternoon session. Lining up for a field goal, holder Jeff Feagles put on a "Fire" call, which simulates a bad snap. Feagles took the ball, rolled to his right and fired a perfect pass to Seubert, who once played some tight end at Western Illinois. The burly Seubert went slightly airborne to make the catch, with Kiwanuka trailing.

"I think I got both feet off the ground," Seubert deadpanned. "I don't think [Kiwanuka] saw the ball. I guess I can jump a little higher than he can. They should honor me as a receiver now. Jeremy or me, there's no difference."

To recap...one of your starting DEs is threatening to retire, your other starting DE is talking smack about the first guy's potential replacement, and your third best pass rusher is getting burned by an offensive lineman on a passing play. Have fun with that Tom Coughlin.

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As The Daunte Turns

Do you want to know the definition of a really bad day for an NFL QB?

It's when a team chooses to sign Tim Couch instead of you.

That is exactly what happened to Daunte Culpepper this weekend, as the Jaxsonville Jaguars decided to go with the NFL's version of Nikoloz Tskitishvili instead of Daunte. What is especially troublesome about this development for Daunte is that the Jaguars were assumed to be the perfect fit. It was a foregone conclusion that he was going there. So what went wrong? Evidently the deal fell apart because Daunte wanted a one year deal, and the Jaguars were looking for something in the 2-3 year range. In examining the situation, both sides were right to stick to their guns. The Jags want two things, 1.) security behind Byron Leftwich and 2.) someone to push Leftwich. A one year deal would not have really fulfilled either of those needs. For Culpepper, a one year deal will help him prove that he is truly healthy whil allowing him the ability to pursue a starting job next year, or at least get premium backup money. Any contract Culpepper will sign this summer will be at a large discount, so minimizing the length of this deal is to Culpepper's advantage.

Now that the Jaguars are out of the running, where does Daunte land this year?
If you trust John Clayton over at ESPN, Tampa Bay looks like a contender. If that were to actually happen, and the Bucs added Daunte to a stable that already hosts Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski, Luke McCown, and the rights to Jake Plummer, I would quit blogging and apply to become the new Bucs GM, since the current one is obviously an imbecile. All kidding aside, Clayton also throws out the Rams and Ravens as possible destinations for Daunte. I'm not sure where he came up with those two teams but hey, it's John Clayton, so I'll cut him some slack.

The momentum in signing Culpepper however, seems to lie with the Raiders. Culpepper is scheduled to work out for the Raiders in California today, and signing with Oakland just might be the perfect deal for him. JaMarcus Russell is still holding out, and with him unlikely the be ready to start at the beggining of the season the Raiders are looking at starting either Josh McCown or Andrew Walter at QB for the first 6-10 games of the season. Would an 80-90% healthy Culpepper be better than those two guys? Probably. Would starting for half a year be better for Culpepper's free agent chances next year than sitting behind Jeff Garcia in Tampa Bay? Certainly. Is there a better QB for Russell to learn from than Culpepper, the man he is a clone of? Not a chance.

Now...there is one other destination for Culpepper; Minnesota. Ok, maybe Daunte did not leave on the best of terms, but for goodness sakes, the Vikings are headed into the season with Tavaris Jackson as their starter with Brooks Bollinger as the backup. If the Vikings were a baby Zygi Wilf and Minnesota management would be charged with child neglect. Seriously, how can you not at least consider bringing in Daunte for a year? After seeing Jackson flee the pocket constantly and throw interceptions in the few games he played last season, does Brad Childress really believe that he couldn't use one more year of learning before being thrown into the fire? Maybe they are blind up in Minnesota, but Daunte looks like a good fit there to me. Wherever he lands, one thing can be for sure; he won't be looking to stay there long.

Brady Quinn, Meet Reality

The Cleveland Browns have reached contract agreements with two of their top three picks, including third overall pick Joe Thomas. The lone holdout? Brady Quinn of course. Quinn and the Browns find themselves in an odd position. On one hand, the Browns believe that Brady was one of the top players from this year's draft, and that he could possibly be thier quarterback for the next decade so it would figure that they would give him a big contract. On the other hand, Quinn wasn't one of the top players selected in the draft after falling to #22, and as such it would figure that he shouldn't get top ten type money.

The good thing for the Browns in this situation is that even though Quinn's situation is unusual, it is not unique.

Nearly the same exact situation occured just two years ago with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers, like Quinn, had been universally projected to go in the first ten picks of the draft only to fall into the twenties. As such, Rodgers' contract with the Packers is a good starting point in attempting to figure out what Quinn's deal should look like.

Rodgers signed a deal with the Packers for five years and $7.7 million, with $5.4 million in guarantees. The contract also contains escalators and incentives, mainly based on Rodgers ability to become the Packers' starter, that could push the total value of the contract to $24.52 million.

Quinn does have a few factors in his favor that would aid in being able to negotiate a larger deal than Rodgers. For one thing, he was selected two spots higher. He also has both a better pedigree than Rodgers did coming out of college, as well as greater marketing potential for the Browns. The league salary cap has alos gone up in the past two years. Given all of these factors, how much more should Brady expect?

First off, he should get higher base compensation so move that $7.7 million to something more like $8.5 million. Then take the guaranteed money and move it from $5.4 million to the $7 million range. Next take the total possible value of the contract after incentives and escalators and move it from $24.52 million to about $28 million.

What makes this situation so contentious and potentially prolonged however, is the fact that Brady and his agent think Brady should get top ten money. Quinn's agent is Tom Condon, who just happens to represent Matt Leinart. Leinart was selected 10th in last year's darft, and also had the distinction of being the longest holdout of any draft pick from last year.

If Quinn and his agent think he should be paid more like Leinart, let's take a peek at the deal Leinart signed with the Cardinals. Leinart's deal was for six years and a total possible value of $50.8 million, with $14 million guaranteed. Compare those numbers to the contract I proposed above based upon Brady's draft position and history, and you can see that there is about a $7 million gap in guaranteed money and over $20 million difference in total value.

Any advantage the Browns gained in selecting Quinn at the #22 spot would be completely mitigated if they were to go much higher than the $30 million deal proposed above. So how is this situation going to play out? If I had to guess, I'd say that Browns fans should be prepared for a long holdout followed by a year of Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson behind center.

Third Time's A Shame

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl just four seasons ago.

Seems longer than that doesn't it?

In the four years since that Super Bowl victory the Bucs have gone 27-37 and are coming off an especially dismal 4-12 campaign. So what has gone wrong? There are a number of possible answers to that question, but one answer has come to the forefront in the past day after the Bucs cut Simeon Rice. Rice was one of the five defensive stars on Tampa's Super Bowl winning team, along with Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, John Lynch, and Warren Sapp. Rice is also the third casualty of that group, along with Lynch and Sapp. Both of those players have gone on to make Tampa look foolish by continuing to perform at a high level for their new teams. Will Rice continue that trend?

Consider this; Rice had a shoulder injury that should have sidelined him the entire season. Instead of sitting out though, he played eight mostly ineffective games and only amassed two sacks. So after one injury shortened season the Bucs demanded that Rice take a pay cut, or they would release him. He said no, and they cut him. Never mind the fact that Rice 1.) has the second most sacks of any active player and 2.) had turned in five consecutive seasons with 11 sacks or more for the Bucs prior to last year. Have the Bucs learned nothing from how the Lynch and Sapp situations turned out?

Even worse that the prospect of Rice continuing to perform well for another team though, is the damage that the move has done to the team's morale. Just take a look at this qoute;

"[Derrick] Brooks was almost in tears," said Rice, who ran into the Bucs long-standing weakside linebacker in the hotel parking lot just minutes after being told of his fate.

The Bucs players are scared now. Don't believe me? Just ask their punter;

"Shocker, eh?" punter Josh Bidwell said. "I'd better play well because nobody is safe. I'm as shocked as you are."

The obvious question now is whether or not the Bucs made the right move. My gut feeling is that the answer is a resounding "No". An elite pass rusher like Rice doesn't just lose it after one injury. I'd be willing to wager that Rice will get snatched up by another team quickly (Washington...please?), and will make the Bucs rue the day they decided to cut an aging defensive star for money concerns.

It didn't really change their thinking the first two times it happened, did it?