Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe

On Saturday night against the Mariners Dice-K continued his recent run of success, matching his season high with 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 win. Matsuzaka pitched 7 innings while only giving up 2 earned runs. The game was also his third consecutive quality start following three rather lackluster outings at the beggining of July.

On a little more interesting note...Saturday's game also continued a streak of nine consecutive Dice-K starts in which the Red Sox have alternated wins and losses. That means Red Sox fans can pretty much go ahead and put an L on the calendar right now for August 10th, when the Red Sox face Erik Bedard and the Orioles. Regardless of recent history though, the matchup of Dice-K and Bedard promises to be quite the duel of young stud pitchers.

Now on to the fun part boys and girls. Who is Dice-K looking like this week? The answer to that question resides all the way across the country from Boston, in sunny Los Angeles. This week Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .62
QS%: .65
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.26
Salary: $6,333,333

Lowe 2006:
W%: .67
QS%: .59
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $9,500,000


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Dice-K Is Looking Like...Aaron Harang

Going into Sunday night's game against the Devil Rays, the worst team in baseball, most people would have guessed that Dice-K would pitch well and get a win. Well, that would be half right. Dice-K pitched 6.1 innings and only gave up two earned runs, but the Red Sox bats fell silent against Scott Kazmir and the Devil Rays in a 5-2 loss. This was Dice-K's second straight quality start after falling off the wagon a bit with three consecutive non-quality starts in the middle of July. As the Red Sox get ready for the stretch run, with the Yankees creeping ever closer, Boston has to be hoping that they get "Good Dice-K" down the stretch. If "Bad Dice-K" happens to come back, the Red Sox could find themselves in a tough spot come September.

As far as comparisons go, this week was tougher than others. This week Dice-K is looking like Aaron Harang. Harang matches up with Dice-K almost perfectly in three out of the four areas I look at each week, but he is way off in terms of quality start percentage. I decided to investigate as to why, and it turns out that the culprit behind Harang's .49 QS% was 7 starts over six innings in which Harang gave up exactly 4 ER. (You can only give up 3 ER to qualify as a quality start) So even though the number looks bad, Harang is a lot closer to Dice-K that it would seem.


Dice-K 2007:
W%: .6
QS%: .64
ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Harang 2006:
W%: .59
QS%: .49
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $2,350,000

Dice-K Is Looking Like...Erik Bedard

If there is one thing that can be said about Dice-K this season, it is that he has been consistently inconsistent. In June Dice-K was one of the top three pitchers in the AL, going 5/5 on quality starts and posting a 1.59 ERA for the month. After Dice-K threw eight shutout innings in his first July start, it looked as if he was finally over the hump and ready to be the staff ace that the Sox had envisioned all along. Then Dice-K went out and laid three straight eggs, going 1-2 with no quality starts over a three game stretch.

So of course, just when it seemed like Dice-K was ready to roll over and play dead, he goes out last night and out-duels CC Sabathia, tossing seven shutout innings to beat the Indians 1-0. Go figure. After his latest performance Dice-K's most comparable pitcher from last year is actually quite good news for both Dice-K and the Sox. The most comparable pitcher is very similar in age to Dice-K and is also experiencing a great deal of sucess this season. So this week, Dice-K is looking like...Erik Bedard.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .63
QS%: .62
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Bedard 2006:
W%: .58
QS%: .61
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.35
Salary: $1,400,000

Dice-K is looking like...Curt Schilling

On Saturday night Daisuke Matsuzaka once again reminded the nation of the fact that while he is indeed a tremendous talent, he is still struggling with consistency in his rookie campaign. Dice-K got the win against the Blue Jays, mainly on the strength of a five run sixth inning by the Red Sox in their 9-4 win against the Blue Jays. Dice-K gave up all four Blue Jays' runs over the course of six innings, including three in the sixth. The games was Dice-K's second straight lackluster performance after a June run during which he was arguably one of the top five pitchers in all of baseball.

After his latest outing Dice-K's season statistics are again very similar to the pitcher that we compared him to in May. So for this week we have a returning guest, as Dice-K is looking like....Curt Schilling.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .65
QS%: .63
ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $6,333,333

Schilling 2006:
W%: .68
QS%: .61
ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.22
Salary: $13,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Tom Glavine

All good things must come to an end, and such was the fate tonight of Daisake Matsuzaka's string of six consecutive quality starts. Dice-K was shelled by the Tigers, giving up six run and ten hits in five innings, including three home runs. While Dice-K and the Red Sox certainly would have hoped for a better start going into the All-Star break, Dice-K's brilliant month of June does buy him a great deal of slack. Another interesting note on Dice-K's performance this season is that his unpredictabilty as a pitcher is not only a rumor, but can be backed up by statistics. To explain, here are Dice-K's out statistics this season; 123 SO, 122 GB, 127 FB. In an age of strikeout specialists and ground ball pitchers it is very interesting that Dice-K has shown the ability to mix up his approach throughout the season. Now, on to the main course. This week, after a bit of a step back, Dice-K is looking like...Tom Glavine.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .63
QS%: .66
WHIP: 1.24
ERA: 3.84
Salary: $6,333,333

Tom Glavine 2006:
W%: .69
QS%: .68
WHIP: 1.33
ERA: 3.82
Salary: $10,500,000

Dice-K is looking like...Mike Mussina

Dice-K is proving all of the doubters wrong at this point. The Red Sox young star has shaken off some early season jitters to become one of the best pitchers in the majors in the past month. Dice-K's hot streak continued Tuesday night as he threw 8 shutout innings against the D-Rays while striking out nine batters. Over his past four starts Dice-K has an ERA of .62, giving up only two runs in 29 innings. If Matsuzaka had started his recent hot streak about two starts earlier he would have likely been in the All-Star game, and by the end of the season it could look rather strange if Dice-K is competing for a Cy Young without having been selected for the Mid-Summer Classic. As you might be able to tell by that intro, Dice-K's comparison this week has become substantially better than a month ago when he was looking like a Vicente Padilla clone. So who is it now? To answer that question, Dice-K is looking like...Mike Mussina.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .67
QS%: .71
WHIP: 1.19
ERA: 3.53
Salary: $6,333,333

Mike Mussina 2006:
W%: .68
QS%: .72
WHIP: 1.11
ERA: 3.51
Salary: $19,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Kenny Rogers

In case you hadn't noticed, Daisuke Matsuzaka has absolutely been on fire in the month of June. Going into tonight's game against the Mariners Dice-K had posted a 1.73 ERA in four consecutive quality starts this month, despite only having a 2-2 record over that period. Tonight's game was no different as Dice-K had his best performance of the season, striking out eight and only surrendering one earned run in 8 innings. Dice-K did not get a decision in tonight's game as the Mariner's went on to win 2-1 in extra innings. Dice-K has undergone a dramatic transformation in the month of June, going from an erratic and inconsistent starter in the season's first two months. In fact, during this month Dice-K has arguably been the third best starter in the entire AL. (Justin Verlander and Joe Blanton being the only pitchers ahead of him) Dice-K's strong June performance has greatly improved his measurables on the season, and the comparisons here on "Dice-K is looking like..." have likewise improved. So after tonight's performance Dice-K is looking like...Kenny Rogers.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .69
WHIP: 1.24
ERA: 3.80
Salary: $6,333,333

Kenny Rogers 2006:
W%: .68
QS%: .58
WHIP: 1.26
ERA: 3.84
Salary: $8,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Jeremy Bonderman Again

Dice-K had his fourth straight quality start last night, outdueling Greg Maddux to lead the Sox to a 2-1 victory over the Padres. Dice-K only gave up one run over six innings and lowered his June ERA to 1.73. Matsuzaka's performance showcased two of the problems he has been dealing with all season, his control and his propensity to give up big innings whn he gets into trouble situations. It seems that Dice-K has begun to improve his pitching in pressure situations, as shown by his ability to get out of a bases loaded jam in the 1st inning while only giving up one run. A month ago Dice-K would have given up three or four runs in that situation, but he seems to have grown more confident pitching in those scenarios. The flip side of that however, is what got Dice-K into that situation in the first place; inconsistent control. He walked five batters last night and if he is ever going to make the transition to being a true ace, that number will surely have to come down. As for the comparison, for the second week in a row Dice-K is looking like...Jeremy Bonderman.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .66
WHIP: 1.30
ERA: 4.01
Salary: $6,333,333

Jeremy Bonderman 2006:
W%: .63
QS%: .56
WHIP: 1.30
ERA: 4.08
Salary: $2,300,000

(Photo Credit: AP / Lenny Ignelzi)

Dice-K is looking like...Jeremy Bonderman

Everyone’s favorite roller coaster, Daisuke Matsuzaka, is climbing to the top of a pretty big hill. Boston’s 1-0 win over San Francisco on Friday was Matsuzaka’s 3rd consecutive quality start. Dice-K went 7 innings, didn’t give up a run, and struck out 8. Congrats to Dice-K for the well-earned win, but if the world’s most expensive roller coaster keeps plugging along, he’s in for one heck of a nasty drop. So, we predict that Dice-K will get shelled in his next two starts (at least).

Now that Dice-K’s quality start percentage has continued to climb, it has been a struggle to find a pitcher with a similar QS% and W%, along with an abysmal ERA. Nevertheless, without further ado, we present…Dice-K is looking like Jeremy Bonderman!

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .62
QS%: .64
WHIP: 1.27
ERA: 4.18
Salary: $6,333,333 (In case anyone cares, that's 782,483,292 yen as of June 15)

Jeremy Bonderman 2006:
W%: .63
QS%: .56
WHIP: 1.30
ERA: 4.08
Salary: $2,300,000

Dice-K is looking like...Vicente Padilla, Part III

Sunday night Dice-K matched up against Randy Johnson, and while Matsuzaka did pitch well, he and the Red Sox fell 5-1 against the Diamondbacks. Dice-K pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 ER while striking out nine batters and walking four. The four walks are somewhat of a cause for concern for the Red Sox, but Dice-K was able to pitch out of trouble for the most part Sunday night.

After his fourth tough loss of the season (a tough loss being defined as a loss in a game where the pitcher made a quality start), Dice-K's winning percentage and quality start percentage are almost exactly equal, meaning that his 7-5 record, despite his recent bad luck, is indeed reflective of the quality of his overall pitching performance this season. In a shocking development, after his latest performance Dice-K is looking like, for the third time, Vicente Padilla. So I suppose that unless Matsuzaka makes some large change for better or worse, it seems that he is continually evening out to the Padilla level of performance. So is that what the Red Sox paid $102 million for? Hmm...

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .58
QS%: .62
WHIP: 1.31
ERA: 4.52
Salary:$6,333,333

Padilla 2006:
W%: .60
QS%: .61
WHIP: 1.38
ERA: 4.50
Salary:$4,400,000

Dice-K is looking like...Freddy Garcia

Baseball has a way of evening itself out, and that was exactly what happened last night to Dice-K and the Red Sox. Matsuzaka had been able to get wins earlier in the season in three games where he did not pitch well, and by all rights was due a tough loss. Dice-K pitched well in last night's 2-0 defeat against the Athletics, going 7 innings while only giving up two earned runs and striking out eight. His control continued to be solid, and even with two walks last night he now has surrendered only 5 free passes in his last five games.

The tough loss suffered by Matsuzaka last night has been very beneficial for the comparisons that we draw here after each of Dice-K's outings, as his win percentage is now much more in line with his quality start percentage. As such, and in looking back at the last few comparisons, Dice-K's relative standing in the game is becoming much more clear. Much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans however, that standing is not one of a staff ace that can step in after Curt Schilling retires. Rather, Dice-K is looking more and more like a top end 3rd starter. Don't believe me? Take a look at Dice-K's ranks among Major League starters in QS%, ERA, and WHIP:

QS%: 56th
ERA: 69th
WHIP: 55th

Given the fact that there are 30 Major League teams, on average every team has a pitcher better than Dice-K, and most have two. So is a top end 3rd starter worth (including the bidding price Boston paid) $17.3 million a year? Of course not. So, as the Dice-K picture continues to get clearer and clearer, Dice-K is looking like...Freddy Garcia.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .64
QS%: .58
WHIP: 1.31
ERA: 4.63
Salary:$6,333,333

Garcia 2006:
W%: .65
QS%: .55
WHIP: 1.28
ERA: 4.54
Salary:$9,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Jon Garland

So is this how it is gonna be for Dice-K this season? A couple of quality starts, a couple of bad starts, rinse and repeat? Dice-K is on the spin cycle of that trend right now, having his second straight poor outing, giving up 12 hits and 6 runs to the Indians in an 8-4 Red Sox loss. Matsuzaka fell prey yet again to the big inning, giving up 4 runs in the 6th. The Japanese import has had a very up and down season for Boston, coming out of the gate strong with three straight quality starts, followed by three poor starts, followed by three quality starts, followed by his past two bad outings. Three up, three down, three up...so will next start make it three more consecutive down outings for Dice-K? Well, his next start is scheduled to be on the road at Oakland, against perhaps the hottest pitcher in the majors, Dan Haren....so you be the judge.

Dice-K's current measurables actually set him up for a very close comparison in this installment of "Dice-K is looking like...". This week's comparable pitcher had a very high win percentage last season, even though he had an ERA over 4.50, a WHIP over 1.30, and a QS% under .60. He also had 4 cheap wins last year, a cheap win being defined as a win in a game where the pitcher did not have a quality start. For comparison, Dice-K already has three cheap wins on the season. So who is this lucky guy? He is this week's guest, and Dice-K is looking like...Jon Garland!

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .70
QS%: .55
WHIP: 1.31
ERA: 4.83
Salary:$6,333,333

Garland 2006:
W%: .72
QS%: .53
WHIP: 1.36
ERA: 4.51
Salary:$7,000,000

Dice-K is looking like...Vicente Padilla Again

Dice-K was shelled tonight, giving up 5 runs in the 4th against the Rangers. Thankfully for Red Sox fans everywhere however, the Sox bats came alive and pulled Dice-K out of trouble and into the winner's column with 2 runs in the 5th inning. So now Matsuzaka is the proud owner of a glowing 7-2 record, but I am sure he has a hollow feeling when he thinks of how his season has gone thus far. Dice-K's record is a greater reflection of Boston's run scoring prowess than of his own pitching ability. Now, this is not to say that he is a bad pitcher: far from it. Matsuzaka has had his moments of brilliance thus far, especially his past three starts leading up to tonight. What has been maddening though, is his inconsistency. What it boils down to are two issues, both of which were exhibited tonight:

1. Control Consistency: It seemed that Dice-K had turned the corner on his erratic ways, not surrendering a walk in his previous two starts. He walked 3 batters tonight however, marking the fifth time in ten starts this season that he had walked at least three. This does not even include his 4 hit batters and one wild pitch that he has also thrown this season. Dice-K is going to have to be more consistent in his location, because the extra base runners he has been allowing are part of his second problem...

2. The Big Inning: Dice-K has not shown the ability to pitch his way out of a tough situation. Rather, he has shown a propensity to lose his composure and give up runs in bunches. Don't believe me? In all seven games this season where Dice-K has given up more than one run he has had at least one inning where he gave up multiple runs, including five times this season where he has allowed three or more runs in a single inning.

If Dice-K is going to win on a consistent level, he is going to have to be able to pitch out of a jam and not put himself into a jam by allowing extra baserunners. While he has been able to get away with his early troubles this season against the Mariners, Rangers, and the reeling Yankees, if he is still having these same troubles come October the Indians, Angels, or Mets will gladly beat the tar out of him. The question remains then: what does the future hold? Will Matsuzaka pitch at the level of his previous three starts, or will he spend the entire season oscillating from game to game between the level of a staff ace and the level of an average 4th starter?

And so this leads us back to the matter at hand: who is Dice-K looking like? The answer is one that you have heard before, and it reflects the fact that Dice-K has regressed in light of his most recent outing. So lets give a big hand for our first ever return guest, Dice-K is looking like...Vicente Padilla!

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .78
QS%: .60
WHIP: 1.24
ERA: 4.43
Salary:$6,333,333

Padilla 2006:
W%: .60
QS%: .61
WHIP: 1.38
ERA: 4.50
Salary:$4,400,000

Dice-K is looking like...Jake Peavy

So as you may have noticed, these Dice-K comparisons have begun to get more and more favorable the past few starts. Dice-K continued his strong run of late in his latest start, pitching 8 innings and giving up 3 runs against the Braves. He also did not surrender a walk for the second straight game, making it 19.1 innings since Dice-K surrendered a free pass. Speaking of streaks, Matsuzaka has also won a string of five consecutive decisions. Point being: It is time to start being afraid. Very, very afraid.

Now as for our guest this week, this one is going to be a little different than usual. Lets call it, an educational case. This is because this week's comparison is blatantly off from Dice-K in one key regard, that being win percentage. Dice-K has won 75% of his decisions, behind run support of 4, 7, 11, 9, 7, and 13 in his wins. This week's guest shows just how important run support is to a pitcher, as his other measurables (quality start percentage, ERA, and WHIP) are almost identical to Dice-K's, but alas, he ranked near the bottom of the league in run support last season. So without further ado, this week Dice-K is looking like...Jake Peavy!

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .75
QS%: .66
ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.18
Salary: $6,333,333

Peavy 2006:
W%: .44
QS%: .66
ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.23
Salary: $2,500,000