Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe

On Saturday night against the Mariners Dice-K continued his recent run of success, matching his season high with 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 win. Matsuzaka pitched 7 innings while only giving up 2 earned runs. The game was also his third consecutive quality start following three rather lackluster outings at the beggining of July.

On a little more interesting note...Saturday's game also continued a streak of nine consecutive Dice-K starts in which the Red Sox have alternated wins and losses. That means Red Sox fans can pretty much go ahead and put an L on the calendar right now for August 10th, when the Red Sox face Erik Bedard and the Orioles. Regardless of recent history though, the matchup of Dice-K and Bedard promises to be quite the duel of young stud pitchers.

Now on to the fun part boys and girls. Who is Dice-K looking like this week? The answer to that question resides all the way across the country from Boston, in sunny Los Angeles. This week Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .62
QS%: .65
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.26
Salary: $6,333,333

Lowe 2006:
W%: .67
QS%: .59
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $9,500,000


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Dice-K Is Looking Like...Aaron Harang

Going into Sunday night's game against the Devil Rays, the worst team in baseball, most people would have guessed that Dice-K would pitch well and get a win. Well, that would be half right. Dice-K pitched 6.1 innings and only gave up two earned runs, but the Red Sox bats fell silent against Scott Kazmir and the Devil Rays in a 5-2 loss. This was Dice-K's second straight quality start after falling off the wagon a bit with three consecutive non-quality starts in the middle of July. As the Red Sox get ready for the stretch run, with the Yankees creeping ever closer, Boston has to be hoping that they get "Good Dice-K" down the stretch. If "Bad Dice-K" happens to come back, the Red Sox could find themselves in a tough spot come September.

As far as comparisons go, this week was tougher than others. This week Dice-K is looking like Aaron Harang. Harang matches up with Dice-K almost perfectly in three out of the four areas I look at each week, but he is way off in terms of quality start percentage. I decided to investigate as to why, and it turns out that the culprit behind Harang's .49 QS% was 7 starts over six innings in which Harang gave up exactly 4 ER. (You can only give up 3 ER to qualify as a quality start) So even though the number looks bad, Harang is a lot closer to Dice-K that it would seem.


Dice-K 2007:
W%: .6
QS%: .64
ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Harang 2006:
W%: .59
QS%: .49
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $2,350,000

Dice-K Is Looking Like...Erik Bedard

If there is one thing that can be said about Dice-K this season, it is that he has been consistently inconsistent. In June Dice-K was one of the top three pitchers in the AL, going 5/5 on quality starts and posting a 1.59 ERA for the month. After Dice-K threw eight shutout innings in his first July start, it looked as if he was finally over the hump and ready to be the staff ace that the Sox had envisioned all along. Then Dice-K went out and laid three straight eggs, going 1-2 with no quality starts over a three game stretch.

So of course, just when it seemed like Dice-K was ready to roll over and play dead, he goes out last night and out-duels CC Sabathia, tossing seven shutout innings to beat the Indians 1-0. Go figure. After his latest performance Dice-K's most comparable pitcher from last year is actually quite good news for both Dice-K and the Sox. The most comparable pitcher is very similar in age to Dice-K and is also experiencing a great deal of sucess this season. So this week, Dice-K is looking like...Erik Bedard.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .63
QS%: .62
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Bedard 2006:
W%: .58
QS%: .61
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.35
Salary: $1,400,000

Dice-K is looking like...Curt Schilling

On Saturday night Daisuke Matsuzaka once again reminded the nation of the fact that while he is indeed a tremendous talent, he is still struggling with consistency in his rookie campaign. Dice-K got the win against the Blue Jays, mainly on the strength of a five run sixth inning by the Red Sox in their 9-4 win against the Blue Jays. Dice-K gave up all four Blue Jays' runs over the course of six innings, including three in the sixth. The games was Dice-K's second straight lackluster performance after a June run during which he was arguably one of the top five pitchers in all of baseball.

After his latest outing Dice-K's season statistics are again very similar to the pitcher that we compared him to in May. So for this week we have a returning guest, as Dice-K is looking like....Curt Schilling.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .65
QS%: .63
ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Schilling 2006:
W%: .68
QS%: .61
ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.22
Salary: $13,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Tom Glavine

All good things must come to an end, and such was the fate tonight of Daisake Matsuzaka's string of six consecutive quality starts. Dice-K was shelled by the Tigers, giving up six run and ten hits in five innings, including three home runs. While Dice-K and the Red Sox certainly would have hoped for a better start going into the All-Star break, Dice-K's brilliant month of June does buy him a great deal of slack. Another interesting note on Dice-K's performance this season is that his unpredictabilty as a pitcher is not only a rumor, but can be backed up by statistics. To explain, here are Dice-K's out statistics this season; 123 SO, 122 GB, 127 FB. In an age of strikeout specialists and ground ball pitchers it is very interesting that Dice-K has shown the ability to mix up his approach throughout the season. Now, on to the main course. This week, after a bit of a step back, Dice-K is looking like...Tom Glavine.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .63
QS%: .66
WHIP: 1.24
ERA: 3.84
Salary: $6,333,333

Tom Glavine 2006:
W%: .69
QS%: .68
WHIP: 1.33
ERA: 3.82
Salary: $10,500,000

Dice-K is looking like...Mike Mussina

Dice-K is proving all of the doubters wrong at this point. The Red Sox young star has shaken off some early season jitters to become one of the best pitchers in the majors in the past month. Dice-K's hot streak continued Tuesday night as he threw 8 shutout innings against the D-Rays while striking out nine batters. Over his past four starts Dice-K has an ERA of .62, giving up only two runs in 29 innings. If Matsuzaka had started his recent hot streak about two starts earlier he would have likely been in the All-Star game, and by the end of the season it could look rather strange if Dice-K is competing for a Cy Young without having been selected for the Mid-Summer Classic. As you might be able to tell by that intro, Dice-K's comparison this week has become substantially better than a month ago when he was looking like a Vicente Padilla clone. So who is it now? To answer that question, Dice-K is looking like...Mike Mussina.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .67
QS%: .71
WHIP: 1.19
ERA: 3.53
Salary: $6,333,333

Mike Mussina 2006:
W%: .68
QS%: .72
WHIP: 1.11
ERA: 3.51
Salary: $19,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Kenny Rogers

In case you hadn't noticed, Daisuke Matsuzaka has absolutely been on fire in the month of June. Going into tonight's game against the Mariners Dice-K had posted a 1.73 ERA in four consecutive quality starts this month, despite only having a 2-2 record over that period. Tonight's game was no different as Dice-K had his best performance of the season, striking out eight and only surrendering one earned run in 8 innings. Dice-K did not get a decision in tonight's game as the Mariner's went on to win 2-1 in extra innings. Dice-K has undergone a dramatic transformation in the month of June, going from an erratic and inconsistent starter in the season's first two months. In fact, during this month Dice-K has arguably been the third best starter in the entire AL. (Justin Verlander and Joe Blanton being the only pitchers ahead of him) Dice-K's strong June performance has greatly improved his measurables on the season, and the comparisons here on "Dice-K is looking like..." have likewise improved. So after tonight's performance Dice-K is looking like...Kenny Rogers.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .69
WHIP: 1.24
ERA: 3.80
Salary: $6,333,333

Kenny Rogers 2006:
W%: .68
QS%: .58
WHIP: 1.26
ERA: 3.84
Salary: $8,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Jeremy Bonderman Again

Dice-K had his fourth straight quality start last night, outdueling Greg Maddux to lead the Sox to a 2-1 victory over the Padres. Dice-K only gave up one run over six innings and lowered his June ERA to 1.73. Matsuzaka's performance showcased two of the problems he has been dealing with all season, his control and his propensity to give up big innings whn he gets into trouble situations. It seems that Dice-K has begun to improve his pitching in pressure situations, as shown by his ability to get out of a bases loaded jam in the 1st inning while only giving up one run. A month ago Dice-K would have given up three or four runs in that situation, but he seems to have grown more confident pitching in those scenarios. The flip side of that however, is what got Dice-K into that situation in the first place; inconsistent control. He walked five batters last night and if he is ever going to make the transition to being a true ace, that number will surely have to come down. As for the comparison, for the second week in a row Dice-K is looking like...Jeremy Bonderman.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .66
WHIP: 1.30
ERA: 4.01
Salary: $6,333,333

Jeremy Bonderman 2006:
W%: .63
QS%: .56
WHIP: 1.30
ERA: 4.08
Salary: $2,300,000

(Photo Credit: AP / Lenny Ignelzi)

Dice-K is looking like...Jeremy Bonderman

Everyone’s favorite roller coaster, Daisuke Matsuzaka, is climbing to the top of a pretty big hill. Boston’s 1-0 win over San Francisco on Friday was Matsuzaka’s 3rd consecutive quality start. Dice-K went 7 innings, didn’t give up a run, and struck out 8. Congrats to Dice-K for the well-earned win, but if the world’s most expensive roller coaster keeps plugging along, he’s in for one heck of a nasty drop. So, we predict that Dice-K will get shelled in his next two starts (at least).

Now that Dice-K’s quality start percentage has continued to climb, it has been a struggle to find a pitcher with a similar QS% and W%, along with an abysmal ERA. Nevertheless, without further ado, we present…Dice-K is looking like Jeremy Bonderman!

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .62
QS%: .64
WHIP: 1.27
ERA: 4.18
Salary: $6,333,333 (In case anyone cares, that's 782,483,292 yen as of June 15)

Jeremy Bonderman 2006:
W%: .63
QS%: .56
WHIP: 1.30
ERA: 4.08
Salary: $2,300,000

Lucky Roll For Dice-K?

Monday may have seemed like just a normal off day for Daisake Matsuzaka in the minds of Red Sox fans, but it may well have been a turning point for Boston's prized import. Dice-K has struggled throughout the season, but was able to meet Monday with a familiar face: his former Seibu Lions manager Osamu Higashio. In addition to being Dice-K's manager for three seasons Higashio was also a pitcher, and according to the Boston Herald he evidently had some helpful advice for Dice-K on improving his performance. As for what that advice was...well...

“The point he advised me (yesterday) is difficult to explain to you guys, but his suggestion is so great,” Matsuzaka told Japanese reporters. “If I change something Higashio pointed to (yesterday), hopefully I can fix it and get better automatically.”

Well, that was informative...as for any tangible advice, Dice-K did divulge this sterling tid bit:

Matsuzaka is licking his fingers more off the mound between pitches, an indication that the baseball in the United States is slicker than in Japan.

Now Red Sox fans can sleep soundly, safe in the knowledge that Dice-K is going to lick his fingers less, and do some other sort of difficult and secret thing in order to improve his pitching performance. Here's hoping that it works, if only so Dice-K does not continue looking like Vicente Padilla.

Dice-K is looking like...Vicente Padilla, Part III

Sunday night Dice-K matched up against Randy Johnson, and while Matsuzaka did pitch well, he and the Red Sox fell 5-1 against the Diamondbacks. Dice-K pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 ER while striking out nine batters and walking four. The four walks are somewhat of a cause for concern for the Red Sox, but Dice-K was able to pitch out of trouble for the most part Sunday night.

After his fourth tough loss of the season (a tough loss being defined as a loss in a game where the pitcher made a quality start), Dice-K's winning percentage and quality start percentage are almost exactly equal, meaning that his 7-5 record, despite his recent bad luck, is indeed reflective of the quality of his overall pitching performance this season. In a shocking development, after his latest performance Dice-K is looking like, for the third time, Vicente Padilla. So I suppose that unless Matsuzaka makes some large change for better or worse, it seems that he is continually evening out to the Padilla level of performance. So is that what the Red Sox paid $102 million for? Hmm...

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .58
QS%: .62
WHIP: 1.31
ERA: 4.52
Salary:$6,333,333

Padilla 2006:
W%: .60
QS%: .61
WHIP: 1.38
ERA: 4.50
Salary:$4,400,000

Heat Check: MLB Free Agent Class of 2007

The baseball season is about a third of the way done, and the general shape of the pennant races, All Star races, and MVP races is beggining to come together. What is also becoming more clear, is whether or not teams spent their dollars wisely in free agency. So here is a look at the top ten free agents from this past year's class, and how they are panning out so far this season. (Note: Players are ranked by the total dollar value of their contract, not per season average.)

10. Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers: 5 years, $44 million
Stats: .269 BA, .297 OBP, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 19/25 SB
Scoop: Pierre has not turned out to be at all what the Dodgers were expecting when they signed the center fielder to a long term deal this past winter. Although he is second in the NL with 19 SB, Pierre, a career .301 hitter with a .349 OBP that has never had a season with an OBP below .326, Pierre has seen is batting measurables fall off markedly. At present he is almost a liabilty at the top of the order, having drawn only 9 walks in 61 games. Pierre is also in the midst of a 6 for 36 slump, and has not drawn a walk in the past 14 games. He also has two errors and no assists in the field.
Score: C -

9. Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years, $47 million
Stats: 1-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1/4 QS
Scoop: Schmidt looked bad in his first three starts before going on the DL for seven weeks, amassing a 7.36 ERA in his first three starts. Schmidt returned from his right shoulder injury on Tuesday and threw 6 shutout innings and surrendered only one hit against the Padres. The question remains whether or not the 34 year old pitcher will be able to remain healthy through the life of his contract.
Score: INC.

8. Gary Matthews Jr., LA Angels: 5 years, $50 million
Stats: .290 BA, .349 OBP, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 9/12 SB
Scoop: The Angels signed Matthews hoping that he would perform closer to his .313, 19 HR season for the Rangers last season than to his career averages of .265 and 15 HRs. What they have gotten from Matthews thus far is something inbetween, although part of that may be because the Angels have shifted Matthews around the lineup this season. Matthews has split time almost evenly between the leadoff and cleanup positions, and is actually batting 13 points higher in the leadoff spot. Now that Matthews seems to have found a home in the cleanup spot expect his RBI numbers to see a spike, but Matthews does not look like he is going to get near his .313 average of last season. The Angels might regret this signing though, especially considering that next season's free agency crop includes such CFs as Andruw Jones, Ichiro, and Torii Hunter.
Score: B -

7. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years, $52 million
Stats: 7-4, 4.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7/12 QS
Scoop: Dice-K's deal has a bit of an asterisks attached, that of course being the $50 million dollar negotiating fee the Sox had to pay before they even signed him. As such, Dice-K has to be examined with a great deal more scrutiny than his contract would normally dictate. In examining his performance this season, and setting aside the media hyperbole, it is apparent that Dice-K has not lived up to his enormous reputation thus far as a staff ace. Rather, he has performed at the level of what he actually is right now: a 3rd starter on a good team. If pushed into the second spot in the rotation next season, Dice-K might see his W-L record drop drastically. The Red Sox certainly did not put out $102 million for this kind of performance.
Score: C

6. Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals: 5 years, $55 million
Stats: 3-6, 3.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10/14 QS
Scoop: Meche's deal was perhaps the most scrutinized of the entire offseason, but the Kansas City front office saw a top of the rotation pitcher about to enter his prime in the person of the 28 year old Meche. Despite a few tough starts this season, it appears that the Royals may have been on to something. Although his W-L record may not indicate it, Meche has been a fairly good starter this season, ranking in the top ten in the AL in ERA. If Meche maintains an ERA around 3.00 and throws quality starts three quarters of the time, the wins will come for both him and the Royals.
Score: B

5. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: 5 years, $70 million
Stats: .235 BA, .348 OBP, 4 HR, 24 RBI
Scoop: The most frightening thing about the above stats for Red Sox fans is that they are after Drew exploded for a 2 HR, 7 RBI performance last night. Drew has also been erratic in right field, commiting 3 errors in 48 games. The Sox certainly cannot afford to keep Drew in the fifth spot in their batting order for the next five years if he keeps flirting more with the Mendoza line than .300, and it looks as if last season's .283, 20 HR, 100 RBI performance may have been a mirage.
Score: D -

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs: 5 years, $75 million
Stats: .299 BA, .352 OBP, 13 HR, 39 RBI
Scoop: The Cubs were not about to let their 28 year old star 3rd baseman get away from them, and thus far it looks like that was a good choice. Ramirez is on pace for 38 HR and 115 RBI and has brought consistency to the Cub's cleanup spot. In addition to his exploits at the plate, Ramirez is playing the best defense of his career at the hot corner. This signing looks like a winner.
Score: A

3. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros: 6 years, $100 million
Stats: .308 BA, .354 OBP, 11 HR, 52 RBI
Scoop: Lee has been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Astros team this season, and leads the NL in RBIs. The 30 year old Lee appears to be coming into his prime, and the Astros look to have a very good cleanup hitter signed up for the foreseeable future. Lee has also looked good out in the field, already amassing 6 assists out of left. $100 million deals are always risky, but it looks as if the Astros have come out big on this one.
Score: A

2. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants: 7 years, $126 million
Stats: 6-6, 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8/14 QS
Scoop: Zito had an extremely rough start to the season, amassing a 3-5 record and 5.14 ERA in his first ten starts. It seems as if he may have turned a corner however, as he has gone 3-0 in his last three starts with a .45 ERA before getting shelled tonight by the A's. So which Zito is going to stick around? The ace, or the the guy that went out the first ten starts this season? Only time will tell with that question but it appears that Zito, much like Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder before him, may never regain the form from his glory days in Oakland. Sadly for Giants fans, that was what the San Fran was paying for.
Score: C -

1. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: 8 years, $136 million
Stats: .326 BA, .376 OBP, 10 HR, 21 RBI, 8/10 SB
Scoop: Soriano may well be the toughest top free agent to analyze. On one hand, he came to Chicago with the reputation of being a 40/40 guy. Thus far, he is on pace to have 29 HR and 24 SB. On the other hand, Soriano, a career .282 hitter, is enjoying the best batting average of his career by far. The Cubs were foolish if they thought Soriano would be an RBI machine out of the leadoff spot, so don't let his RBI total fool you. Soriano has indeed been knocking runners in when they are there, hitting .333 with runners in scoring position this season. And miraculously, Soriano has yet to commit an error this season after having at least 11 every season before now. The truly puzzling part of Soriano's performance this season has been why Lou Pinella has not been sending him more often on the base paths. Has Soriano lost a step? Perhaps, but in my book I think Pinella is just gun shy. Although Soriano may not have been worth quite as much as the Cubs spent on him, if he keeps hitting above .300 he will turn out to be a great investment.
Score: B +

Dice-K is looking like...Freddy Garcia

Baseball has a way of evening itself out, and that was exactly what happened last night to Dice-K and the Red Sox. Matsuzaka had been able to get wins earlier in the season in three games where he did not pitch well, and by all rights was due a tough loss. Dice-K pitched well in last night's 2-0 defeat against the Athletics, going 7 innings while only giving up two earned runs and striking out eight. His control continued to be solid, and even with two walks last night he now has surrendered only 5 free passes in his last five games.

The tough loss suffered by Matsuzaka last night has been very beneficial for the comparisons that we draw here after each of Dice-K's outings, as his win percentage is now much more in line with his quality start percentage. As such, and in looking back at the last few comparisons, Dice-K's relative standing in the game is becoming much more clear. Much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans however, that standing is not one of a staff ace that can step in after Curt Schilling retires. Rather, Dice-K is looking more and more like a top end 3rd starter. Don't believe me? Take a look at Dice-K's ranks among Major League starters in QS%, ERA, and WHIP:

QS%: 56th
ERA: 69th
WHIP: 55th

Given the fact that there are 30 Major League teams, on average every team has a pitcher better than Dice-K, and most have two. So is a top end 3rd starter worth (including the bidding price Boston paid) $17.3 million a year? Of course not. So, as the Dice-K picture continues to get clearer and clearer, Dice-K is looking like...Freddy Garcia.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .58
WHIP: 1.31
ERA: 4.63
Salary:$6,333,333

Garcia 2006:
W%: .65
QS%: .55
WHIP: 1.28
ERA: 4.54
Salary:$9,000,000