Bye Bye Cavs Hello Heat

Wade & Bosh Heating Up Miami

Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh help the USA Redeem Team win gold in 2008 and now the new mission is to bring the NBA Title to Miami for the second time in franchise history. Chris Bosh announced he will be teaming up with Dwyane Wade in Miami next season. Picking up Bosh may be the only reason Wade is still in Miami because it seemed like he was going to head back home to Chicago. With Bosh in Miami it really doesn't make the Heat a shoe in for winning the title this year and really not even to come out the east. People seem to forget that Magic, Celtics, and Hawks are really returning the same team they had last year and if LeBron James goes back to the Cavs they will be in the mix as well. Now there has been talk that LeBron will be joining Wade and Bosh in Miami but we will have to wait and see if that happens later on tonight.

Now lets say James does sign with the Heat what will that mean for the Heat. The if that happens the Heat will only have 3 players under contract with almost no money to spend. That means they will have to go out and get some ok players to stick out on the floor with the "Big 3". I don't care is you have Wade, Bosh and James on the same team you need good players around them to win a title in the NBA. You don't want all 3 to have to play 40 to 43 minutes every night because come playoff time they will have no gas to get through the playoffs. Now I know your saying well they just need one or two to have a good game to win games during the season and that may be true but playoff time its a different story. Your playing the same team at least 4 times in a row and in today's NBA teams make adjustments, well the good teams make the good adjustments to find a way to shut the "Big 3" down. Then you throw in the egos, now Wade, Bosh and James don't come off as guys with egos and seem like player that just want to win championships but at some point the egos will come into play i mean that's just life. If the Heat can get James to sign the Heat will be the first or second best team in the East hands down but i just don't see them winning a NBA Championship next year because the "Big 3" will not have the supporting cast around them this year just because they wont have the money. Look at the 2007-2008 Celtics yeah they had Pierce, Allen and Garnett but what help them win the tile was the supporting cast Posey, Powe, House and Perkins and i don't see the heat picking up guys like that this season.
Now lets say the Heat don't sign LeBron and don't trade Beasley they will have about $12 to $14 million in cap room and with that they could sign 2 or 3 really good free agents and still have some money left over to fill in the roster. There are still a lot of free agents out there that are solid players and could help turn into a better balanced team then if LeBron were to sign. They could go out and get Brandan Haywood who's a solid cent that can get you 10 and 10 and play great defense as well. Also Mike Miller is out there as well the only problem with him is his shoulder, is it 100% because if it is that's a shooter and a player that can play good defense and has a high basketball IQ. Point guard they could just resign Rafer Alston who can still knock down the open shot and who can run a team still. They Heat have options out there for the team if they don't sign LeBron.

Make sure you tune at 9 on ESPN to see where LeBron James will end up next season Thanks for reading and please make sure to follow me on twitter and ill do the same back @Agent_EJohnson

Where Will Joe Johnson End Up?

With all the talk about LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh and Amar'e, it seems like people have forgot all about Joe Johnson. Believe it or not a lot of teams have a lot of interest in the All-Star guard. The Rockets and Knicks seemed to be the most interested other then the Hawks. Now it seems like the Hawks have got Johnson's full attention back with a $120 million 6 year deal on the table. Now you have to ask, is it about the money or about winning? I think its both with Joe Johnson. Right now we don't know who the Knicks will get other then Joe Johnson if they were to sign him. Plus I dont think Johnson is the kind of player that wants to be the player with the spotlight on just him. He needs to have at least one more really good player or a few good roll players around him to take some of that attention off him. So now u ask why resign with the Hawks, well because Hawks have guys like Josh Smith who is always on the other team's scouting report just because he's a athletic player and a great defensive player. Also you have Jamal Crawford who is known for coming in the game and scoring point in bunches.The Rockets also have a situation like the Hawks with Yao Ming but Yao is coming back off of injury so we don't know how he will perform this year and a young rising star in Aaron Brooks. Thats why i thought he would move on to the Rockets but then throw in the fact that there in the Western Conference which has been the toughest conference for the pass few seasons. The tide could be changing this year because of this summer. At the end of the day if Joe Johnson does sign this deal with the Hawks I think they need to go out and get a low post player because Al Horford isn't cutting it because his not a go to low post player yet in the NBA, he's getting there but they need one right now. So look for Joe Johnson to resign with the Hawks because of the money really and because right now thats the best team he can sign with and have a chance to win a championship. But if the Knicks can sign someone who will attract Johnson he could be in the city for next season. At this point the Rickets don't have a chance because the can't match the Hawks deal and dont have the money to bring anyone else in to upgrade their roster this year. The summer is still heating up and far from over.

Thanks for reading today and please follow me on twitter @Agent_EJohnson ......... Let's Talk Basketball People.

2010 Free Agency Update: Day 2

Well its finally here, the 2010 Free Agency period started on Thursday and already we have big news. The Boston Celtics started this free agency period not sure of the future of there superstar Paul Pierce because he stated he was going to opt out the last year of his contract really because he was sure what his head coach Doc Rivers was doing. Now that Doc said he will because next year the Celtics and Pierce have come to an agreement on a contract worth $61 million over the next 4 years. Now there is rumor that Rasheed Wallace will not retire and will even return to the Celtics next year for one more run are a title. Now the question is what will Ray Allen do? To me Doc returning will bring the whole team back even Allen and even if he has to take a pay cut. I think Allen will still explore the free agency market but at the end of the day will be a Boston Celtic at the start of the 2010-2011 season.

The winner of the first day of the 2010 Free Agency period was by far Rudy Gay who is going to be with the Memphis Grizzlies for the next 5 years and making over $80 million. Now i been reading a lot of people say why would the Grizzlies sign him for all that money, he hasn't done anything for them. Look Rudy is a young player that gets better every year and with talent like that the Grizzlies had to sign him back. If the Grizzlies let him go i promise you 3 years from now they would really be kicking themselves in the butt for not resigning him when they had the chance. Rudy Gay has the talent to be a superstar in this league and remember he's just 23 (will be 24 August 17th) and he's already this good. The money is well worth it they have a young team that will only get better. The Grizzlies did what they should have done offered him big money right up front and didn't wait to see what other offers he would be receiving this summer. That shows the Grizzlies want and need him on that team.

In other news the Phoenix Suns have come to an agreement with forward Hakim Warrick worth $18 million over the next 4 years. This is a good pick for the Suns because they need bigs that can rebound block shots and give them energy. Also because they don't know what Amar'e Stoudemir is going to do. The Suns did offer Amar'e a max deal for 5 years, 3 year guaranteed with the other 2 guaranteed based on his play, worth $96 million. To me I think its to late, Amar'e was looking for this deal before the free agency period even started and now they lose him because they waited to long to put this max deal on the table.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have hired Byron Scott for their coaching job. This is a good pick up even if LeBron James doesn't come back because Scott has showed how good of a coach he is and can be. Before the free agency period James said he wanted a coach that has been successful in the NBA, that's played in the NBA and has won championships as a player. At the time it was only two coaches out there like that and that was Avery Johnson and Byron Scott but Johnson looked like he was going to take the Nets job. It was a must for the Cavs to sign Scott because now they can say they have the coach LeBron wanted to play for. Right now I think the Cavs have the upper hand in getting LeBron just because of this move to hired Byron Scott.

Thanks for reading once again and please check back soon for other post. Also make sure to follow me on Twitter if your not already @Agent_EJohnson

As The Daunte Turns

Do you want to know the definition of a really bad day for an NFL QB?

It's when a team chooses to sign Tim Couch instead of you.

That is exactly what happened to Daunte Culpepper this weekend, as the Jaxsonville Jaguars decided to go with the NFL's version of Nikoloz Tskitishvili instead of Daunte. What is especially troublesome about this development for Daunte is that the Jaguars were assumed to be the perfect fit. It was a foregone conclusion that he was going there. So what went wrong? Evidently the deal fell apart because Daunte wanted a one year deal, and the Jaguars were looking for something in the 2-3 year range. In examining the situation, both sides were right to stick to their guns. The Jags want two things, 1.) security behind Byron Leftwich and 2.) someone to push Leftwich. A one year deal would not have really fulfilled either of those needs. For Culpepper, a one year deal will help him prove that he is truly healthy whil allowing him the ability to pursue a starting job next year, or at least get premium backup money. Any contract Culpepper will sign this summer will be at a large discount, so minimizing the length of this deal is to Culpepper's advantage.

Now that the Jaguars are out of the running, where does Daunte land this year?
If you trust John Clayton over at ESPN, Tampa Bay looks like a contender. If that were to actually happen, and the Bucs added Daunte to a stable that already hosts Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski, Luke McCown, and the rights to Jake Plummer, I would quit blogging and apply to become the new Bucs GM, since the current one is obviously an imbecile. All kidding aside, Clayton also throws out the Rams and Ravens as possible destinations for Daunte. I'm not sure where he came up with those two teams but hey, it's John Clayton, so I'll cut him some slack.

The momentum in signing Culpepper however, seems to lie with the Raiders. Culpepper is scheduled to work out for the Raiders in California today, and signing with Oakland just might be the perfect deal for him. JaMarcus Russell is still holding out, and with him unlikely the be ready to start at the beggining of the season the Raiders are looking at starting either Josh McCown or Andrew Walter at QB for the first 6-10 games of the season. Would an 80-90% healthy Culpepper be better than those two guys? Probably. Would starting for half a year be better for Culpepper's free agent chances next year than sitting behind Jeff Garcia in Tampa Bay? Certainly. Is there a better QB for Russell to learn from than Culpepper, the man he is a clone of? Not a chance.

Now...there is one other destination for Culpepper; Minnesota. Ok, maybe Daunte did not leave on the best of terms, but for goodness sakes, the Vikings are headed into the season with Tavaris Jackson as their starter with Brooks Bollinger as the backup. If the Vikings were a baby Zygi Wilf and Minnesota management would be charged with child neglect. Seriously, how can you not at least consider bringing in Daunte for a year? After seeing Jackson flee the pocket constantly and throw interceptions in the few games he played last season, does Brad Childress really believe that he couldn't use one more year of learning before being thrown into the fire? Maybe they are blind up in Minnesota, but Daunte looks like a good fit there to me. Wherever he lands, one thing can be for sure; he won't be looking to stay there long.

Paxson's New Problem

One NBA player being robbed at gunpoint is frightening.

Two NBA players being robbed at gunpoint within weeks of one another, in the same city, sure feels like something even worse.

In an incident eerily similar to what happened to Antoine Walker three weeks ago, the Knicks' Eddy Curry was robbed today at his Chicago area home;

"Deputy chief of police John Madden said three offenders restrained Curry, his family and an employee with duct tape inside the Burr Ridge home."

While the primary concern in both Walker and Curry's situations rests with their safety and well being, the timing and location of the two robberies should also concern someone else;

The Chicago Bulls and GM John Paxson.

Whether it is fair or not, these two robberies are going to give the perception around the NBA that players in Chicago are being targeted. Only time will tell whether or not the two robberies are linked in some way, but at present the robberies are going to make Chicago seem like a much less attractive destination for NBA players than it was at the beggining of July.

The timing is especially troubling given the fact that the Bulls were obviously aiming to make a big push next Summer in free agency. The Bulls were set to enter the 2008 offseason with more cap space than almost any NBA team. The 2008 free agent class should feature far more star power than this year, with the likes of Kevin Garnett, Baron Davis, Antawn Jamison, Shawn Marion, and Jermaine O'Neal likely being available. Now that Chicago seems a little less safe for NBA players than it did just a month ago, how will that change the thinking of a player like Garnett or O'Neal if they are offered similar money by both the Bulls and another team?

What Chicago may end up doing, and what they may have done regardless of the two robberies, is focus on signing their young core to lucrative extensions. It is almost certain that the Bulls will sign Luol Deng long term, but if the Bulls are unable to sign any big ticket free agents next Summer they would be much more likely to re-sign the likes of Ben Gordon and Chris Duhon. Only time will tell if the two recent robberies will force Chicago's hand in choosing whether to maintain their core or to go the free agent route.

Top 5 Free Agent Signings

Now that the dust has almost completely settled on what ended up being a rather lackluster free agency period, now is the time to do every blogger's favorite thing; declare winners and losers. While I'll put off a full free agency analysis until I get back home from my current trip, here is a look at the top five signings of the free agency period;

5. Jacque Vaughn
No, that is not a typo. The fact that Vaughn makes this list is an indictment of the ridiculous amount of fiscal irresponsibility that was exhibited during the free agency period. Between teams bidding against themselves, overvaluing players, and making just plain stupid deals, the Spurs showed why they have won four championships in nine years. They knew they needed a backup PG, they knew Vaughn fit into their system, and they paid very little in order to get him. (2 years, $2.5 million) In the current NBA landscape, with so many teams languishing in salary cap hell, moves such as getting a solid backup PG for near the league minimum can be much better than throwing a max contract at a so so talent. (See; Lewis, Rashard)

4. Darko Milicic
This is not to say that Darko is going to be some sort of star in Memphis; he likely won't be. The Grizzlies did make a good signing with Milicic on a number of levels. First, they filled a need. Everyone in the NBA knew that Memphis was looking to find a big man to compliment Pau Gasol, and the Grizzlies went hard after both Anderson Varejao and Andres Nocioni. They were able to get Milicic, who in spite of all of the criticism levied against him is actually turning into a pretty serviceable 7 footer. So the Grizzlies filled a need, added a young talent, and most importantly were able to do it without breaking the bank. The Darko deal was for three years and somewhere between $18-$21 million. When you realize that Darko was originally seeking about $9 million a season, this deal looks that much better.

3. Grant Hill
This was a signing that was great for both sides. For the Suns, they were able to add a veteran leader who also filled a need (are you that crazy about Boris Diaw or Raja Bell?) for a low price. (2 years, $3.8 million) For Hill, going to the Suns gives him a chance to play for a championship, play in an exciting system, and to play a significant number of minutes at an age(34) where many teams would have wanted to put him out to pasture. The deal was a steal for the Suns, and adding Hill may well put them over the hump and into the Finals next season. Now, if they could just get rid of Marcus Banks...

2. Jamaal Magloire
When I first saw news of this signing my initial reaction was "Oooph". For those of you unfamiliar with what "Oooph" is, it's the sound that you make when you see something particularly nasty. A six foot blond walking down the street? "Oooph". Sean Taylor knocking a wide receiver head over heels? "Oooph". Coming home and seeing a big fat steak already sitting on the table? "Oooph". The prospect of the Nets starting Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, Nenad Kristic, and Jamaal Magloire next season? "Oooph". That does not even take into account the fact that signing Magloire for one year and only $4 million is both cheap and low risk, and that signing Magloire also prevented them from throwing away money on Mikki Moore. This signing was ridiculously good.

1. Gerald Wallace
Did you see the contract that Rashard Lewis got from the Magic? Now imagine a player that is five years younger, plays the same position as Lewis, has an offensive game that is fast developing to match Lewis', is one of the top five defenders in the NBA, and is just generally better than Lewis in every single way other than perimeter shooting. Now imagine that you just signed him for half as much as the Magic signed Lewis. That is the kind of dream that the Charlotte Bobcats have been having ever since they signed Gerald Wallace to a six year, $57 million deal. Wallace is a star in the making, and if you have watched him at all in the past few years you know that he has been making quantum leaps in his game every single season. The Bobcats easily made the best signing of the year getting Wallace for the money they did.

The Darko Domino

The Memphis Grizzlies have announced the signing of Darko Milicic to a 3 year, $21 million contract. (According to Ric Bucher) The ramifications of this deal however, go far beyond the Grizzlies lineup. The signing of Darko also has a profound impact on the futures of both Anderson Varejao and Mikki Moore.

Varejao: It has been well documented in the past few weeks that the Grizzlies were seeking an athletic big man to pair with Pau Gasol, and their pursuit of free agents such as Anderson Varejao and Andres Nocioni arguably drove up the asking price for those players. With the signing of Darko however, the Grizzlies will no longer be out there to sign Varejao to an offer sheet. What this likely means is that Varejao will end up staying in Cleveland at a much lower price than he would have received if the Grizzlies had signed him to an offer sheet. Many people had speculated that if the Grizzlies signed Varejao to a contract too far above the mid level exception that the luxury tax wary Cavs would be faced with an extremely difficult choice; either let Varejao leave and focus on signing Sasha Pavlovic, or match the offer sheet and risk going over the luxury tax. The signing of Darko eliminates that difficult quandry alltogether.

Moore: The other player that is affected by the signing of Darko is New Jersey's free agent center Mikki Moore. According to reports Moore has rejected a 3 year, $10 million offer from the Nets and was set to meet this week with Golden State, Chicago, and Memphis. Now that Memphis is out of the running Moore could find it extremely difficult to find much more than the $10 million the Nets have on the table. And if he isn't able to find it, New Jersey may no longer be an option as the Nets have already made contact with Jamaal Magloire. Moore now finds himself in an extremely difficult spot, as he is 31 years old and has had very little playing time or success before this past season. If he has burned bridges with the Nets could quickly realize that not many teams are willing to pay big for an aging and unproven player.

Wallace Stays...Wither Morrison?

Gerald Wallace has re-signed with the Charlotte Bobcats to the tune of 6 years and $57 million, ending speculation that he would end up in Dallas or elsewhere. Thea deal also includes a total of $12 million in bonuses, so the total value of the contract could be pushed up to $69 million. If you read the site reguarly, you are probably already aware that I like Gerald Wallace quite a bit. Why? Wallace has done things the right way on the way to his big payday. He plays hard on D, rebounds, and operates within the team scheme on offense. Think of him as Shawn Marion Lite. I guarantee you that Wallace will be a much better player six years from now than Rashard Lewis, even though Lewis will be making more than twice as much money.

Now that the signing is official, on to two big questions that concern the Bobcats:

Is This A Playoff Team?: Last season the Bobcats finished 33-49, seven games out of the playoffs. That finish continued the general upswing of the team, as they have improved their record in every season of the franchise's existence. Now consider this; the Bobcats posted that record while only getting partial seasons out of Sean May (35 games), Walter Herrman (48 games), and Primoz Brezec (58 games). So will healthy campaigns by those three, coupled with the acquisition of Jason Richardson to start at the 2, lead to the Bobcats having a .500 record next year? On paper it seems to be almost a certainty. Consider; how many teams in the East can boast a frontcourt that rolls six deep (Okafor, Brezec, Wallace, Herrman, May, Morrison) like the Bobcats? Not many. The trouble of course for the Bobcats has been that their backcourt in recent years has been underwhelming in comparison to their young and talented forwards. The Jason Richardson trade along with the re-signing of Matt Carroll will go a long way in righting this imbalance. The only glaring weakness on the roster is at PG, where Ray Felton has looked promising but will no longer have Brevin Knight around to help carry the load. So will Richardson and a healthy stable of forwards put the Bobcats in the playoffs? The answer is only maybe at this juncture, only because a .500 record may not be an automatic ticket into the Eastern playoffs next year. The two bottom playoff teams (Orlando and Washington) should be improved next season, and the Knicks also appear to be poised to make a postseason push with the acquisition of Zach Randolph. That being said, the Bobcats will certainly be in the mix for the final playoff spots.


What About Adam Morrison?: This is the question that I find truly interesting with the Bobcats. Just last season they invested the #3 overall pick in Morrison, with the general assumption that he would ascend to the lead role on the team when Wallace left this Summer. A funny thing happened on the way to Morrison being the next Larry Bird however, as he completely laid an egg last season (366th in PER) and the Bobcats re-signed Wallace. And Carroll. And they traded for Jason Richardson. And they drafted another 1st Round SF in Jared Dudley. If you judge the Bobcats thought process solely based on their transactions this offseason the conclusion is obvious; they are moving on from Morrison after just one season. Remember, Michael Jordan has soured quickly on top draft picks before. (See: Brown, Kwame) Now Morrison will have two $10 million a year swing players in front of him, a backup SG signed to a 6 year deal, and a brand new first rounder to battle him for the backup minutes at SF. The only real question left with Morrison is whether or not the Bobcats will even bother to pick up the final three years on his contract after next season.

Start Your Engines

Today is the first day that NBA free agents can officially sign new contracts. So other than a few deals we already know about being made official, what other storylines are there to follow in the next few days? Here is a look at the current status of some of the top remaining free agents:


Gerald Wallace: Most speculation has Wallace re-signing with Charlotte for a 6 year deal worth in the neighborhood of $60 million. There are persistent rumblings however, that Dallas still has a strong interest in Wallace. The Mavericks have been mentioned in the Wallace discussion ever since free agency began, and for the life of me I can't understand why they are interested. Don't they already have a young and athletic small forward in Josh Howard? Why would Dallas want to bring in another $10 million a year guy just to back him up? Even beyond that however, for Dallas to sign Wallace it would require a sign and trade deal with Charlotte. All signs seem to point to Wallace taking the easy route and taking the long term deal from the Bobcats. The second order effects of that signing would be very interesting to observe in Charlotte, mainly in regards to the future of Adam Morrison. The team just recently brought in Jason Richardson via a trade (signed for the next four years), re-signed SG Matt Carrol to a six year contract, drafted SF Jared Dudley with their 1st Round pick, and are close to re-signing Wallace. What kind of message do those signings send to Morrison after a lackluster rookie campaign? It would seem to me that management might be saying none too subtly that they are ready to cut their losses with Morrison.


Where Does Mo Go?: After Chancey Billups and the Pistons agreed to terms on contract extension Mo Williams suddenly found himself as the best point guard available in free agency. As luck would have it though, three of his potential destinations have dried up; the Lakers took Javaris Crittenton in the draft and then signed Derek Fisher, the Grizzlies took Mike Conley, and the Hawks selected Acie Law. Those moves essentially leave Williams with only two options, one being re-signing with the Bucks to the tune of about $8 million a year, or taking less money to go to the Miami Heat. What his choice essentially boils down to is whether or not he wants to compete for a championship now, which would require taking less money, or if he is willing to stay with Milwaukee through their rebuilding process.


Rashard Lewis is Stinkin Rich: It has just been reported that the Magic and Sonics have agreed upon a sign and trade deal for Rashard Lewis, with Orlando sending Seattle a second round pick. This move will allow Orlando to sign Lewis to a six year deal worth $127.2 million. Lewis will make $25.6 million in the final year of the contract. Read that last sentence again, and then try and tell me this deal is not going to be a disaster for the Magic, especially since it means that they won't have enough money to re-sign Darko Milicic which happens to complicate another situation...


Memphis Wants Your Big Man: One of the more interesting and and least talked about subplots in free agency is the Grizzlies mission to acquire a big man to pair with Pau Gasol. Going into the draft the Grizzlies had two glaring holes in their roster at point guard and power forward, and they wisely chose to address the point guard issue in the draft considering the previously discussed lack of quality point guards on the free agent market. The free agent crop at power forward however, is much more promising. Initially the Grizzlies were rumored to be after Chicago's Andres Nocioni, but the Bulls and Nocioni have since agreed to an extension. That leaves Anderson Varejao and now Darko as the Grizzlies' two main targets. Varejao is a restricted free agent and the Cavs have been saying all along that they will match any offer. So assuming that Memphis does not vastly overpay Varejao in order to dissauade Cleveland (which is in luxury tax territory) from matching the deal, that leaves Memphis with Darko.

Buehrle Must REALLY Love Chicago

Mark Buehrle and his agent had said all along that they would not back down from their demand for a no-trade clause from the Chicago White Sox. In the end however, Buehrle agreed to sign a 4 year, $56 million deal with the Sox which does not contain a full no-trade clause. Instead, the deal has a no-trade clause in the first year alone, and a trade in the second or third season would move his salary from $14 million to $15 million as well as add a fifth season, also at $15 million.

Buehrle's deal raises two questions. First, how much more could he have signed for as a free agent? And secondly, will this contract actually protect him from being traded? To answer the first question let's take a look at Buehrle's performance over the past six years. Buehrle has been remarkably consistent, as is witnessed by the following statistics;

Mark Buehrle
12 Win Seasons: 6
16+ Win Seasons: 4
30+ Start Seasons: 6
200+ IP Seasons: 6

Not only has Buehrle pitched at a very high level, he has added value due to the fact that he is left handed and only 28 years old. To compare, here are the stats in those same categories from the top four pitchers from last year's free agent crop along with their contracts and ages at the end of last season:

Ted Lilly 30, 4 years, $40 million ($10 million per year)
12 Win Seasons: 3
16+ Win Seasons: 0
30+ Start Seasons: 3
200+ IP Seasons: 0


Gil Meche 28, 5 years, $55 million ($11 million per year)
12 Win Seasons: 1
16+ Win Seasons: 0
30+ Start Seasons: 2
200+ IP Seasons: 0


Jason Schmidt 33, 3 years, $47 million ($15.7 million a year)
12 Win Seasons: 5
16+ Win Seasons: 2
30+ Start Seasons: 2
200+ IP Seasons: 3


Barry Zito 28, 7 years, $126 million ($18 million per year)
12 Win Seasons: 5
16+ Win Seasons: 3
30+ Start Seasons: 6
200+ IP Seasons: 6


As you can see, pitchers with poorer results and far less consistencty over the past few years signed deals that were comparable or greater to the one Buehrle just signed. In fact, of the four above pitchers Zito is the most comparable as he was the same age as Buehrle, is also lefthanded, and had almost equal success and consistenct to Buehrle. So if he was able to get $18 million a year, how does Buehrle's contract in light of that fact? If Buehrle had hit the free agent market he would have likely commanded $16-$17 million a year. Proven and consistent lefties are a valuable commodity in baseball, and they are paid accordingly. By signing with the Sox for $14 million a year, Buehrle is likely giving up $8-$12 million over the life of the contract.

From Buehrle's perspective however, giving up that money is worth it if it means being able to stay in Chicago. So will the contract keep him in Chicago? To put it simply; no way on earth. If the White Sox don't improve next season Buehrle will be shipped out, no question about it. Even with the trade kicker, what big market team wouldn't want a 29 year old stud lefty for 4 years and $60 million? At that rate Buehrle would still be at or even slightly below the market value for a left handed pitcher of his age and ability. Buehrle lost big time in these contract negotations, and the money he gave up won't keep him in Chicago any longer than the first year of the contract.

The G(m) Spot: No Love For DeShawn

At this point in his career DeShawn Stevenson is known for two things; that he was drafted out of high school, and that he turned down a 3 year, $9 million contract from the Magic last season and instead played for the minumum with the Wizards. What you may not know about Stevenson is that he has started all 82 games in each of the past two seasons and shot 46% from the floor. In fact, his stat lines from the past two seasons have been nearly identical:

2005-2006: 11.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.0 AST, 10.93 PER
2006-2007: 11.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.7 AST, 12.92 PER

Not stellar stats of course, but good enough on a team like Washington that doesn't really need too much more scoring with Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Atawn Jamison. As such, the Wizards have offered Stevenson a 4 year, $12 million deal to stay in town. So is this a good deal for DeShawn? To answer that question lets play a little game. Here are the stats for another 26 year old, free agent shooting guard. Let's call him "Player X" for now:

2006-2007: 10.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.2 AST, 13.87 PER

Pretty close to Stevenson's numbers right? So you would think he would get about the same money, right?

Nope.

Player X is Jason Kapono, and he just agreed to a 4 year, $24 million contract with the Raptors earlier this week, an average of $6 million per season. So is Kapono worth TWICE as much as Stevenson, even though they are the same exact age, have nearly the same stats from last season, and Stevenson in fact has a more consistent track record in the league? The answer is of course no. There is no way that Kapono is worth twice as much as Stevenson. The real question then, is whether it is Kapono that is being overpaid or Stevenson that is being low-balled. To answer that question, lets take a look at yet another 26 year old, free agent shooting guard's stats from last season. Let's call him "Player Y" for now:

2006-2007: 12.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.3 AST, 14.63 PER

That player is Matt Carroll, who recently agreed to a 6 year, $27 million contract with the Bobcats, which comes out to about $4.5 million a year. So two other players with nearly identical stats to Stevenson, with less starting experience in the league, who are the same exact age as Stevenson, are getting $6 million and $4.5 million a year respectively while Stevenson is being offered $3 million a year from the Wizards. It seems to me that the Wiz probably need to move that deal up to at least the value of Carroll's contract for it not to be an insult to Stevenson.

Thursday Free Agency Bullets

- The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Bulls have offered Andres Nocioni a five year deal worth $38 million. The Grizzlies appear to be their main competition for the forward.

- The Arizona Republic reports that the Suns are expecting Grant Hill to agree to terms with the team today.

- The Denver Post reports that Steve Blake is seeking full mid-level exception money, an amount the Nuggets might accept.

- The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Gerry McNamara is attempting to make the 76ers Summer League team. I have to admit, I'm kind of rooting for the guy.

The G(m) Spot: Magic Sign Lewis

The Deal: Barring a sign and trade, the deal will be a max contract worth roughly $75 million over five years.

For the Magic: To put it bluntly, this is huge for the Magic. Last season Hedo Turkoglu was their starting SF, and to replace him in the starting lineup with an All-Star player makes the Magic an extremely dangerous team in the East. Lewis' perimeter touch and offensive arsenal will take a lot of pressure off of Dwight Howard down on the block, spreading the floor and giving Howard more room to operate. You thought Howard was nasty last season? Just wait and see what kind of havoc he is able to wreak now that teams won't be able to constantly double team him every time he touches the ball. The other shoe that is going to drop in this deal though is that the Magic will have to renounce the rights to Darko Milicic in order for the signing to work under the cap. Losing Darko leaves the Magic precariously thin in the frontcourt behind Howard, but that is obviously a risk they are willing to take in order to get Lewis on board. The Magic might be able to keep Milicic if they are able to convince Seattle to work a sign and trade for Lewis, creating enough space under the cap to retain the rights to Darko.

For the Sonics: I just can't believe that the Sonics thought there was any way that they were going to lose Lewis when they traded Ray Allen. Maybe I am wrong, but the Allen trade seemed to me like the Sonics were sending a message to Lewis that they wanted him to be the star to mentor Kevin Durant. Not to be too terribly harsh but the Sonics better pray to the Lord that Kevin Durant truly is the next great swing player sooner rather than later, otherwise they could be looking at a rough next two or three years. Looking at the Sonics roster, here is what they have; three centers that can be described as projects at best (Robert Swift, Saer Sene, and Johan Petro), three unproven point guards (Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson, and Delonte West), a couple of swing projects (Damien Wilkins and Mikael Gelabale), two decent forwards (Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox), Wally Szczerbiak, and two stud rookies who both happen to play the same position (Durant and Jeff Green). So to recap, no real point guard, no real center, and their four best players play either SF or PF. Eww.

A Lesson Easily Forgotten

In the weeks leading up to the NBA Draft debates raged about which top prospect the Portland Trailblazers should've selected with the first overall pick. Oden or Durant. Center or swingman. Scoring or defense. It was a debate that was philosophical at its core. What is more important in basketball? A dominant scorer or a dominant defender? Does the age old axiom, "Defense wins championships" really hold true? Should the NBA game resemble the Suns or the Spurs? In the end the Blazers seemed to settle the issue, opting for the stalwart post player Oden over the scoring dynamo Durant.

It seems however, that in spite of the widely lauded choice by the Blazers to take Oden the NBA as a whole is not neccessarily backing that choice's logic with their actions in free agency. How so you might ask? Just listen. Who is the most talked about free agent this year? Rashard Lewis. Lewis is a fantastic offensive talent. Simply put, there are very few basketball players on this earth that are 6-10 and can shoot the ball the way that he does. Whenever Lewis steps foot on the court he is an instant matchup problem for the opposing defense. The trade-off in Lewis' case however, is that his defensive game, or lack thereof, also creates an instant mismatch when the Sonics are on defense. Lewis' defense is so bad that after the 2005-2006 season John Hollinger described it thusly:

"The Sonics were the worst defensive team of all time, and Lewis was a big reason why. He has never been the most interested defender, but like a lot of teammates he suffered a noticeable drop in intensity last season. While Seattle had myriad problems and Lewis was only a part of them, it's simply shocking to look at his defensive numbers from a year ago.

As bad as the Sonics were defensively, they were worse with Lewis on the floor. A LOT worse. Seattle gave up 6.6 points per 100 possessions more when Lewis played -- and keep in mind, his replacement most times was Vladimir Radmanovic, who won't be appearing on an All-Defense team any time soon. Additionally, Lewis' man was doing most of the damage -- he surrendered an 18.6 opponent PER from the small forward spot, and a staggering 23.5 at power forward."

This isn't to say that Rashard Lewis is a bad player. That just wouldn't be true. What is shocking about the Lewis situation is not that he is a desireable free agent; it is that he is the most desireable free agent of this entire class, even though there is another free agent at Lewis' very own position who is younger, cheaper, and an elite defender. Where is the love for Gerald Wallace? If defense wins championships, don't you want one of the three players in NBA history to average at least 2 blocks and 2 steals in an NBA season on your team? (The other two were David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon by the way) Alas, despite his defensive prowess Wallace is likely to either re-sign with Charlotte or go to the runner up in the Rashard Lewis sweepstakes. I will guarantee you this though; the team that gets Wallace will be much better off than the team that gets Lewis. I mean for goodness sakes, Wallace is only 24 years old. An elite defender in his prime is on the market and all everyone can talk about is a 6-10 jump shooter that is too slow to defend on the perimeter and too weak to defend on the block? Obviously people did not read the memo about Oden, or see the Spurs win the title on the strength of a suffocating defense.

It isn't just isolated to the Lewis/Wallace situation either. Take a look out West in the Arizona dessert. The Suns are pressed up against the lottery tax, and are trying to deal Shawn Marion to get cap relief. That's right, Shawn Marion, the man who is arguably the best defensive player in basketball. The Matrix is a defensive freak, and like Wallace also has a pretty good offensive game to go with his lockdown D. So why on earth would the Suns be looking to get rid of him? To guard Amare Stoudemire of course. Amare, who only scored 3 more points per game than Marion even though Marion scored the vast majority of his points in transition and on broken plays. Amare is sexy though, Marion is not.

You know who else is being ignored in free agency right now? A former All-Star center, Jamaal Magloire. Right now rumor has it that he is being looked at for mid level exception money by a few teams. They should pull the trigger. And they should play him. Again, Magloire does not play a sexy game. He is a big man that gets position down low on offense and defense and is hard to move. He is still one of the best defensive rebounders in the game. Yet nobody seems to be making a serious play at him. Last year his own team didn't even give him a serious look, as Magloire found himself behind both Joel Pryzbilla and LaMarcus Aldridge in Portland. Do you want to know what happened when Magloire did get some serious PT though? In the 12 games last year where he played at least 30 minutes last year Magloire averaged 11.4 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks. Yet, you don't hear a peep about this center that could be a double double machine somewhere if he got the playing time. Because he isn't sexy. He doesn't run the floor or shoot three pointers. He just plays a tough defensive game and puts the ball in the hoop effectively on offense. It really is too bad that a league that seemed so close to understanding what winning basketball is all about with the Oden pick is ignoring it so quickly. Some teams do get it though, and those teams will be the ones that sign up Gerald Wallace, trade for Shawn Marion, and snap up Magloire for the mid level exception. And those teams will be winners.

The G(m) Spot: Lakers Sign Walton

The Deal: Luke Walton agrees to a 6 year, $30 million contract with the Lakers.

For the Lakers: Although some may have questioned Mitch Kupchak's moves in the past, this deal was a complete no brainer for both sides. Walton was third on the Lakers last year in both points and assists, and his skill set is a perfect fit for Phil Jackson's triangle offense. The Lakers could not afford to lose his passing ability in the offense, especially considering the complete mess the team has at the point. For Walton this deal also makes a lot of sense, since it was unlikely that his talents would have been worth the full mid level exception from another team. Walton is now settled in as the Lakers' starter at SF for the foreseeable future, an important bit of stability for the Lakers in the midst of their tumultuous offseason.

The G(m) Spot: Raptors Sign Kapono

Free Agency = Love. Seriously, the free agent season in the NBA is one of my favorite times every year. So as the signings begin to roll in we'll examine them here in the G(m) Spot.


The Deal: Jason Kapono (formerly of the Heat) agrees to a 4 year, $24 million contract with the Toronto Raptors.

For the Raptors: The signing of Kapono could have number of ripple effects on the Raptors roster. Kapono provides the elite perimeter shooter that the Raptors have been missing, and his presence on the court will allow Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh a lot more space to operate down low. This signing along with the recent trade made by the Raptors for Carlos Delfino likely spells the end of Morris Peterson's tenure in Toronto. With Kapono and Delfino now on board joining Joey Graham, Jorge Garbajosa, and Anthony Parker at the swing spots there just don't seem to be enough minutes left to go around to justify Peterson staying with the team.

For the Heat: Although any team will miss a player that just finished a season where he shot 51% from behind the arc, the Heat's pick of Daequan Cook in the draft will certainly soften the blow. Cook can shoot, there is no questioning that fact. The most interesting effect that the loss of Kapono could have on the Heat's roster however, is that now Dorell Wright will have an opportunity to show if he was really worth a 1st round pick in 2004. Wright played about 20 MPG last season but should see that number go up to about 25-30 now that Kapono is headed out of town.

For Comparison: Lyle Overbay of the Toronto Blue Jays also signed a 4 year, $24 million contract in January.

Heat Check: MLB Free Agent Class of 2007

The baseball season is about a third of the way done, and the general shape of the pennant races, All Star races, and MVP races is beggining to come together. What is also becoming more clear, is whether or not teams spent their dollars wisely in free agency. So here is a look at the top ten free agents from this past year's class, and how they are panning out so far this season. (Note: Players are ranked by the total dollar value of their contract, not per season average.)

10. Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers: 5 years, $44 million
Stats: .269 BA, .297 OBP, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 19/25 SB
Scoop: Pierre has not turned out to be at all what the Dodgers were expecting when they signed the center fielder to a long term deal this past winter. Although he is second in the NL with 19 SB, Pierre, a career .301 hitter with a .349 OBP that has never had a season with an OBP below .326, Pierre has seen is batting measurables fall off markedly. At present he is almost a liabilty at the top of the order, having drawn only 9 walks in 61 games. Pierre is also in the midst of a 6 for 36 slump, and has not drawn a walk in the past 14 games. He also has two errors and no assists in the field.
Score: C -

9. Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years, $47 million
Stats: 1-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1/4 QS
Scoop: Schmidt looked bad in his first three starts before going on the DL for seven weeks, amassing a 7.36 ERA in his first three starts. Schmidt returned from his right shoulder injury on Tuesday and threw 6 shutout innings and surrendered only one hit against the Padres. The question remains whether or not the 34 year old pitcher will be able to remain healthy through the life of his contract.
Score: INC.

8. Gary Matthews Jr., LA Angels: 5 years, $50 million
Stats: .290 BA, .349 OBP, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 9/12 SB
Scoop: The Angels signed Matthews hoping that he would perform closer to his .313, 19 HR season for the Rangers last season than to his career averages of .265 and 15 HRs. What they have gotten from Matthews thus far is something inbetween, although part of that may be because the Angels have shifted Matthews around the lineup this season. Matthews has split time almost evenly between the leadoff and cleanup positions, and is actually batting 13 points higher in the leadoff spot. Now that Matthews seems to have found a home in the cleanup spot expect his RBI numbers to see a spike, but Matthews does not look like he is going to get near his .313 average of last season. The Angels might regret this signing though, especially considering that next season's free agency crop includes such CFs as Andruw Jones, Ichiro, and Torii Hunter.
Score: B -

7. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years, $52 million
Stats: 7-4, 4.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7/12 QS
Scoop: Dice-K's deal has a bit of an asterisks attached, that of course being the $50 million dollar negotiating fee the Sox had to pay before they even signed him. As such, Dice-K has to be examined with a great deal more scrutiny than his contract would normally dictate. In examining his performance this season, and setting aside the media hyperbole, it is apparent that Dice-K has not lived up to his enormous reputation thus far as a staff ace. Rather, he has performed at the level of what he actually is right now: a 3rd starter on a good team. If pushed into the second spot in the rotation next season, Dice-K might see his W-L record drop drastically. The Red Sox certainly did not put out $102 million for this kind of performance.
Score: C

6. Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals: 5 years, $55 million
Stats: 3-6, 3.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10/14 QS
Scoop: Meche's deal was perhaps the most scrutinized of the entire offseason, but the Kansas City front office saw a top of the rotation pitcher about to enter his prime in the person of the 28 year old Meche. Despite a few tough starts this season, it appears that the Royals may have been on to something. Although his W-L record may not indicate it, Meche has been a fairly good starter this season, ranking in the top ten in the AL in ERA. If Meche maintains an ERA around 3.00 and throws quality starts three quarters of the time, the wins will come for both him and the Royals.
Score: B

5. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: 5 years, $70 million
Stats: .235 BA, .348 OBP, 4 HR, 24 RBI
Scoop: The most frightening thing about the above stats for Red Sox fans is that they are after Drew exploded for a 2 HR, 7 RBI performance last night. Drew has also been erratic in right field, commiting 3 errors in 48 games. The Sox certainly cannot afford to keep Drew in the fifth spot in their batting order for the next five years if he keeps flirting more with the Mendoza line than .300, and it looks as if last season's .283, 20 HR, 100 RBI performance may have been a mirage.
Score: D -

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs: 5 years, $75 million
Stats: .299 BA, .352 OBP, 13 HR, 39 RBI
Scoop: The Cubs were not about to let their 28 year old star 3rd baseman get away from them, and thus far it looks like that was a good choice. Ramirez is on pace for 38 HR and 115 RBI and has brought consistency to the Cub's cleanup spot. In addition to his exploits at the plate, Ramirez is playing the best defense of his career at the hot corner. This signing looks like a winner.
Score: A

3. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros: 6 years, $100 million
Stats: .308 BA, .354 OBP, 11 HR, 52 RBI
Scoop: Lee has been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Astros team this season, and leads the NL in RBIs. The 30 year old Lee appears to be coming into his prime, and the Astros look to have a very good cleanup hitter signed up for the foreseeable future. Lee has also looked good out in the field, already amassing 6 assists out of left. $100 million deals are always risky, but it looks as if the Astros have come out big on this one.
Score: A

2. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants: 7 years, $126 million
Stats: 6-6, 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8/14 QS
Scoop: Zito had an extremely rough start to the season, amassing a 3-5 record and 5.14 ERA in his first ten starts. It seems as if he may have turned a corner however, as he has gone 3-0 in his last three starts with a .45 ERA before getting shelled tonight by the A's. So which Zito is going to stick around? The ace, or the the guy that went out the first ten starts this season? Only time will tell with that question but it appears that Zito, much like Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder before him, may never regain the form from his glory days in Oakland. Sadly for Giants fans, that was what the San Fran was paying for.
Score: C -

1. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: 8 years, $136 million
Stats: .326 BA, .376 OBP, 10 HR, 21 RBI, 8/10 SB
Scoop: Soriano may well be the toughest top free agent to analyze. On one hand, he came to Chicago with the reputation of being a 40/40 guy. Thus far, he is on pace to have 29 HR and 24 SB. On the other hand, Soriano, a career .282 hitter, is enjoying the best batting average of his career by far. The Cubs were foolish if they thought Soriano would be an RBI machine out of the leadoff spot, so don't let his RBI total fool you. Soriano has indeed been knocking runners in when they are there, hitting .333 with runners in scoring position this season. And miraculously, Soriano has yet to commit an error this season after having at least 11 every season before now. The truly puzzling part of Soriano's performance this season has been why Lou Pinella has not been sending him more often on the base paths. Has Soriano lost a step? Perhaps, but in my book I think Pinella is just gun shy. Although Soriano may not have been worth quite as much as the Cubs spent on him, if he keeps hitting above .300 he will turn out to be a great investment.
Score: B +