Yesterday I was driving to visit some friends, and along the way I decided to listen to some sports talk on the radio. Eventually I found the local ESPN Radio affiliate, and some random loud guy was on, as per usual. So I listened for a bit, and he started talking about the NFL over/unders for the upcoming season, i.e. how many games Vegas thought each team was going to win. It was an interesting enough discussion, that is, until he got to the Vikings. The line for them was at 6.5 games, and my jaw almost hit the steering wheel. My first instinct was to pull over and call everyone in my phonebook until I reached someone that could place a $1,000 under bet as soon as possible. I mean, the Vikings, winning 7 games or more this year? I don't think there is easier money in this world to be had than betting against that, and allow me to explain why.
Last season the Vikings went 6-10 with Brad Johnson as their main QB. Say what you will about Johnson, but there is little questioning that the man is still at least an efficient QB. He might throw a few more interceptions that he used to, but he is still going to complete 60+% of his passes and get your team first downs on a consistent basis. Johnson was never meant to be the long term answer for the Vikings at QB, but after last season the Vikings decided that they had indeed found their long term solution; Tarvaris Jackson. Yes, that Tarvaris Jackson. The rookie QB from Division I-AA Alabama State that the Vikings drafted in the second round last year, at least two if not three rounds higher than he should have been drafted. The same Tarvaris Jackson that played in a spread offense in college and is now being thrust into the starting spot on an NFL team that plays an extremely precise West Coast offense that depends on a high completion percentage and being able to get first downs consistently via short to mid range passes. To make things even better, the safety net for the Vikings is Brooks Bollinger. The best way to express just how awful the Vikning's QB situation is this; they are heading into the season with two third string caliber QBs as their starter and backup. Seriously, name a backup QB in the NFL you would not put in a game right now over Tarvaris Jackson. To put it another way, if you put Jackson on the Bears, Packers, or Lions, there would be no guarantee that Jackson would even make the roster. And this is your starting QB Minnesota?
Don't get me wrong; this is not meant to be a Tarvaris Jackson hate fest. Jackson does have a number of good tools, and showed last season that he was extremely talented with his feet. My main problem is with the Vikings coaching staff thinking it is a good idea to thrust Jackson into the starting role in year 2. Look at the most recent I-AA to NFL success stories; Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, and Steve McNair all had years to develop properly before they were asked to take over a team. Jackson could one day be a good NFL QB; this year is just not that time.
On top of the terrible QB situation, the Vikings decided that the best way to use the #7 pick in the draft was to draft Adrian Peterson. Yes, that is right, a running back. If you are not familiar with the Vikings, you may not be aware that 1.) they just signed Chester Taylor to a big free agent contract last summer to be their starting RB and 2.) the Vikings also have Mewelde Moore, Artose Pinner, and Ciatrick Fason on their roster who have all seen a decent amount of playing time in recent seasons. So a team that is rolling 4 deep at RB and has Tarvaris Jackson at QB doesn't think drafting, oh, Brady Quinn might be a good idea?
So the Vikings have a logjam at RB, nothing at QB, and the WR corps? Just a few short years ago the Vikings had arguably one of the best units in the NFL, if not the best, when they boasted the likes of Randy Moss, Cris Carter, and Nate Burleson. And now? For all the potential in the world, having Troy Williamson, Sidney Rice, and Bobby Wade as your top WRs is not a good situation. And at TE? In recent seasons the Vikings had employed the services of Jermain Wiggins, who is a pretty darn good receiving TE. And now? Wiggins is in Jacksonville and the Vikings are headed into the season with Jim Kleinsasser as their starting TE.
To answer your question; yes, it is just as bad as it sounds. The Vikings have too many RBs to get any of them a fair amount of carries and a young, raw QB who will go into the season with no weapons at WR or TE. So would you want to put money on the Vikings winning over 6.5 games? No way. I'll take that under bet any day and come out a rich, rich man.
