Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.comThis weekend Travis Henry of the Broncos sprained the MCL in his left knee. What this likely means from a fantasy perspective is that Henry will see a decline on draft boards.
This is great news.
How so? First off you need to realize that Henry is already being undervalued in most fantasy drafts. Henry is rated as the #14 RB by ESPN and #13 by Yahoo. As of right now, all it takes to get Henry is a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. History would say that he will be much more valuable than such a pick. Henry's move to the Broncos has been much discussed in fantasy circles, but few people realize just how signifigant the move is for Henry's production. To illustrate, here are some average numbers from the Broncos rushing attack over the past five seasons:
Average Yards Per Rush: 4.72
Average Carries For Feature Back: 262
Average TDs For High TD Back: 12
Now lets say that Henry just has an "average" season for a Broncos feature back based on those numbers. Based on those numbers Henry would have roughly 1,230 yards and 12 TDs, which would be good for 195 fantasy points. That total does not even take into account any points for receiving yards, yet last season it would have been good for 9th best among running backs. The scary thing is that Henry is in fact a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, having had career highs of 43 receptions and 309 yards in 2002. For his career Henry has averaged 11.5 receiving yards per game, which over a full season would translate into 184 yards. Now add those 18 points to Henry's total and he would be at 213 fantasy points. Again, these numbers reflect what Henry's numbers would look like if he has an average season for a Broncos RB.
What this all translates into is that Henry will likely have a season worthy of a lower end #1 fantasy RB if he just has an average season. If he excells in the Broncos system, he could become a middle to upper level fantasy #1. Yet he is routinely available in the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds of fantasy drafts, and with his injury scared fantasy owners now have an excuse to drop him even lower. Don't be fooled; snapping up Travis Henry could be both a great value and the key to a great fantasy season, so be thankful that his injury will scare enough people off so you can pick him.
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