Holliday Will Not Be MVP

We all know that the AL MVP race is down to Magglio and A-Rod. What about the NL race? Some people (Including USA Today, The Denver Post, and the guys at Epic Carnival) have been talking up Matt Holliday recently. Why so much love for Holliday? For one thing, there is no other consensus favorite. Injuries and slumps have take a number of perrenial NL stars out of the running for the MVP award. Let's take a look at Holliday's MVP resume (NL rank in parenthesis):

Holliday:
BA: .338 (2nd)
HR: 21 (14th)
RBI: 95 (3rd)
Team: 62-58 (3rd in NL West)


Holliday's numbers are impressive. He is both hitting for average and driving in runs at an elite rate. There are a number of factors however, that are going to keep him from ever coming close to the NL MVP:

The Coor's Bias: Anyone that has been a baseball fan in the past decade knows that Coor's Field turns good hitters into great hitters. It's a proven fact, and whether it is fair to Holliday or not his numbers this year are going to be viewed by many as being Coor's inflated. The obvious question then, is whether or not his numbers are indeed inflated. Here is a look at Holliday's home and away splits this season:

Home: .378, 15 HR, 55 RBI
Away: .298, 6 HR, 38 RBI

As you can see, there is a huge gap between Holliday's home and away numbers. The Coor's bias has set in among MVP voters ever since Larry Walker won the 1997 award. Don't believe me? Take a look at Todd Helton's line in 2000, when the Rockies went 82-80 overall and 34-47 on the road:

Helton: .372 (1st), 42 HR (7th), 147 RBI (1st)

Helton came within 8 homers of the triple crown that year for a team with a winning record. Where did he finish in the MVP balloting? 5th. If a near triple crown year for a winning team couldn't win Helton an MVP, Holliday has no chance at all.

Playoff Bias: As it stands right now Holliday and the Rockies stand 6 games out of the NL West lead and 3 games out of the NL Wild Card. If you took a straw poll, most people would say that the Rockies will be sitting out the playoffs this year. So how does that impact Holliday's MVP chances? In the past decade 15 of the 20 MVPs have come from playoff teams. The five players to accomplish that feat were Ryan Howard, Larry Walker, A-Rod, and Barry Bonds twice. That is pretty elite company, company with which Holliday does not seem to fit.

Homer Bias: The one downside of Holliday's numbers is his somewhat lackluster home run total (for an MVP candidate). Holliday currently stands 14th in the NL in HR and is on pace to hit 29 for the season. In the past 15 years only 3 of the 30 MVPs have had fewer than 30 homers; Ichiro, Barry Larkin, and Dennis Eckersly. They say that chicks dig the long ball, but it might be true that MVP voters dig it even more.

Now take a look at all three of those biases together. If Holliday were to win the MVP as a Rockie, on a non playoff team, while hitting fewer than 30 HR it would not only be suprising it would be historically significant. (The last player to be named MVP from a non-playoff team while hitting under 30 HR was Robin Yount in 1989) I'd say the smart money right now on NL MVP would be on Ryan Howard, Jake Peavy, and whoever makes the playoffs between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.

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The Greatest

Now that Barry Bonds has broken Hank Aaron's home run record the discourse among sportswriters has turned to the question of who is the greatest home run hitter of all time. Is it Bonds because he technically holds the record? Or is it Aaron, due to Bonds' performance coming in the steroid era while Aaron's occured in a pitcher's era? Or is it someone else?

The answer may suprise you...because there is no concrete answer. Determining who is "the greatest" home run hitter of all time depends upon what aspect of home run hitting you view as most important. Is it the raw numbers? Is it consistency? Is it efficiency? Is it regularity? Is it a comparison to the competition? The answer to each of those five questions is different, which is precisely why there is no singular home run king; there are five.

The All Time Champ: Barry Bonds
No matter how certain anyone is that Barry took steroids / the clear / the cream / HGH the fact remains that he has never tested positive for any performance enhancers, and he will never admit to it. Therefore there is never going to be an asterisk affixed to Bonds' record, just like there will be no asterisk affixed to any of the other records set during the steroid era. Though some people would like you to believe that Bonds is the only villain in all of this, there are more players than you can count that have been using HGH, steroids, and greenies over the past two decades. Likewise, throughout baseball history players have scuffed balls, spit on balls, stolen signs, corked bats, and used too much pine tar. Point being, if you took away every single stat ever accumulated by a baseball player accussed of cheating, you wouldn't be left with much of a record book. I'm not saying that it is right; I'm just saying that is the way it has always been, and until there is a complete and itemized overhaul of every single baseball record people need to lay off the asterisk talk. So if the raw numbers are what is most important to you, than Barry's body of work clearly makes him the greatest home run hitter of all time because like it or not his record will be staring back at you everytime you open the record book. Without an asterisk.

The King of Consistency: Hank Aaron
You think Bonds' raw numbers are inflated? OK. Lets say that the most important aspect of home run hitting to you is consistency. If so, Hank Aaron is your pick as the greatest home run hitter of all time. Aaron not only holds the record for most twenty-homer seasons (20), he also did them all in a row. During the peak years of Aaron's career he hit between 24-47 home runs every single year, and his career average per 162 games was 37 home runs. Aaron was a devastatingly efficient home run machine. He never had a 50 homer season, but he never had a single digit one either. If that sounds like the kind of thing you value as great, then feel free to declare Aaron the greatest. There are plenty of people that would agree with you.

The Juggernaut: Babe Ruth
Although Ruth stands at #3 on the all time home run list his home run feats are perhaps far more legendary than either of the two men in front of him on that list. The stats are well known; Ruth held the all-time home run record for an astounding 53 years. He held the single season mark for 34 years. He lead his league in homers 12 times. In both 1927 and 1920 Ruth hit more home runs than any other AL team. These are feats that likely will never be matched for the rest of history. There is no disputing the fact that Ruth is the most singular home run talent of any given era. Is that what makes a man the greatest home ru hitter of all time? That is for you to decide.

The Deadliest: Mark McGwire
The above metrics still aren't tickling your fancy? How anout this rubric for deciding the greatest; at bats per home run. By that measure Mark McGwire is the greatest home run hitter of all time, and it isn't even close. Just take a look at the top five AB/HR guys of all time:

1. Mark McGwire 10.61
2. Babe Ruth 11.76
3. Barry Bonds 12.93
4. Jim Thome 13.64
5. Ralph Kiner 14.11

McGwire's dominance in this category is tremendous. Big Mac also has three of the top four single seasons in thi category, trailing only Barry Bonds' record setting 2001 season. What this means is that if you had to pick one man to hit a home run in any given at bat, history would say that McGwire would be your man. And it isn't even close.

The Efficiency Expert: Ted Williams
This might be the category you wouldn't think of right off the bat, and it is the one of the most effecient home run hitter in regards to at bats per strikeout. Why this category? The evil twin to every home run is the strikeout, and shouldn't an argument about the greatest hitter of all time also factor in which power hitter was best able to be Dr. Jekyll without turning into Mr. Hyde? In looking at this stat for the hitters in the 500 home run club, one man stands out from the pack; Ted Williams. Williams only struck out once every 10.87 ABs during his career. While that number isn't great for a normal hitter, it is phenomenal for a power hitter. In a way you can view this statistic as showing who was the best natural home run hitter, the player that didn't need to take chances and swing from his heels in order to hit the round-tripper. If that sounds like greatness to you, Teddy Ballgame is your greatest home run hitter.

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Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe

On Saturday night against the Mariners Dice-K continued his recent run of success, matching his season high with 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 win. Matsuzaka pitched 7 innings while only giving up 2 earned runs. The game was also his third consecutive quality start following three rather lackluster outings at the beggining of July.

On a little more interesting note...Saturday's game also continued a streak of nine consecutive Dice-K starts in which the Red Sox have alternated wins and losses. That means Red Sox fans can pretty much go ahead and put an L on the calendar right now for August 10th, when the Red Sox face Erik Bedard and the Orioles. Regardless of recent history though, the matchup of Dice-K and Bedard promises to be quite the duel of young stud pitchers.

Now on to the fun part boys and girls. Who is Dice-K looking like this week? The answer to that question resides all the way across the country from Boston, in sunny Los Angeles. This week Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .62
QS%: .65
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.26
Salary: $6,333,333

Lowe 2006:
W%: .67
QS%: .59
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $9,500,000


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Barry Media Bias: Former Teammate Version

So now that Barry has tied the home run record, there are two things that you can expect; 1.) Barry is going to get walked like crazy. Seriously, nobody wants to be "that guy" that gives up 756. Barry walked three straight times after hitting 755, a streak that could continue for quite some time. 2.) The media is going to ramp up the lynch Barry campaign. While the first of those two points will have to wait until Monday, the media throwdown has already begun.

This time the media bias is coming out in this story over at ESPN about former Bonds teammate Brian Johnson.

I didn't know who the heck he was either.

In the article Johnson imparts the following bits of wisdom;

"You can make a fair argument that he may have been cheating," Johnson said. "Based on what has been documented, it's hard to dispute that argument."

"It was kind of a cloak-and-dagger society. Guys that were taking knew of each other and talked about things among themselves," Johnson said. "What I saw was that guys who were taking would never admit it, would never allow anybody to see. But it was pretty obvious to all of us that they were taking. ... Some people sold their soul to the devil and other people didn't."

Oh man, this is big news here! A former teammate seeing Barry huddling up with other steroid users? Saying it is hard to dispute that Barry cheated? This is such a smoking....pile of crap. What the story chooses to brush over is the fact that Johnson was only Bonds' teammate in the 1997 and 1998 seasons. For those not familiar with the Bonds' alleged steroid use timeline, that would be before Barry is alleged to have begun using steroids. Nobody has alleged that Bonds was juicing in '97 or '98...so why is Johnson such a Bonds expert, one worthy of being interviewed on TV and having his comments plastered on the front page of ESPN.com? The answer is that Johnson is not an expert on the situation, and that his interview is being spun against Barry just like the memorabilia story from yesterday.

It also really doesn't bolster ESPN's neutrality when this is on their front page as well:


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Barry Media Bias: Auction Version

Today another Barry Bonds story has hit the wires and as usual the media is trying its hardest to spin the story against Bonds. The story is as thus; Some auction company called Mastro Auctions had a baseball memorabilia auction yesterday. Some of the items that were sold included an autographed Hank Aaron jersey, Aaron's signed rookie contract, an autographed Aaron rookie card, an unautographed Aaron rookie card, and Bond's 70th home run ball from the 2001 season. During the auction the Aaron items each sold for more than the Bonds ball. So as can be expected from the Barry hating media, here is a sample of some of the headlines of the story:

Sportsline: Aaron items outsell Bonds' No. 70 HR ball
ESPN: Aaron memorabilia fetches more than Bonds items

And then here is an excerpt from the AP story:

"The ball was one of only a handful of items that didn't meet its estimated selling price, while all the Aaron memorabilia met or exceeded expectations, Allen said."

Now for some perspective that is sorely missing from both the headlines of this story and the story itself.


Point 1. We are talking about home run ball #70, not the record #73. Why should #70 really be expected to break the bank in an auction? Because it is a round number? I concede that the ball didn't meet the expected price, but who the heck appraised it? Expected auction prices are not an exact science by any means.

Point 2. The comparison of a Bonds item to Aaron items is inherently unfair. The price of sports memorabilia is highly dependent upon time and historical context. So is it really that suprising that fifty year old pieces of rare Aaron memorabilia outsold a not terribly historically signifigant Bonds home run ball that is less than a decade old? Of course not.

Point 3. It is not like these were the only items for sale at the auction. The press merely chose to ignore the other items, focus on the Bonds-Aaron angle, and make a binary Good/Bad comparison. What a joke. Anyone who believes the press isn't biased against Bonds after reading a story like this needs a lobotomy.

Also, the assertation by the auction house spokesman that the steroid scandal will forever hamper Bonds memorabilia...please. The 10th best selling piece of baseball memorabilia of all time is Shoeless Joe Jackson's "Black Betsy" bat. I guess the whole gambling scandal really had a lasting effect there.

If Babes Were Baseball Players

The trading deadline is past. Barry isn't hitting homers. A-Rod isn't hitting homers. Tom Glavine isn't winning. What is there left to talk about? I know; if today's celeb bikini beach crew were baseball players, who would they be?

Brooke Hogan = Barry Bonds

Lets compare Brooke Hogan and Barry Bonds...artificially enhanced? Check and Check. Looks like a man? Check and Check. Famous fathers? Check and Check. Steroids coursing through their veins? Check and Check. (Poor Brooke was born with em)

Cindy Crawford = Roger Clemens

Now this is how you would want to look when you are in your 40's. No, not like Clemens, like Cindy. Do you realize that she is 41 years old? Good grief. The Rocket is the only major leauger that is throwing heat equal to Cindy's at such an advanced age.

Britney Spears = Barry Zito

Isn't it a shame to see a once promising career go down in flames? This duo has gone from winning Grammys and Cy Youngs to losing hair and baseball games. Even though Zito's fastball has fallen into the 80's, Britney's hotness factor has fallen even lower.

Lindsay Lohan = Elijah Dukes

Both Lohan and Dukes seem to have all the right tools. Potential. Perfect physiques. Power. Too bad they also have something else in common; breaking the law. Between Lindsay's DUIs and Elijah's myriad of troubles, we may not see much of either of them except for on cable news gossip shows. (Interesting note; The picture for this one, with no cropping of my own, came out to exactly 666 pixels in width. I'm not sayin...I'm just sayin.)

Hayden Panettiere = Hanley Ramirez

They're both young. They're both sleek. They're both poised to become huge stars within the next year or two. And they both one of them looks great in bikinis.

Hillary Duff = Pittsburgh Pirates

Hillary sees all of the attention that Lindsay, Hayden, and Paris get for romping around in bikinis, so she decided to give it a try. When she does it though...it is just a little awkward. Kind of like how the Pirates wanted to feel like the Yankees and Red Sox for a day, so they went out and traded for a big money player in Matt Morriss. It is just that when the Pirates try to spend money, they do it awkwardly.

Paris Hilton = Alex Rodriguez

People will say that Paris and Alex are both spoiled rich, which is probably true. In their defense however, they are both extremely good at what they do. A-Rod is the best player in the majors right now and Paris does her best giving Fox News something to thumb their nose at every night. They also both have embarrassing incidents in their past, Paris with her sex tape and Alex with his Toronto stripper.

*As always, feel free to leave more suggestions in the comments, and I will update as needed.

UPDATE:

Lauren Conrad = Ernie Banks

Anonymous said...
"I would put LC from the Hills together with Ernie Banks...both are/were perpetually with a loser."

Tara Reid = Pat Burrell

Anonymous said...
"5 Years ago you would've done anything to meet Tara or have Burrell on your team, but now they are used up shells of what they once were and you just wish they'd take there old saggy bodies and go into hiding!"





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Dice-K Is Looking Like...Aaron Harang

Going into Sunday night's game against the Devil Rays, the worst team in baseball, most people would have guessed that Dice-K would pitch well and get a win. Well, that would be half right. Dice-K pitched 6.1 innings and only gave up two earned runs, but the Red Sox bats fell silent against Scott Kazmir and the Devil Rays in a 5-2 loss. This was Dice-K's second straight quality start after falling off the wagon a bit with three consecutive non-quality starts in the middle of July. As the Red Sox get ready for the stretch run, with the Yankees creeping ever closer, Boston has to be hoping that they get "Good Dice-K" down the stretch. If "Bad Dice-K" happens to come back, the Red Sox could find themselves in a tough spot come September.

As far as comparisons go, this week was tougher than others. This week Dice-K is looking like Aaron Harang. Harang matches up with Dice-K almost perfectly in three out of the four areas I look at each week, but he is way off in terms of quality start percentage. I decided to investigate as to why, and it turns out that the culprit behind Harang's .49 QS% was 7 starts over six innings in which Harang gave up exactly 4 ER. (You can only give up 3 ER to qualify as a quality start) So even though the number looks bad, Harang is a lot closer to Dice-K that it would seem.


Dice-K 2007:
W%: .6
QS%: .64
ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Harang 2006:
W%: .59
QS%: .49
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $2,350,000

Examining The "Evidence"

Last night ESPN aired a town hall meeting to discuss the Barry Bonds scandal. After watching it I came away with two clear conclusions; 1.) St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bryan Burwell is pretentious and thinks he is a lot smarter than he is, which is why he was booed numerous times by the crowd, and 2.) the mantra that kept being repeated against Bonds always came back to "look at these pictures, he is so much bigger now" and "how can he be so good at his age"? These two points seem to be the thrust of the Bonds steroids argument. In spite of all of the second hand allegations, there is still no person that has ever said that they saw Bonds taking steroids, and Bonds has never tested positive. So in the absence of any concrete proof, those who are certain that Bonds used steroids always come back to the two common sense arguments based on Bonds' physical change and elite performance at an advanced age.

For arguments sake, lets take a look at the these two arguments on the Bonds side, and then compare those same two arguments to another aging baseball hero; Roger Clemens.

Barry's Change:
Every single time that you hear an argument about Barry Bonds, someone flashes up a picture similar to this;



You really can't argue that Bonds has undergone quite a transformation since his rookie season with the Pirates. He went from being a lithe and skinny speedster to being a hulking slugger. The visuals speak for themselves in this regard. But don't men generally gain muscle mass as they age? Wouldn't being on a pro baseball team and having access to their weight training facilities as well as having the money to buy your own trainers also contribute to a much larger physique?

Barry's Performance:
So how on earth was Barry able to go from a really good home run hitter throughout his career to breaking the single season record at the age of 36 and then continuing to have 40 home run seasons into his 40's? Is there any precedent for such a run? The following year at age 37 Bonds hit 46 home runs, which stands as the second highest mark for a player that age. So who holds the record for age 37? Hank Aaron, with 47 homers. So how come Bonds performing at an elite level at an advanced age is an indictment against him, while Hank Aaron's performance at the end of his career is lauded as a measure of his consistency?

So now that we have looked at these two arguments as they pertain to Bonds, now lets turn our gaze to Clemens:

Roger's Change:
Do you remember what Roger Clemens looked like when he first entered the majors? Now, do you remember what he looked like with the Astros? In case you don't, here is a refresher;



You know what? Clemens got bigger as he got older. Imagine that.

Roger's Performance:
So you thought that Barry Bonds' recent performances were unbelievable for his age? Try this one on for size. In 2005 Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA at the age of 42. So how rare was this? It was the lowest ERA by a starting pitcher in their 40's since 1917, when Eddie Plank posted a 1.79 ERA. So how come Clemens can post historically amazing numbers in his 40's without arousing any suspicion, while Bonds hitting 40 homers in his 40's sets off the steroid alarm?

I'm not saying that Roger Clemens used steroids. I'm also not saying that Barry Bonds didn't use steroids. I'm merely pointing out how flimsy some of the common sense "evidence" against Bonds truly is.

Dice-K Is Looking Like...Erik Bedard

If there is one thing that can be said about Dice-K this season, it is that he has been consistently inconsistent. In June Dice-K was one of the top three pitchers in the AL, going 5/5 on quality starts and posting a 1.59 ERA for the month. After Dice-K threw eight shutout innings in his first July start, it looked as if he was finally over the hump and ready to be the staff ace that the Sox had envisioned all along. Then Dice-K went out and laid three straight eggs, going 1-2 with no quality starts over a three game stretch.

So of course, just when it seemed like Dice-K was ready to roll over and play dead, he goes out last night and out-duels CC Sabathia, tossing seven shutout innings to beat the Indians 1-0. Go figure. After his latest performance Dice-K's most comparable pitcher from last year is actually quite good news for both Dice-K and the Sox. The most comparable pitcher is very similar in age to Dice-K and is also experiencing a great deal of sucess this season. So this week, Dice-K is looking like...Erik Bedard.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .63
QS%: .62
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Bedard 2006:
W%: .58
QS%: .61
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.35
Salary: $1,400,000

Bonds' Ex To Appear In Playboy

Just when you thought that the Barry Bonds situation couldn't get any stranger, the New York Times is reporting that Bonds' ex-girlfriend Kimberly Bell is scheduled to appear in the November issue of Playboy. And just like you might have guessed, it won't just be pictures;

Bell’s agent, David Hans Schmidt, said that in addition to the photographs would be an article detailing her “personal and sexual relationship” with Bonds.

So what kind of details might we expect from such an interview? Well, take a peek at this article from the San Francisco Chronicle after Bell testified against Bonds in the BALCO case;

"Kimberly Bell, 35, a graphic artist from San Jose who says she dated Bonds from 1994 to 2003, told the grand jury Thursday that in 2000, the left fielder confided to her that he had begun using steroids, according to two sources familiar with an account of her testimony."

To make things even more interesting, the November issue of Playboy hits newsstands October 1st, right smack in the middle of baseball's playoff drama. So if you are sick of Bonds now, get ready for a whole new round of accusations and controversy just in time to ruin your enjoyment of the playoffs.

Hot Fan Showdown: Yanks vs. Sox

As the Yankees and Red Sox prepare for a battle for the AL East title, a number of questions arise. Will the Yankees be able to improve their middle relief? Will Julio Lugo ever learn how to play baseball again? Can Roger Clemens hold up the rest of the season? Can Curt Schilling hold up the rest of the season? While these questions are all good and pertinent queries, I have a much better question for you; who has the hotter celeb fans, Yanks or Sox?

Red Sox:

C: Giselle






















1B: Eliza Dushku






















2B: Jennifer Garner






















3B: Sarah Silverman






















SS: Maria Menounos






















LF: Shannon Elizabeth






















CF: Rene Russo






















RF: Amy Poehler






















DH: Christie Brinkley

Yankees:

C: Nicole Kidman






















1B: Jennifer Lopez


















2B: Mariah Carey






















3B: Britney Spears






















SS: Sarah Jessica Parker






















LF: Tea Leoni






















CF: Sarah Michelle Gellar






















RF: Kyli Ryan






















DH: Marilyn Monroe

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