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Saturday, June 9, 2007

Heat Check: MLB Free Agent Class of 2007

The baseball season is about a third of the way done, and the general shape of the pennant races, All Star races, and MVP races is beggining to come together. What is also becoming more clear, is whether or not teams spent their dollars wisely in free agency. So here is a look at the top ten free agents from this past year's class, and how they are panning out so far this season. (Note: Players are ranked by the total dollar value of their contract, not per season average.)

10. Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers: 5 years, $44 million
Stats:
.269 BA, .297 OBP, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 19/25 SB
Scoop: Pierre has not turned out to be at all what the Dodgers were expecting when they signed the center fielder to a long term deal this past winter. Although he is second in the NL with 19 SB, Pierre, a career .301 hitter with a .349 OBP that has never had a season with an OBP below .326, Pierre has seen is batting measurables fall off markedly. At present he is almost a liabilty at the top of the order, having drawn only 9 walks in 61 games. Pierre is also in the midst of a 6 for 36 slump, and has not drawn a walk in the past 14 games. He also has two errors and no assists in the field.
Score: C -

9. Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years, $47 million
Stats:
1-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1/4 QS
Scoop: Schmidt looked bad in his first three starts before going on the DL for seven weeks, amassing a 7.36 ERA in his first three starts. Schmidt returned from his right shoulder injury on Tuesday and threw 6 shutout innings and surrendered only one hit against the Padres. The question remains whether or not the 34 year old pitcher will be able to remain healthy through the life of his contract.
Score: INC.

8. Gary Matthews Jr., LA Angels: 5 years, $50 million
Stats:
.290 BA, .349 OBP, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 9/12 SB
Scoop: The Angels signed Matthews hoping that he would perform closer to his .313, 19 HR season for the Rangers last season than to his career averages of .265 and 15 HRs. What they have gotten from Matthews thus far is something inbetween, although part of that may be because the Angels have shifted Matthews around the lineup this season. Matthews has split time almost evenly between the leadoff and cleanup positions, and is actually batting 13 points higher in the leadoff spot. Now that Matthews seems to have found a home in the cleanup spot expect his RBI numbers to see a spike, but Matthews does not look like he is going to get near his .313 average of last season. The Angels might regret this signing though, especially considering that next season's free agency crop includes such CFs as Andruw Jones, Ichiro, and Torii Hunter.
Score: B -

7. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years, $52 million
Stats:
7-4, 4.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7/12 QS
Scoop: Dice-K's deal has a bit of an asterisks attached, that of course being the $50 million dollar negotiating fee the Sox had to pay before they even signed him. As such, Dice-K has to be examined with a great deal more scrutiny than his contract would normally dictate. In examining his performance this season, and setting aside the media hyperbole, it is apparent that Dice-K has not lived up to his enormous reputation thus far as a staff ace. Rather, he has performed at the level of what he actually is right now: a 3rd starter on a good team. If pushed into the second spot in the rotation next season, Dice-K might see his W-L record drop drastically. The Red Sox certainly did not put out $102 million for this kind of performance.
Score: C

6. Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals: 5 years, $55 million
Stats:
3-6, 3.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10/14 QS
Scoop: Meche's deal was perhaps the most scrutinized of the entire offseason, but the Kansas City front office saw a top of the rotation pitcher about to enter his prime in the person of the 28 year old Meche. Despite a few tough starts this season, it appears that the Royals may have been on to something. Although his W-L record may not indicate it, Meche has been a fairly good starter this season, ranking in the top ten in the AL in ERA. If Meche maintains an ERA around 3.00 and throws quality starts three quarters of the time, the wins will come for both him and the Royals.
Score: B

5. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: 5 years, $70 million
Stats:
.235 BA, .348 OBP, 4 HR, 24 RBI
Scoop: The most frightening thing about the above stats for Red Sox fans is that they are after Drew exploded for a 2 HR, 7 RBI performance last night. Drew has also been erratic in right field, commiting 3 errors in 48 games. The Sox certainly cannot afford to keep Drew in the fifth spot in their batting order for the next five years if he keeps flirting more with the Mendoza line than .300, and it looks as if last season's .283, 20 HR, 100 RBI performance may have been a mirage.
Score: D -

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs: 5 years, $75 million
Stats:
.299 BA, .352 OBP, 13 HR, 39 RBI
Scoop: The Cubs were not about to let their 28 year old star 3rd baseman get away from them, and thus far it looks like that was a good choice. Ramirez is on pace for 38 HR and 115 RBI and has brought consistency to the Cub's cleanup spot. In addition to his exploits at the plate, Ramirez is playing the best defense of his career at the hot corner. This signing looks like a winner.
Score: A

3. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros: 6 years, $100 million
Stats:
.308 BA, .354 OBP, 11 HR, 52 RBI
Scoop: Lee has been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Astros team this season, and leads the NL in RBIs. The 30 year old Lee appears to be coming into his prime, and the Astros look to have a very good cleanup hitter signed up for the foreseeable future. Lee has also looked good out in the field, already amassing 6 assists out of left. $100 million deals are always risky, but it looks as if the Astros have come out big on this one.
Score: A

2. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants: 7 years, $126 million
Stats:
6-6, 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8/14 QS
Scoop: Zito had an extremely rough start to the season, amassing a 3-5 record and 5.14 ERA in his first ten starts. It seems as if he may have turned a corner however, as he has gone 3-0 in his last three starts with a .45 ERA before getting shelled tonight by the A's. So which Zito is going to stick around? The ace, or the the guy that went out the first ten starts this season? Only time will tell with that question but it appears that Zito, much like Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder before him, may never regain the form from his glory days in Oakland. Sadly for Giants fans, that was what the San Fran was paying for.
Score: C -

1. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: 8 years, $136 million
Stats:
.326 BA, .376 OBP, 10 HR, 21 RBI, 8/10 SB
Scoop: Soriano may well be the toughest top free agent to analyze. On one hand, he came to Chicago with the reputation of being a 40/40 guy. Thus far, he is on pace to have 29 HR and 24 SB. On the other hand, Soriano, a career .282 hitter, is enjoying the best batting average of his career by far. The Cubs were foolish if they thought Soriano would be an RBI machine out of the leadoff spot, so don't let his RBI total fool you. Soriano has indeed been knocking runners in when they are there, hitting .333 with runners in scoring position this season. And miraculously, Soriano has yet to commit an error this season after having at least 11 every season before now. The truly puzzling part of Soriano's performance this season has been why Lou Pinella has not been sending him more often on the base paths. Has Soriano lost a step? Perhaps, but in my book I think Pinella is just gun shy. Although Soriano may not have been worth quite as much as the Cubs spent on him, if he keeps hitting above .300 he will turn out to be a great investment.
Score: B +