Possible Problem with Cam Newton

I didn't care for Cam Newton at the beginning of the college football year. I thought he was over-hyped. I was dead wrong. He proved to be one of the greatest college athletes of the last decade. I thought he was a straight, running quarterback, but his passing skills proved better than I could have ever expected.

Newton could possibly be the first pick overall in this spring's NFL draft. He is definitely a work-in-process quarterback that will need a lot of work before strong success in the NFL, but I do feel that he will eventually succeed. However, this little clip from Jon Gruden's QB confidential irked me quite a bit.

I first saw this clip on Czabe.com, written by excellent radio host Steve Czaban. Newton could not remember a complicated play call off the top of his head, and then he stated that his offense was "simplistic for fast."

If I were a GM or fan for one of the top teams in the draft, I would shudder a little bit hearing that phrase. It's common knowledge that Cam Newton has relative inexperience under center and is not familiar with pro-style offenses. Now, we may be able to add "inexperience with complicated play-calling" to his list of phopas.

This is the complicated play-calling that Newton will be facing come September (hopefully). I hope that he will be able to pick it up quickly because I honestly hope he does well. Cam Newton is a one-of-a-kind athlete, and I hope he can evolve in to a one-of-a-kind quarterback.

GAUNTLET THROWN DOWN!

Right now, it seems like the SNO Tap Family is like the Jersey Shore house.  We have one side that is Sam and Ronnie while the other side is the rest of the cast.  As the Sitch attempted to the day after the fight, I will try to bring us back together.  Only kidding.  I love the cattiness that is being displayed right now and hopefully it goes until it becomes like a WWE match where it's loser goes home match, where one has to quit. Anyways, I don't know why you guys keep squabbling when you can just put a poll question about who is better Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Voting goes a week, the loser owns the winner the shot of their choice at the bar of their choice.

Tom Brady voters here...                   VS.       Peyton Manning  voters here.    

This is why I am awesome.

-Charlie.

Tom Brady is the Most Overrated Quarterback in NFL History (Continued)

Well, Eric, Charlie, and Pat............I'm not the only person who feels that Tom Brady is overrated.

Feel free to leave your ill-conceived, ring-biased, Manning-bashing, emotion-driven responses below. I welcome it.

My Thoughts on the Weekend that Was.....

It started off so great. Sitting in a box suite, enjoying the Heat's overtime win in Milwaukee, I felt that it was a sign of good things to come. Granted the Big 3 shot a combined total of just under 35%.

The Seattle Seahawks defeated the defending champion Saints. Awesome. This weekend will be great. Now hopefully the NFL will take off all those Tracy Porter Saints fans commercials which suddenly gives me an urge to slap a small baby. Nobody predicted the rout that would ensue on Saturday afternoon, but I think the one telling statistic I heard before the playoff game was the New Orleans Saints have never won a road playoff game. Ah well.....



On to the tragedy that was the demise of the Indianapolis Colts. Let me begin with stating that Jason Whitlock of Fox Sports may be the biggest African-American homer of all-time. If you want to laugh whilest reading an absurd piece from somebody who is supposed to be an unbiased professional sports writer please feel free. Michael Vick, the dog-killing, middle-finger-pointing, gambling-ring-backing, EX-CONVICT!, is more mature and grown up than Peyton Manning. Good Lord.

Now to the game. The Jets simply outplayed the Colts at every position except quarterback. Their offensive scheme of setting up the run with the pass was pure brilliance mixed with absurdity. The Colts' maligned defense had no answer for the Jets in the second half, and the ignorance of Special Teams by the Colts once again rears its ugly head in the form of a 44 yard kick off return with under two minutes to go. I give all the credit in the world to Rex Ryan. He rushed with four the entire game, sat back with 8 in the defensive backfield and forced Manning to check to a run. The lack of any run game killed the Colts in the regular season, and its 2 for 6 on third and 1 will serve as the most important key statistic when I look back on the day that I wish to forget.

Peyton Manning is no 9-10 in the playoffs. He has 1 super bowl title and better statistical playoff numbers than his nemesis, Tom Brady, except for record. My argument has been made perfectly clear in previous posts. The Colts lack of coaching prowess, special teams blunders, and no running game or defense of the running game are the sole reasons why they lost this game. Once again, Manning is under scrutiny for losing against a team that, besides his position, is extremely better. It's unfortunate, but hey, c'est la vie.

I did not watch the Chiefs Ravens game because I couldn't figure out who would want to.

All of the people across the USA. I love my Green Bay Packers. Let's first put it out there. The Philadelphia Eagles were not the better team. The Packers exploited their lack of depth in the defensive secondary, and their lack of a significant pass rush. Aaron Rodgers has a 121.83 quarterback passer rating in two playoff games. I would use my Peyton Manning argument in defense of Rodgers as well. It certainly was not his fault for the loss in Arizona or the close game in Philadelphia. His greatness will be something to behold in future years. To be fair, I did say he would prove to be a better quarterback all-time than Brett Favre, and I stand by that prediction.

The Packers over 100 yard rushing performance is a little over-hyped however. James Starks had a great game on Sunday; however, there were consistent 7 man fronts with sometimes 3 safeties back deep. Do not expect this to occur in Atlanta. The Falcons are an experienced, fast, and strong defense. Rodgers and the defense will need to try and win this one again. I think they will pull off the slight upset.

I was torn between a good weekend bad weekend situation with the Colts losing, and the Packers winning. The clincher for a good weekend came with Lebron's first forty point performance of the season and a consecutive overtime win for the Miami Heat. Uh oh, Charlie. I think I'm getting ready to order my six pack of Spotted Cow.

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Bye, Bye

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Bye week. Next to "injury report", those two words are perhaps the most important for fantasy owners to pay attention to during the season. A fantastic team can be crippled by not paying attention to a bye week, and if you are not able to react quickly or well enough your QB or #1 RB's bye week can lead to a loss to an inferior fantasy squad. Most players are very careful about observing their RBs bye weeks when drafting, so that they never have more than one starter out at a time. What might be worse than having your two RBs out at the same time however, is having your QB and your top RB out the same week. If that happens, you can almost automatically chalk up a loss for the week.

To help avoid such a problem, I have compiled a list of the starting RBs that have a bye week the same week as each of the top 10 fantasy QBs:

Peyton Manning: Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Carson Palmer: Brian Westbrook (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Drew Brees: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis (White/Henry/Brown, Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Tom Brady: Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, Carnell Williams

Marc Bulger: Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs

Donovan McNabb: Rudi Johnson (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Matt Hasselbeck: Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James, Jerrious Norwood (Julius Jones/Marion Barber)

Vince Young: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister (Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Philip Rivers: Jamal Lewis (Brandon Jackson/Vernand Morency, DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams)

Jon Kitna: Wilie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry, Joseph Addai (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Two players from this list jump out as me as problems; Peyton Manning and Vince Young.

Peyton: If you have Peyton Manning this year, the likelihood is that you selected him somewhere in the frist round. If so, you are already a little bit behind when it comes to the RB derby, as every single one of your opponents is likely to have a top ten RB while you are left with the scraps. Now take a look at the RBs that have the same bye week as Peyton. Were you thinking about getting Willie Parker at the top of the second round? Forget it. Travis Henry? Same. Marshawn Lynch in the 3rd or 4th round? Nix that idea too. Although Peyton will certainly give you big numbers this year, just remember that his bye week is likely to give you a headache both then, and during your draft.

Vince: Nevermind the fact that I don't think Vince is a good choice as your starting QB. Lets say you do pick him. Take a gander at the bevy of top 20 RBs that are going to be out the same week as Vince; Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister. Youch. If you take Vince as your starter, make sure to pay special attention to the composition of your RB depth chart, or you could find yourself hurting come Week 4.


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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The QB Cliff

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Every fantasy football player knows that running back is the most important position to fill in fantasy football. Even if you are stacked at RB however, your team can be hamstrung if you don't have a viable starter at quarterback. So who do you need to take this year to ensure yourself a good shot at winning your league? More so than many other years, the answer is simple; take one of these six QBs:

Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Carson Palmer
Tom Brady
Marc Bulger
Donovan McNabb

In ESPN live drafts thus far all of these QBs have been off the board on average by the 40th pick. So it will cost you a 1st-4th round pick to do it, but you'll be set at the QB spot all season with one of these guys. If you pass on the members of the above group, the production drop-off is extremely steep after McNabb. In ESPN drafts the next QB drafted is Matt Hasselbeck, at an average pick of 55.2. The QB cliff is so steep in fact, that only four other QBs not in the top six (Hasselbeck, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo) even have an average pick in the first eight rounds of ESPN drafts. Yahoo drafts are seeing a similar pattern, with the only real difference being the inclusion of Jon Kitna in the first 80 picks on average.

As far as the production drop-off after the top six, just go take a look at last year's final fantasy stats for QBs. There is a clear divide after the top six, so grabbing one of them gives you a tremendous advantage at the QB spot over 4-6 of the other teams in your league, depending on size. Think of it this way; if you go RB-RB-WR with your first three picks, how can you justify taking a guy like Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss, Marion Barber III, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Ahman Green if Bulger and McNabb are still on the table? The talent drop-off between third and fourth tier RBs and second and third tier WRs is not nearly as steep as the drop-off at QB after the big six, so unless you have a dynamite sleeper pick you are better off going QB by round 4.

Now on to two QBs I think are overrated and two I think are great sleepers for this year;

You'll Be Dissapointed In:

Vince Young: I really can't remember a fantasy QB being as vastly overrated going into a season as Vince Young is this year. ESPN has him rated 8th among QBs, and Yahoo has him ranked 7th. Why do they have him ranked so high? If you delve deeper into the projections each site has for Young, the answer becomes glaringly obvious. ESPN has Young projected for 7 rushing TDs this season, and Yahoo has him down for 8.7. Unless Young hits those totals (good for 42-54 fantasy points) there is no way on earth you can project him as a top ten QB. He lost his workhorse RB in Travis Henry and the team just isn't very talented at WR, especially after losing Drew Bennett to the Rams this offseason. So just how crazy is it to assume Young will have 7-9 rushing TDs? Let me put it like this; Mike Vick has a career high of 8 rushing TDs, and only 21 total rushing TDs in his entire six year career. You're telling me I should just assume then that Vince Young is more of a socring threat on the ground than Vick? I'll pass on that one thank you.

Matt Leinart: Leinart is one of the middle of the pack QBs in fantasy this season, and if you want to take a flier on him as a backup he really isn't that bad of a choice. Penciling him in as your starter though, is a recipe for disaster. Most casual fans probably don't realize the impact that the head coaching change in Arizona from Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt will have on the Cardinals' offense this year. Green is known for running a high flying aerial offense, one that made both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald into fantasy stars in recent years. As for Whisenhunt? Um...have you watched a Steelers game in the last few years? In Whisenhunt's three seasons in charge of the Steelers' offense Pittsburgh ranked in the top ten in rushing yards every single year, and in the top ten in passing yards only once. Translation; More Edge, less Leinart now that Whisenhunt is at the helm.

You'll Be Suprised By:

Jon Kitna: Do you want to know how good Kitna is going to be this year? Just think about it logically for a second. Last year he threw for over 4200 yards, had 20+ TDs, and ranked 7th among all QBs in total fantasy points last season, even with Kevin Jones missing a third of the year. During the offseason the Lions added Tatum Bell, TJ Duckett, and most notably Calvin Johnson to the fold. Add the fact that Kitna is operating in a Mike Martz offense, and his numbers should be just as good if not better this year, right? You'd be wrong, at least according to ESPN's fantasy projections. ESPN has Kitna porjected to throw for 3 fewer TDs and 900 fewer yards than last year. That has to be a mistake on their part. The Lions' offense loses nothing, and in fact adds three new weapons, and they are projected to be markedly worse? Did someone forget to tell ESPN that Mike Martz loves throwing to RBs, so Tatum Bell coming into town is actually a good thing for the Lions' passing offense? All of that doesn't even take into account that the Lions also made huge improvements at both LG and RT by acquiring Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, respectively. What that all adds up to is this; Kitna could BLOW UP this season, to the point where he might even challenge for a spot in the big six listed above. If you can pick him up as your backup, or have the cajones to wait on him as your starter, you could come out looking like a genius.

Brett Favre: Go ahead and laugh. I am fully aware that Brett Favre has lost a ton of accuracy in recent years, and now throws interceptions by the bunch. That does not mean however, that he is no longer a viable starter in fantasy, especially in 12 team leagues. Just look at the numbers. Favre was 8th in total fantasy points among QBs last year and threw more passes than any QB in the league. Those numbers don't look like the will change much this season. The Packers will continue throwing like crazy now that Ahman Green is gone, and the WR corps is actually improved now that Greg Jennings has a year under his belt and #3 WR Robert Ferguson is returning after missing almost all of last year. Feel free to sleep on Favre, most people will. Some people however, might realize that getting a potential starting QB in the 13th round isn't such a bad deal.

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