Mark Buehrle and his agent had said all along that they would not back down from their demand for a no-trade clause from the Chicago White Sox. In the end however, Buehrle agreed to sign a 4 year, $56 million deal with the Sox which does not contain a full no-trade clause. Instead, the deal has a no-trade clause in the first year alone, and a trade in the second or third season would move his salary from $14 million to $15 million as well as add a fifth season, also at $15 million.
Buehrle's deal raises two questions. First, how much more could he have signed for as a free agent? And secondly, will this contract actually protect him from being traded? To answer the first question let's take a look at Buehrle's performance over the past six years. Buehrle has been remarkably consistent, as is witnessed by the following statistics;
Mark Buehrle12 Win Seasons: 6
16+ Win Seasons: 4
30+ Start Seasons: 6
200+ IP Seasons: 6
Not only has Buehrle pitched at a very high level, he has added value due to the fact that he is left handed and only 28 years old. To compare, here are the stats in those same categories from the top four pitchers from last year's free agent crop along with their contracts and ages at the end of last season:
Ted Lilly 30, 4 years, $40 million ($10 million per year)12 Win Seasons: 3
16+ Win Seasons: 0
30+ Start Seasons: 3
200+ IP Seasons: 0
Gil Meche 28, 5 years, $55 million ($11 million per year)12 Win Seasons: 1
16+ Win Seasons: 0
30+ Start Seasons: 2
200+ IP Seasons: 0
Jason Schmidt 33, 3 years, $47 million ($15.7 million a year)12 Win Seasons: 5
16+ Win Seasons: 2
30+ Start Seasons: 2
200+ IP Seasons: 3
Barry Zito 28, 7 years, $126 million ($18 million per year)12 Win Seasons: 5
16+ Win Seasons: 3
30+ Start Seasons: 6
200+ IP Seasons: 6
As you can see, pitchers with poorer results and far less consistencty over the past few years signed deals that were comparable or greater to the one Buehrle just signed. In fact, of the four above pitchers Zito is the most comparable as he was the same age as Buehrle, is also lefthanded, and had almost equal success and consistenct to Buehrle. So if he was able to get $18 million a year, how does Buehrle's contract in light of that fact? If Buehrle had hit the free agent market he would have likely commanded $16-$17 million a year. Proven and consistent lefties are a valuable commodity in baseball, and they are paid accordingly. By signing with the Sox for $14 million a year, Buehrle is likely giving up $8-$12 million over the life of the contract.
From Buehrle's perspective however, giving up that money is worth it if it means being able to stay in Chicago. So will the contract keep him in Chicago? To put it simply; no way on earth. If the White Sox don't improve next season Buehrle will be shipped out, no question about it. Even with the trade kicker, what big market team wouldn't want a 29 year old stud lefty for 4 years and $60 million? At that rate Buehrle would still be at or even slightly below the market value for a left handed pitcher of his age and ability. Buehrle lost big time in these contract negotations, and the money he gave up won't keep him in Chicago any longer than the first year of the contract.
