Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Steal The Raiders

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

The Oakland Raiders had the worst offense in all of football last season.

That statement isn't news to any fantasy football player, especially anyone that was unlucky enough to take LaMont Jordan with a first round pick last year. Accordingly, the Raiders' offensive skill players are being treated like lepers in fantasy drafts this season. LaMont Jordan is going on average at the 76th pick in ESPN drafts. Jerry Porter is going 125th. Daunte Culpepper is going undrafted. So are these wise choices by fantasy owners to avoid the Raiders?

No.

Fantasy owners need to examine the context of last season's offensive debacle in Oakland before they write off the entire team. There was a perfect storm of factors that contributed to making the Raiders offense one of the worst in league history;

Shell And Company: Art Shell and offensive coordinator Tom Walsh embarrassed themselves last season. They showed themselves to be relics from a by-gone era two men that did not understand how to run an offense in the modern NFL, much less a team. Joe Gibbs had the same problem in his first season with the Redskins, so he brought in Al Saunders to take over the offense. Shell and Walsh were not afforded the same grace as Gibbs however, and were canned by Al Davis after last year's 2-14 campaign. The fact that the Raiders were employing the most inept head coach and offensive coordinator combo in the NFL last season was the first factor as to why the Raiders were so awful last season. The second reason was also Shell's fault...

WR Drama: Art Shell and Jerry Porter did not hit it off last season in Oakland. So much so that Shell inexplicably benched Porter for almost the entirety of last season. In addition to the loss of Porter, Randy Moss decided to effectively quit eight games in the season. A good coach would have trouble dealing with the loss of two WRs during the season; for a bad coach like Shell, the losses were catastrophic.

LaMont's Injury: Last year was supposed to be the breakout year for LaMont Jordan. He was coming off a 2005 campaign that saw him score 11 TDs and have over 1500 yards of total offense. So how did Shell capatalize on Jordan's talent? By barely running him and never throwing the ball to a back that had 70 receptions and 563 yards receiving the year before. The misuse of Jordan by Shell was downright criminal, and Jordan's season ending injury in the 10th game of the season was probably a blessing. After Jordan went out, the ball carrying duties fell to Justin Fargas. That's a bad thing in case you are keeping score at home.

There were a number of other reasons for the Raiders ineptitude, but those were the main causes. They are also three areas where the Raiders have vastly improved this season. New head coach Lane Kiffin comes from USC with a reputation for running a high powered offense. His offenses at USC also utilized RBs in the receiving game. Kiffin finds himself with a big time weapon in LaMont Jordan, and unlike Shell Kiffin will not waste the chance to use Jordan in the passing game. Kiffin's offensive philosophy will certainly garner more points than Shell's did last year. Also working in the Raider's favor is the vast upgrades in offensive personnel that have been made during the off-season. Consider; at RB last season the Raiders had a hobbled Jordan a plus Justin Fargas. Now they have a healthy Jordan and have added Dominic Rhodes through free agency and drafted Michael Bush out of Louisville. At WR Porter (who had back to back 900 yard seasons before last year's benching) seems primed to step into the #1 role after years of playing second fiddle to Tim Brown, Jerry Rice, and Randy Moss. Joining him is Ronald Curry. At TE the Raiders used their 2nd round pick on the dangerous Zach Miller to replace the unproductive Courtney Anderson. At QB the Raiders have ditched the cancerous Aaron Brooks and have added both Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown. Either of those new QBs signify an upgrade over last season. The Raiders did not stop there; they also signed one of the best FBs in the NFL, Justin Griffith, during the off-season. For the sake of comparison, lets see what these offseason moves look like take all together:

Lost:
Art Shell
QB Aaron Brooks
WR Randy Moss
TE Courtney Anderson

Gained:
Lane Kiffin
QB Josh McCown
QB Daunte Culpepper
RB Michael Bush
RB Dominic Rhodes
WR Jerry Porter
TE Zach Miller
FB Justin Griffith

The end result is obvious; the Raiders have signifigantly improved every single offense skill position since the end of last season. They also have a coach now that actually knows a thing or two about putting points on the board. The Raiders have also scored two offensive TDs in the first half of all three of their preseason games thus far. This isn't last year's Raiders team. In fact, it doesn't even resemble it one bit. So if you are looking for a steal in your fantasy draft, jump on Porter, Jordan, and Culpepper. They may not end up being studs, but they will end up being far more valuable than the price you will have to pay for them.

Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Myth Of LJ

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

So late this week I got an e-mail from reader AJ that I think illustrates an important divide in fantasy football circles at present. AJ wrote:

"I am a huge fantasy football fan. I play in multiple espn.com leagues and I am in another one that is coming up soon. The reason this one is important is because I am playing against my friends so all bragging rights are on the table. My question is about Larry Johnson. Is he a stretch at the third or fourth pick of my draft? His line isn't what it once was and the Chiefs passing game is horrible. This means there will be 8 guys in the box keying on Johnson. So is Johnson a better pick than someone like Willie Parker or Joseph Addai? If you have the time to respond to my question it would be greatly appreciated."

What the question boils down to is this; how risky is LJ this year? As AJ outlines above, there are three major reasons that have been posited as to why LJ should be worn down this year. He had too many carries last year, his offensive line is in a shambles, and the passing offense is terrible. To evaluate where LJ should go in your fantasy draft in light of these factors lets examine them each individually:

The 416 Carries: If someone is telling you that LJ is going to have a down year, this is most likely why. As ESPN.com notes on their fantasy projection of Johnson;

"Since 2000, seven NFL backs have lugged 370 carries or more in a season. Collectively, that group averaged roughly 726 yards and 8 TDs fewer in the follow-up season. Four of them missed at least four games".

Pretty scary numbers eh? The problem I have with those numbers though, are that they are completely devoid of context and are very limiting in their scope because they do not factor in receptions. Consider this; in terms of total offensive touches last season, LJ toted the rock 457 times last season. For comparison, LT had a combined 429 offensive touches last year, including the playoff game against New England. Are LT's 429 touches going to keep anyone from drafting him #1? Of course not. In fact, check out Tomlinson's entire career in term of offensive touches. In 2002 LT had 451 combined offensive touches and had over 2100 total yards and 15 TDs. The next year he had 413 combined touches, 2300 total yards, and 17 TDs. Not exactly a down season right? If LT can still be an elite back after multiple 400+ touch seasons, why not LJ? If anything, LJ is the perfect back to have had such a heavy season. He played three seasons at Penn State, but was only the starter for one year. He has been in the NFL for four years but has only been a starter for two and a half. Think about that. LJ only has 3.5 years of "tread" on his legs. Don't let one heavy season of work scare you away.

The O-Line: The second big point that has been made against LJ is that his offensive line has greatly declined. Let's take a look at whether or not that is actually true. Last year the Chiefs were starting LT Jordan Black, LG Brian Waters, C Wiegmann, RG Will Shields, and RT John Welbourn. The main problem with the line last year was that Willie Roaf unexpectedly retired, leaving the Chiefs to scramble to fill the LT spot. They tried Kyle Turley and a number of other options, but nothing really seemed to stick. For this year, the line had another heavy blow with the loss of Pro Bowler Will Shields, but if you look beyond the loss of Shields the line may well be improved over last season. Welbourn has moved to RG, Brian Waters and Wiegmann are still starting, Damion McIntosh is an improvement at LT. The big question mark is Chris Terry at RT. Terry has had a number of issues off the field, and is a bit of a project right now. Overall though, the line really isn't bad. LJ still had nearly 2200 total yards and 19 TDs last year after losing Roaf, and this year he might have a more stable overall line to run behind, even with the loss of Shields.

The Passing Game: This is where the going gets tough. AJ raises an excellent point in his question; if the Chiefs start Brodie Croyle there will indeed be eight guys in the box waiting to hit LJ in the mouth. Luck has smiled upon fantasy players however, as just half an hour ago Damon Huard was named the starter for the Chiefs. Hooray! Fantasy owners rejoice! Huard played extremely well last season, and the Chiefs have the same exact offensive weapons as they did last year plus the addition of first round WR Dwayne Bowe. As long as Huard is back there, LJ is safe.

So the final verdict? LJ is more than fine for this year. Personally I think it is a toss up between him and Frank Gore at the 3-4 spots, but if he is there at #4 I would snatch him up. Good luck AJ, and if anyone else has a question they would like addressed just send it in to turnoverbattle@gmail.com.

Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Bye, Bye

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Bye week. Next to "injury report", those two words are perhaps the most important for fantasy owners to pay attention to during the season. A fantastic team can be crippled by not paying attention to a bye week, and if you are not able to react quickly or well enough your QB or #1 RB's bye week can lead to a loss to an inferior fantasy squad. Most players are very careful about observing their RBs bye weeks when drafting, so that they never have more than one starter out at a time. What might be worse than having your two RBs out at the same time however, is having your QB and your top RB out the same week. If that happens, you can almost automatically chalk up a loss for the week.

To help avoid such a problem, I have compiled a list of the starting RBs that have a bye week the same week as each of the top 10 fantasy QBs:

Peyton Manning: Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Carson Palmer: Brian Westbrook (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Drew Brees: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis (White/Henry/Brown, Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Tom Brady: Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, Carnell Williams

Marc Bulger: Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs

Donovan McNabb: Rudi Johnson (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Matt Hasselbeck: Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James, Jerrious Norwood (Julius Jones/Marion Barber)

Vince Young: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister (Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Philip Rivers: Jamal Lewis (Brandon Jackson/Vernand Morency, DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams)

Jon Kitna: Wilie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry, Joseph Addai (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Two players from this list jump out as me as problems; Peyton Manning and Vince Young.

Peyton: If you have Peyton Manning this year, the likelihood is that you selected him somewhere in the frist round. If so, you are already a little bit behind when it comes to the RB derby, as every single one of your opponents is likely to have a top ten RB while you are left with the scraps. Now take a look at the RBs that have the same bye week as Peyton. Were you thinking about getting Willie Parker at the top of the second round? Forget it. Travis Henry? Same. Marshawn Lynch in the 3rd or 4th round? Nix that idea too. Although Peyton will certainly give you big numbers this year, just remember that his bye week is likely to give you a headache both then, and during your draft.

Vince: Nevermind the fact that I don't think Vince is a good choice as your starting QB. Lets say you do pick him. Take a gander at the bevy of top 20 RBs that are going to be out the same week as Vince; Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister. Youch. If you take Vince as your starter, make sure to pay special attention to the composition of your RB depth chart, or you could find yourself hurting come Week 4.


Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Good News Injury

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

This weekend Travis Henry of the Broncos sprained the MCL in his left knee. What this likely means from a fantasy perspective is that Henry will see a decline on draft boards.

This is great news.

How so? First off you need to realize that Henry is already being undervalued in most fantasy drafts. Henry is rated as the #14 RB by ESPN and #13 by Yahoo. As of right now, all it takes to get Henry is a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. History would say that he will be much more valuable than such a pick. Henry's move to the Broncos has been much discussed in fantasy circles, but few people realize just how signifigant the move is for Henry's production. To illustrate, here are some average numbers from the Broncos rushing attack over the past five seasons:

Average Yards Per Rush: 4.72

Average Carries For Feature Back: 262

Average TDs For High TD Back: 12

Now lets say that Henry just has an "average" season for a Broncos feature back based on those numbers. Based on those numbers Henry would have roughly 1,230 yards and 12 TDs, which would be good for 195 fantasy points. That total does not even take into account any points for receiving yards, yet last season it would have been good for 9th best among running backs. The scary thing is that Henry is in fact a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, having had career highs of 43 receptions and 309 yards in 2002. For his career Henry has averaged 11.5 receiving yards per game, which over a full season would translate into 184 yards. Now add those 18 points to Henry's total and he would be at 213 fantasy points. Again, these numbers reflect what Henry's numbers would look like if he has an average season for a Broncos RB.

What this all translates into is that Henry will likely have a season worthy of a lower end #1 fantasy RB if he just has an average season. If he excells in the Broncos system, he could become a middle to upper level fantasy #1. Yet he is routinely available in the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds of fantasy drafts, and with his injury scared fantasy owners now have an excuse to drop him even lower. Don't be fooled; snapping up Travis Henry could be both a great value and the key to a great fantasy season, so be thankful that his injury will scare enough people off so you can pick him.

Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Final Round Sleepers

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

The final round pick. It is perhaps the most overlooked pick in fantasy football drafts, yet it can also be one of the most important. By the time the 16th round rolls around, most people are ready to go, eager to evaluate how their team is going to stack up. Most of the time the only players left in the final round are 3rd and 4th string WRs and RBs or low level QBs such as Brodie Croyle, Jeff Garcia, and Jason Campbell. Many fantasy players use the 16th round to finally pick up a kicker or a defense. In all these cases, the last pick is a throwaway pick.

I have news for you; it doesn't have to be.

Your last pick can in fact become a very valuable asset to your fantasy team, but in order for that to happen you have to take the time to carefully identify situations where a sleeper can evolve. For example, last year injury concerns and a criminally low ranking by ESPN and Yahoo allowed me to grab Kellen Winslow in the final round of all of my fantasy drafts. Winslow went on to be the #6 fantasy TE last season, a fantastic bargain for a 16th round pick. Onto the big question; who are this year's final round steals?

Jacoby Jones: Don't feel bad if you don't know who Jacoby Jones is yet. Jones was drafted this year by the Texans out of Division II Lane College after a great showing at the combine. Jones was known in college for being both a great receiver as well as an explosive kick returner. The Texans seem to have already penciled Jacoby in as their punt returne, but the truly intriguing thing about Jones is that he is currently in a close battle with Kevin Walter for the #2 WR position opposite Andre Johnson. If Jones were to get the starting spot he could become a huge steal in the final round of fantasy drafts. With defenses concentrating on Andre Johnson and Ahman Green Lane could find himself the beneficiary of lax coverage. Combine that with his potential for punt return TDs, and Lane could see his fantasy production as a rookie fall somewhere between Greg Jennings and Marques Colston. Don't believe in him yet? Check his stat line from tonight's preseason game; 2 rushes for 24 yards, 2 receptions for 32 yards, and an 80 yard punt return for a TD.

Devin Hester: Hester is a player that every fantasy owner should be familiar with. Now granted, his new role as a WR in the Bears' offense will not likely garner very many yards or consistent outings. Hester is a gadget player on offense, nothing more. What he also happens to be however, is perhaps the most explosive player in the NFL. Even if Hester only gets a minimal number of touches this year, does anyone really doubt that he won't be able to turn at least a few of them into scores? While Hester won't garner you many yardage points, he may well score the most TDs of any player that is available in the final round of fantasy drafts. You don't need me to tell you that TDs are fantasy gold.

T.J. Duckett, Greg Jones, Michael Robinson, and Tony Hunt: Why on earth would you want to pick one of these mainly anonymous backup RBs? Two words; Touchdown Vulture. Each of these backs are in high octane offenses where the RB they are backing up is either 1.) undersized or 2.) prone to fumbling. Every Frank Gore fantasy owner from last season remembers his goal line fumbles, and you can bet that Mike Nolan remembers them as well. Robinson should see the vast majority of the carries inside the 10 yard line. T.J. Duckett is of course the perrenial TD vulture, and backing up the small and fumble prone Tatum Bell sets him up for another 7-10 TD season. Greg Jones will be the short yardage cog of the three headed Jaguars rushing machine, and will greatly reduce the value of Maurice Jones-Drew. Tony Hunt is the ultra sleeper of this group. The Eagles are well aware of Brian Westbrook's injury history, and in recent years they have featured Correll Buckhalter heavily to spell Westbrook. Hunt, a rookie out of Penn St., could step into the short yardage duties for the Eagles as well as challenge Buckhalter for the secondary carries. Also, if Westbrook goes down to injury Hunt could become a real threat as a fantasy back.

Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Beware Maurice Jones-Drew

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

I'm sure you've seen the commercial. You know, the ESPN one for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame, where a fantasy owner gives a teary testimonial about how Maurice Jones-Drew won his fantasy league for him. Great commercial. The dark side of that story however, is that that commercial and the subsequent overrating of Jones-Drew in fantasy football projections is going to produce the exact opposite result this year;

Maurice Jones-Drew will make you lose your fantasy league.

To understand why this is true, you first need to understand what produced the Jones-Drew phenomena last season. Jones-Drew rushed for nearly 1,000 yards, had over 400 yards receiving, and scored a mind-boggling 16 total TDs. There are many reasons for why Jones-Drew was able to have such a high level of success. Lets take a look at the factors that culminated in the perfect storm for Jones-Drew's breakout year;

1. Leftwich's Injury: Did you ever wonder how the Jaguars were able to give both Fred Taylor and Jones'Drew so many carries last year? The reason was simple; they weren't passing. Byron Leftwich was injured and missed the final 10 games of the season, forcing David Garrard into the starting role. The offensive coaching staff did not have nearly as much confidence in Garrard as they did in Leftwich, resulting in shift in offensive philosophy over the final 10 games of the season. In the first 6 games when Leftwich was the starter, the Jags averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game. Over the final 10 games they averaged 26 pass attempts per game. The end result of the change from Leftwich to Garrard was that there were more carries for Jones-Drew, as well as an emphasis on shorter passes, i.e. to Jones-Drew.

2. Taylor's Injury: People seem to forget about this one, but Fred Taylor was injured in the Jags 13th game of the season and barely played in the final three weeks. During those three weeks Jones-Drew accumulated 25% of his TD total, 29% of his rushing total, and 24% of his receiving total.

3. Jones' Injury: This is the one that nobody is taking into consideration. Last season the Jaguar's stud FB Greg Jones missed the entire year with a torn ACL. Not familiar with him? He is 6-1 and 255 lbs of pure nasty, and happens to be one of the best short-yardage runners in the NFL. While Jones was gone last season Jones-Drew assumed the short yardage duties and scored 7 of his 13 rushing TDs from within 6 yards.

So now that we've taken a look at what made the Maurice Jones-Drew monster last year, it is time to evaluate whether or not he will be in a similar situation this year. Here is a look at some factors that lead me to believe that Jones-Drew will not have anywhere near the same kind of fantasy impact this season:

1. Leftwich Returns: Remember how Jones-Drew emerged last season after the Jags lost Leftwich and became a run based offense? Well, Byron is back and healthy this year so that should reduce Jones-Drew's number of carries. Also keep in mind that Leftwich is also in a contract year, so an even greater emphasis might be put on the pass.

2. Jones Returns: Those 7 short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew scored last year? This year those carries will be going to Greg Jones. Right off the bat that takes away a ton of Jones-Drew's fantasy appeal. It is pretty hard to expect a backup running back to score a lot of TDs when he no longer will be getting the goal-line carries.

3. Taylor Remains: People seem to forget that Fred Taylor is still on the Jags, and that he is still their starter at RB. Not only that, he is still very productive. Last year he averaged a career best 5.0 yards per carry while gaining over 1,100 yards. Taylor also recently signed a contract extension through 2010, so anyone that thinks that Jones-Drew is going to be taking any of the starter carries away from Taylor this year needs to wake up.

4. Introducing Dirk Koetter: Dirk Koetter...that name sounds really familiar. Oh yeah, he was the coach at Arizona State for the past 6 years until he was fired last October. Oh, and he also happens to be the new offensive coordinator for the Jaguars this season. Now if any of you remember Arizona State's offense from the past 6 years you'll remember one key thing; they passed, and they passed a whole lot. Koetter runs an offense that is based on the vertical passing game, one that seems well-suited to a team that has Byron Leftwich and high draft picks such as Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Marcedes Lewis to whom to throw passes. What this means is that the Jaguars are going to be throwing a lot more this season than they did last year. Last season the Jaguars threw 446 times while rushing 513 times. Now lets take a look at the pass / run split from the Jags' first pre-season game with Koetter in charge of the offense; 39 passes, 29 rushes. Besides the general tendency towards passing, Koetter's offenses have also been very kind to TEs. What that means is that Marcedes Lewis will likely get a large number of the short to medium range looks that would have otherwise gone to Jones-Drew.

Now lets play connect the dots. The Jags starter at QB is back and the new offensive coordinator loves to pass almost as much as Mike Martz and Dennis Green, so that means that the Jags will have fewer total rushing attempts. Greg Jones is back, which means that not only will he cut into Jones-Drew's total rushing attempts, but he will also take away the cheap short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew had so many of last season. Throw on top of that the fact that Fred Taylor is still the starter and that the new offensive coordinator loves passing to TEs in the intermediate passing game and I think it is pretty easy to see that Maurice Jones-Drew is in a situation where he is going to see his total carries, rushing TDs, and his role in the passing games drastically reduced.

So how is it that ESPN and Yahoo are ranking him as a 2nd round pick in fantasy?

To answer that question you must examine what stats those two sources are projecting for Jones-Drew this season. ESPN has him ranked as the #21 overall fantasy player, and has the following stat projections;

141 ATT, 823 YDS, 49 REC, 476 YDS, 8 Total TDs

With the emphasis on the passing game and the increased competition for backfield carries the 8 total TDs is a tad high for my taste. What is really absurd here however, is the fact that these projections assume that Jones-Drew is going to average 5.8 yards per carry. If you reduce that number to a more reasonable projection of 5.0 yards per carry than the projected rushing yards plummet to 700. The 49 receptions also seem a bit high considering that Koetter likes the TE better in the intermediate passing game, and the fact that Greg Jones may well be a better receiving option out of the backfield than Jones-Drew.

Yahoo has an even rosier projection for Jones-Drew, ranking him #16 overall with the following stat line:

1,172 YDS rushing, 111 YDS receiving, 13 total TDs (12.5 rushing)

Those projections, to put it kindly, are insane. To approach that number of rushing yards Jones-Drew would have to get 200 carries while averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Jones-Drew is not going to even sniff that number of carries this year. No way, no how. The more asinine part of the projection is the 12-13 rushing TDs. For the reasons listed above, Jones-Drew is very unlikely to be near that ballpark.

So what do I think Jones-Drew's stats will look like this year? This would be my estimate;

700 YDS rushing, 350 YDS receiving, 5 total TDs

What that comes out to is 135 fantasy points. I don't know about you, but I think there are a lot of players in the first or second round that are going to get me more than 135 fantasy points. So don't say that you haven't been warned; taking Maurice Jones-Drew with a high pick is going to kill your fantasy team.

Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The QB Cliff

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Every fantasy football player knows that running back is the most important position to fill in fantasy football. Even if you are stacked at RB however, your team can be hamstrung if you don't have a viable starter at quarterback. So who do you need to take this year to ensure yourself a good shot at winning your league? More so than many other years, the answer is simple; take one of these six QBs:

Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Carson Palmer
Tom Brady
Marc Bulger
Donovan McNabb

In ESPN live drafts thus far all of these QBs have been off the board on average by the 40th pick. So it will cost you a 1st-4th round pick to do it, but you'll be set at the QB spot all season with one of these guys. If you pass on the members of the above group, the production drop-off is extremely steep after McNabb. In ESPN drafts the next QB drafted is Matt Hasselbeck, at an average pick of 55.2. The QB cliff is so steep in fact, that only four other QBs not in the top six (Hasselbeck, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo) even have an average pick in the first eight rounds of ESPN drafts. Yahoo drafts are seeing a similar pattern, with the only real difference being the inclusion of Jon Kitna in the first 80 picks on average.

As far as the production drop-off after the top six, just go take a look at last year's final fantasy stats for QBs. There is a clear divide after the top six, so grabbing one of them gives you a tremendous advantage at the QB spot over 4-6 of the other teams in your league, depending on size. Think of it this way; if you go RB-RB-WR with your first three picks, how can you justify taking a guy like Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss, Marion Barber III, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Ahman Green if Bulger and McNabb are still on the table? The talent drop-off between third and fourth tier RBs and second and third tier WRs is not nearly as steep as the drop-off at QB after the big six, so unless you have a dynamite sleeper pick you are better off going QB by round 4.

Now on to two QBs I think are overrated and two I think are great sleepers for this year;

You'll Be Dissapointed In:

Vince Young: I really can't remember a fantasy QB being as vastly overrated going into a season as Vince Young is this year. ESPN has him rated 8th among QBs, and Yahoo has him ranked 7th. Why do they have him ranked so high? If you delve deeper into the projections each site has for Young, the answer becomes glaringly obvious. ESPN has Young projected for 7 rushing TDs this season, and Yahoo has him down for 8.7. Unless Young hits those totals (good for 42-54 fantasy points) there is no way on earth you can project him as a top ten QB. He lost his workhorse RB in Travis Henry and the team just isn't very talented at WR, especially after losing Drew Bennett to the Rams this offseason. So just how crazy is it to assume Young will have 7-9 rushing TDs? Let me put it like this; Mike Vick has a career high of 8 rushing TDs, and only 21 total rushing TDs in his entire six year career. You're telling me I should just assume then that Vince Young is more of a socring threat on the ground than Vick? I'll pass on that one thank you.

Matt Leinart: Leinart is one of the middle of the pack QBs in fantasy this season, and if you want to take a flier on him as a backup he really isn't that bad of a choice. Penciling him in as your starter though, is a recipe for disaster. Most casual fans probably don't realize the impact that the head coaching change in Arizona from Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt will have on the Cardinals' offense this year. Green is known for running a high flying aerial offense, one that made both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald into fantasy stars in recent years. As for Whisenhunt? Um...have you watched a Steelers game in the last few years? In Whisenhunt's three seasons in charge of the Steelers' offense Pittsburgh ranked in the top ten in rushing yards every single year, and in the top ten in passing yards only once. Translation; More Edge, less Leinart now that Whisenhunt is at the helm.

You'll Be Suprised By:

Jon Kitna: Do you want to know how good Kitna is going to be this year? Just think about it logically for a second. Last year he threw for over 4200 yards, had 20+ TDs, and ranked 7th among all QBs in total fantasy points last season, even with Kevin Jones missing a third of the year. During the offseason the Lions added Tatum Bell, TJ Duckett, and most notably Calvin Johnson to the fold. Add the fact that Kitna is operating in a Mike Martz offense, and his numbers should be just as good if not better this year, right? You'd be wrong, at least according to ESPN's fantasy projections. ESPN has Kitna porjected to throw for 3 fewer TDs and 900 fewer yards than last year. That has to be a mistake on their part. The Lions' offense loses nothing, and in fact adds three new weapons, and they are projected to be markedly worse? Did someone forget to tell ESPN that Mike Martz loves throwing to RBs, so Tatum Bell coming into town is actually a good thing for the Lions' passing offense? All of that doesn't even take into account that the Lions also made huge improvements at both LG and RT by acquiring Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, respectively. What that all adds up to is this; Kitna could BLOW UP this season, to the point where he might even challenge for a spot in the big six listed above. If you can pick him up as your backup, or have the cajones to wait on him as your starter, you could come out looking like a genius.

Brett Favre: Go ahead and laugh. I am fully aware that Brett Favre has lost a ton of accuracy in recent years, and now throws interceptions by the bunch. That does not mean however, that he is no longer a viable starter in fantasy, especially in 12 team leagues. Just look at the numbers. Favre was 8th in total fantasy points among QBs last year and threw more passes than any QB in the league. Those numbers don't look like the will change much this season. The Packers will continue throwing like crazy now that Ahman Green is gone, and the WR corps is actually improved now that Greg Jennings has a year under his belt and #3 WR Robert Ferguson is returning after missing almost all of last year. Feel free to sleep on Favre, most people will. Some people however, might realize that getting a potential starting QB in the 13th round isn't such a bad deal.

Bookmark WTB!
Press [Ctrl + D]