NFL Coaching Vacancies Filled in Mile High and LeBronless

It's not necessary to put both of these coaching hires in a separate blog.  Why not do them both in one. I like one of the hires very much, but the other one I am not so sure about.

Denver Broncos:  The Fightin' Tim Tebows have hired John Fox as their new coach.  This is an excellent hire for the Broncos even though Fox went 2-14 with Carolina last season. What people will forget is how badly the Panthers management treated Fox.  They never re-signed good players, and relied on Jake Delhomme for far too long. Fox always seemed like a guy who can beat up on the weaker part of the NFL, and never be very strong against the big boys. The reason for saying that is Fox never had consecutive winning seasons.  It will be interesting to see what he does with Tim Tebow.  I hope he starts him next year, but I could totally see them going with Kyle Orton or a street free agent.

Cleveland Browns: The Walrus also known as Mike Holmgren decided to go with Pat Shurmur, the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams.  The last name should sound familiar to Packer fans as his Uncle Fitz was Holmgren's defensive coordinator during the 1996 Super Bowl year and many more. Pat Shurmur helped the careers of Sam Bradford and Donovan McNabb in their early stages, and Cleveland hopes he can do the same with Colt McCoy.  He also runs a West Coast offense close to what The Walrus did in Green Bay and Seattle.  
       This is a first time hire, but the Browns could off and running if they add some help in the off season. They have a solid quarterback and running back combination plus if they add A.J. Green from Georgia, it would provide a bright future on the offensive side of the ball. In my opinion, The Walrus and Tom Heckert (the General Manager) wanted somebody they could work with and knew wouldn't cause them any problems.  It's an interesting, but good choice today, we will see come November.

-Charlie.

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Good News Injury

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

This weekend Travis Henry of the Broncos sprained the MCL in his left knee. What this likely means from a fantasy perspective is that Henry will see a decline on draft boards.

This is great news.

How so? First off you need to realize that Henry is already being undervalued in most fantasy drafts. Henry is rated as the #14 RB by ESPN and #13 by Yahoo. As of right now, all it takes to get Henry is a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. History would say that he will be much more valuable than such a pick. Henry's move to the Broncos has been much discussed in fantasy circles, but few people realize just how signifigant the move is for Henry's production. To illustrate, here are some average numbers from the Broncos rushing attack over the past five seasons:

Average Yards Per Rush: 4.72

Average Carries For Feature Back: 262

Average TDs For High TD Back: 12

Now lets say that Henry just has an "average" season for a Broncos feature back based on those numbers. Based on those numbers Henry would have roughly 1,230 yards and 12 TDs, which would be good for 195 fantasy points. That total does not even take into account any points for receiving yards, yet last season it would have been good for 9th best among running backs. The scary thing is that Henry is in fact a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, having had career highs of 43 receptions and 309 yards in 2002. For his career Henry has averaged 11.5 receiving yards per game, which over a full season would translate into 184 yards. Now add those 18 points to Henry's total and he would be at 213 fantasy points. Again, these numbers reflect what Henry's numbers would look like if he has an average season for a Broncos RB.

What this all translates into is that Henry will likely have a season worthy of a lower end #1 fantasy RB if he just has an average season. If he excells in the Broncos system, he could become a middle to upper level fantasy #1. Yet he is routinely available in the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds of fantasy drafts, and with his injury scared fantasy owners now have an excuse to drop him even lower. Don't be fooled; snapping up Travis Henry could be both a great value and the key to a great fantasy season, so be thankful that his injury will scare enough people off so you can pick him.

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Shanahan: The Gruden of the D-Line

Much has been made of Jon Gruden's affinity for quarterbacks this offseason. The Bucs already had Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski, but Gruden still saw fit to bring in Jeff Garcia in free agency and then make a trade for Jake Plummer. So Gruden has the greatest affinity for any one position of any NFL coach, right?

Nope.

Mike Shanahan's love for defensive linemen is making Gruden look uncommitted.

Most people are aware of the situation in the past year where the Broncos brought in essentially an entire D-Line's worth of former Cleveland Browns. That is just the tip of the iceberg however, as this offseason Shanahan has gone even deeper in his D-Line love. Yesterday the Broncos traded for Jimmy Kennedy. Four days ago they signed Sam Adams. During the draft the Broncos drafted defensive ends Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss in the first two rounds. The Broncos now have 8 first or second round picks on their D-line, and that does not even include pass rush specialist Elvis Dumervil or the troubled tackle Marcus Thomas that the Broncos selected in the fourth round this year.

So how can the Broncos afford such extravagance on the D-Line? And how can all of these guys get playing time?

Well, Crowder, Moss, Thomas, Dumervil, and Kennedy are still signed to their rookie contracts, and Sam Adams' contract is only for one year at a modest $750K base salary. Other linemen such as Ebenezer Ekuban, John Engelberger, Kenard Lang, and Gerard Warren are also signed to bargain basement prices after disappointing during their original rookie contracts. The end result is that although the Broncos have a lot of bodies and draft pedigree on their D-Line, the salary cap impact of the group is extremely minimal.

In terms of playing time, the group is essentially now a situational platoon. At defensive end the Broncos have run stoppers in Lang and Engelberger, and have the ability to mix Dumervil, Crowder, and Moss in on passing downs. At tackle they can go huge with Kennedy, Warren, and Adams, or they have the option of employing a more athletic front with the likes of Thomas, McKinley, and Demetrin Veal. The philosophy behind this is two fold: the Broncos will be able to react to any type of situational or personnel matchup, and will also be able to keep their line fresh by using rapid substitutions. The Broncos tried a similar tactic last season, albeit with fewer bodies, and had the 12th ranked rushing defense in the NFL and boasted the 15th most sacks in the league. So will the additions of Adams, Kennedy, Thomas, Moss, and Crowder push the Broncos D-Line from the middle of the NFL pack to the upper echelon? The results of this experiment remain uncertain, but rest assured, if it doesn't work out Shanahan will just bring in more defensive linemen, and then some more, and then a few more, then maybe a couple....

Draft Thoughts

In advance of a more detailed analysis of the NFL Draft later this week, I want to point out a few things that stuck out to me from the draft this weekend.

The best trade is when you get your cake and eat it too: In three cases early in the draft teams were able to take advantage of a team desperate to trade up for a particular prospect, while still being able to draft their original target later on.

*The Jets traded with the Panthers to move from #25 to #14 in order to get CB Darrelle Revis, and the Panthers were able to still get LB Jon Beason at #25 while also getting the best center in the draft, Ryan Kalil, with the second round pick acquired in the deal.

*The Broncos traded with the Jags to move from #21 to #17 to get DE Jarvis Moss, and the Jags were still able to get the safety they had coveted all along in Reggie Nelson. The Jags also received a 2nd and a 5th round pick, and consequently shopped the 2nd round pick to Baltimore for a 5, a 6 and a 7. So in the end they got the guy they always wanted, for a little less money, plus four extra late rounders. Nice work.

*The Bills traded with the Lions to move from #43 to #34 and selected Paul Posluzny. The Lions were still able to get Michigan State QB Drew Stanton as well as an additional 2nd Rounder.

These are the types of trades that can turn an organization around, or keep a good one on top. You can never have enough picks.

I guess anyone can be a GM nowadays: There were a striking number of moments early in the draft where the only response a fan could have to their team's pick was a bat through the televison. There are bad value picks, but then there are bad value picks that are made when there is good value in a position of need still on the board. For example:

*The Dolphins selected Ted Ginn Jr. at #9 with Brady Quinn still on the board. Perhaps the Dolphins have a lot more faith in Culpepper than most, or maybe they see more in 2nd Rounder John Beck than others, but with the dissarray at the QB position it would seem asinine to pick a receiver projected by most to go in the middle of the 1st when a potential franchise QB is sitting in the green room.

*The Packers took DT Justin Harrell at #16 with a host of 1st Round caliber WRs available. Not only did they avoid plugging their biggest hole this side of RB, they also went with the second best DT still left, with Alan Branch still on the board.

*The Colts took Anthony Gonzalez at #32 with Alan Branch still sliding. I mean, did you watch a Colts game last year? They don't think they need a DT more than yet another WR?

When these trades are evaluated five years from now, just keep in mind what could have been. Especially you Miami, especially you.

The Broncos like the way the Redskins think: Mike Shanahan really really wanted Jarvis Moss and Marcus Thomas. To get the pick for Moss the Broncos gave up their 1st, a 2nd , and a 5th. For Thomas in the 4th Round they gave up a 6th, a 7th, and...A 3RD NEXT YEAR? Wow, the Broncos better hope these two guys turn out to be something special, because they had to sacrifice 6 picks to get em. I mean, getting rid of draft picks en masse has really worked out well for Washington...

Phil Savage is no dummy: The Browns had a sensational draft. Say what you will about what they had to pay to trade up for Quinn, but in Quinn, Joe Thomas, and Eric Wright (a top 15 talent with background issues) the Browns were able to draft potential 10 year starters at arguably the three most important positions in the NFL: Starting QB, Blindside Tackle, and Shut Down Corner. If you can think of a team that has filled those three positions all in one draft, let me know. I would love to see it.

The going rate for a WR is a 4th Rounder: A 4th Round choice seemed to be all that was needed for teams to get veteran pass catchers, as the Pats were able to get Randy Moss and the 49ers were able to get Darell Jackson for the same price. In addition, the Raiders were able to get Josh McCown and Mike Williams for just one fourth rounder, perhaps showing just how badly the Lions wanted to get rid of #2 of Matt Millen's draft disasters.

Alright, those are my first round of impressions. Later in the week we will roll out a more detailed draft evaluation for each division.