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Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Dice-K is looking like...Freddy Garcia


Baseball has a way of evening itself out, and that was exactly what happened last night to Dice-K and the Red Sox. Matsuzaka had been able to get wins earlier in the season in three games where he did not pitch well, and by all rights was due a tough loss. Dice-K pitched well in last night's 2-0 defeat against the Athletics, going 7 innings while only giving up two earned runs and striking out eight. His control continued to be solid, and even with two walks last night he now has surrendered only 5 free passes in his last five games.

The tough loss suffered by Matsuzaka last night has been very beneficial for the comparisons that we draw here after each of Dice-K's outings, as his win percentage is now much more in line with his quality start percentage. As such, and in looking back at the last few comparisons, Dice-K's relative standing in the game is becoming much more clear. Much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans however, that standing is not one of a staff ace that can step in after Curt Schilling retires. Rather, Dice-K is looking more and more like a top end 3rd starter. Don't believe me? Take a look at Dice-K's ranks among Major League starters in QS%, ERA, and WHIP:

QS%: 56th
ERA: 69th
WHIP: 55th

Given the fact that there are 30 Major League teams, on average every team has a pitcher better than Dice-K, and most have two. So is a top end 3rd starter worth (including the bidding price Boston paid) $17.3 million a year? Of course not. So, as the Dice-K picture continues to get clearer and clearer, Dice-K is looking like...Freddy Garcia.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .58
WHIP: 1.31
ERA: 4.63
Salary:$6,333,333

Garcia 2006:
W%: .65
QS%: .55
WHIP: 1.28
ERA: 4.54
Salary:$9,000,000


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