A Move Most Odd Part II

I thought that the most lopsided trade of the NBA off-season occurred last week when the San Antonio Spurs gave Jackie Butler and Luis Scola (A starting caliber PF) to the Rockets for a 2nd round draft pick and a player (Vassilis Spanoulis) that is never going to play in the NBA again.

Well, I was wrong.

The Phoenix Suns found a way to be even more charitable than the Spurs, as they executed the following trade with the Sonics:

"The Seattle SuperSonics acquired veteran forward Kurt Thomas and the Phoenix Suns' first-round draft choices in 2008 and 2010 on Friday in exchange for a conditional second-round draft choice.

Seattle also sent Phoenix its $8 million trade exception to complete the deal."

The reasoning of course, is that the Suns are trying to clear room so that they can keep the trio of Shawn Marion, Steve Nash, and Amare Stoudemire intact. That is a fine and good rationale in all reality. The way that the Suns are going about doing it however, is absolutely asinine. Lets start by looking at this trade. The Suns shipped two first rounders and an $8 million expiring contract for a conditional second round pick and an $8 million trade exception. The logic would be that getting rid of the first round picks gets rid of two guaranteed contracts down the line. The rest of the deal makes no sense however, as why on earth would a team that is looking to cut cap ever use an $8 million trade exception? The Suns won't use it, so the deal essentially breaks down as two first rounders and Kurt Thomas for a conditional second round pick.

Now, combine this with the fact that the Suns have sold two first round picks in the past two years for a combined $6 million in cash, and now we have a problem. That is four first round picks gone with only one on-court asset coming back to the Suns. Well, one asset if the conditional second round pick from the latest trade is ever triggered. What the Suns are doing right now is sacrificing their future to avoid the luxury tax. Look at it this way; could the Suns have traded each of those four first round picks for a second rounder and a little cash instead of the deals they made? If they had employed that strategy they could have at least had four players to stash in the D-League or Europe, and if Steve Kerr can evaluate talent at all at least one or two of those picks would likely pan out in time.

Here is the truth; these moves are setting the Suns up for disaster as soon as Steve Nash exits the stage. There will be no smooth transition, no minor dip in performance. The team will shatter. Do you really think Shawn Marion will stick around once Nash is gone? No way. Then the Suns will be left with a core of Leandro Barbosa, Stoudemire, and Boris Diaw (whose nearly $10 million a year contract is what is causing all this trouble in the first place). Too bad they won't have any young talent left to ease the transition. It'll all be playing in Seattle.

Start Your Engines

Today is the first day that NBA free agents can officially sign new contracts. So other than a few deals we already know about being made official, what other storylines are there to follow in the next few days? Here is a look at the current status of some of the top remaining free agents:


Gerald Wallace: Most speculation has Wallace re-signing with Charlotte for a 6 year deal worth in the neighborhood of $60 million. There are persistent rumblings however, that Dallas still has a strong interest in Wallace. The Mavericks have been mentioned in the Wallace discussion ever since free agency began, and for the life of me I can't understand why they are interested. Don't they already have a young and athletic small forward in Josh Howard? Why would Dallas want to bring in another $10 million a year guy just to back him up? Even beyond that however, for Dallas to sign Wallace it would require a sign and trade deal with Charlotte. All signs seem to point to Wallace taking the easy route and taking the long term deal from the Bobcats. The second order effects of that signing would be very interesting to observe in Charlotte, mainly in regards to the future of Adam Morrison. The team just recently brought in Jason Richardson via a trade (signed for the next four years), re-signed SG Matt Carrol to a six year contract, drafted SF Jared Dudley with their 1st Round pick, and are close to re-signing Wallace. What kind of message do those signings send to Morrison after a lackluster rookie campaign? It would seem to me that management might be saying none too subtly that they are ready to cut their losses with Morrison.


Where Does Mo Go?: After Chancey Billups and the Pistons agreed to terms on contract extension Mo Williams suddenly found himself as the best point guard available in free agency. As luck would have it though, three of his potential destinations have dried up; the Lakers took Javaris Crittenton in the draft and then signed Derek Fisher, the Grizzlies took Mike Conley, and the Hawks selected Acie Law. Those moves essentially leave Williams with only two options, one being re-signing with the Bucks to the tune of about $8 million a year, or taking less money to go to the Miami Heat. What his choice essentially boils down to is whether or not he wants to compete for a championship now, which would require taking less money, or if he is willing to stay with Milwaukee through their rebuilding process.


Rashard Lewis is Stinkin Rich: It has just been reported that the Magic and Sonics have agreed upon a sign and trade deal for Rashard Lewis, with Orlando sending Seattle a second round pick. This move will allow Orlando to sign Lewis to a six year deal worth $127.2 million. Lewis will make $25.6 million in the final year of the contract. Read that last sentence again, and then try and tell me this deal is not going to be a disaster for the Magic, especially since it means that they won't have enough money to re-sign Darko Milicic which happens to complicate another situation...


Memphis Wants Your Big Man: One of the more interesting and and least talked about subplots in free agency is the Grizzlies mission to acquire a big man to pair with Pau Gasol. Going into the draft the Grizzlies had two glaring holes in their roster at point guard and power forward, and they wisely chose to address the point guard issue in the draft considering the previously discussed lack of quality point guards on the free agent market. The free agent crop at power forward however, is much more promising. Initially the Grizzlies were rumored to be after Chicago's Andres Nocioni, but the Bulls and Nocioni have since agreed to an extension. That leaves Anderson Varejao and now Darko as the Grizzlies' two main targets. Varejao is a restricted free agent and the Cavs have been saying all along that they will match any offer. So assuming that Memphis does not vastly overpay Varejao in order to dissauade Cleveland (which is in luxury tax territory) from matching the deal, that leaves Memphis with Darko.

The G(m) Spot: Magic Sign Lewis

The Deal: Barring a sign and trade, the deal will be a max contract worth roughly $75 million over five years.

For the Magic: To put it bluntly, this is huge for the Magic. Last season Hedo Turkoglu was their starting SF, and to replace him in the starting lineup with an All-Star player makes the Magic an extremely dangerous team in the East. Lewis' perimeter touch and offensive arsenal will take a lot of pressure off of Dwight Howard down on the block, spreading the floor and giving Howard more room to operate. You thought Howard was nasty last season? Just wait and see what kind of havoc he is able to wreak now that teams won't be able to constantly double team him every time he touches the ball. The other shoe that is going to drop in this deal though is that the Magic will have to renounce the rights to Darko Milicic in order for the signing to work under the cap. Losing Darko leaves the Magic precariously thin in the frontcourt behind Howard, but that is obviously a risk they are willing to take in order to get Lewis on board. The Magic might be able to keep Milicic if they are able to convince Seattle to work a sign and trade for Lewis, creating enough space under the cap to retain the rights to Darko.

For the Sonics: I just can't believe that the Sonics thought there was any way that they were going to lose Lewis when they traded Ray Allen. Maybe I am wrong, but the Allen trade seemed to me like the Sonics were sending a message to Lewis that they wanted him to be the star to mentor Kevin Durant. Not to be too terribly harsh but the Sonics better pray to the Lord that Kevin Durant truly is the next great swing player sooner rather than later, otherwise they could be looking at a rough next two or three years. Looking at the Sonics roster, here is what they have; three centers that can be described as projects at best (Robert Swift, Saer Sene, and Johan Petro), three unproven point guards (Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson, and Delonte West), a couple of swing projects (Damien Wilkins and Mikael Gelabale), two decent forwards (Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox), Wally Szczerbiak, and two stud rookies who both happen to play the same position (Durant and Jeff Green). So to recap, no real point guard, no real center, and their four best players play either SF or PF. Eww.

NBA Draft: Trade Breakdown

Heading into the NBA Draft last night the media had prepared America for a night full of big name players being traded, and that is exactly what happened. The twist though, was that the three big name players that changed teams last night were not Shawn Marion, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal. Instead Ray Allen, Zach Randolph, and Jason Richardson were sent packing. Here is a look at each of the three big deals and how they work out for each of the teams involved:

Trade#1
Seatle Receives: Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and the #5 pick, Jeff Green
Boston Receives: Ray Allen and the #35 pick, Glen Davis
What Gives?: From Seattle's perspective this trade means one thing; Sam Presti and Sonics management want Rashard Lewis more than they want Ray Allen. The trade of Allen opens the door for Lewis to sign with the Sonics during free agency, and with new weapons Kevin Durant and Jeff Green Seattle could be downright fearsome in the next few seasons. Green would be the perfect complement to Durant and Lewis, as he is a player that can make a big impact on the game without taking shots. Green's top notch passing skills will allow Durant and Lewis to quite possibly become the most potent scoring duo in the NBA. I don't really like this trade as much for Boston. The Celtics have already tried pairing Paul Pierce with a high scoring shooter in Antoine Walker, and that duo was never able to get Boston over the hump. I would be afraid that adding Allen's shots to Pierce's might stunt the progress of Al Jefferson, especially since the Celtics had to give up Delonte West who might have been able to keep Jefferson involved in the offense in spite of the 40 shots a night that the Celtics' two stars will require. I thing if Ainge had stayed at #5 and picked a post player to compliment Jefferson (Yi Jianlian? Brandan Wright?) the Celtics would have been much better off in the long run.

Trade #2
Portland Receives: Steve Francis and Channing Frye
New York Receives:Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, and Fred Jones
What Gives?: From a pure player value perspective Portland got killed in this trade. The benefits of this move for Portland are not in the actual players received however, as the key word for them in this trade is flexibility. Everyone on the planet knew that with Greg Oden coming to town to join LaMarcus Aldridge in the Blazers' frontcourt that Randolph and the four years remaining on his contract were going to be heading out of Portland. Letting go of Randolph in and of itself will free the Blazers' two newest big men to get the appropriate amount of playing time to develop. The deal also grants Portland a great amount of salary cap flexibility as Steve Francis' contract has only two years remaining as compared to the four remaining on Randolph's. The summer that Francis' contract expires coincides with the expiration of Raef LaFrentz's contract, meaning that the Blazers will clear $30 million of contracts off the books after the 2009-2010 season. That kind of cap room is going to give the Blazers the ability to bring in pretty much any free agent they could desire. Who wouldn't want the chance to play with Oden? And as an added bonus, Channing Frye is a great third man for Portland's frontcourt rotation. From the Knick's perspective this trade is fantastic. Pairing Randolph with Eddy Curry? In the East? For only the price of Channing Frye and Steve Francis' terrible contract? Wow. I have not liked a lot of the moves made by Isaiah Thomas in the past, but this one certainly looks like a winner. Curry and Randolph automatically become the most feared frontcourt duo in the East, hands down. Not only that, they are both young and signed through the next four years. This move just might be the one that finally turns the Knicks around. Dickau and Jones are each in the final years of their contracts, so they are essentially throwaways in this trade.

UPDATE: Are the Blazers going after Shawn Marion now? Check here for the latest.

Trade #3
Charlotte Receives: Jason Richardson and the #36 pick, Jermareo Davidson
Golden State Receives: The #8 pick, Brandan Wright
What Gives?: Chris Mullin may not have often gotten the best of Michael Jordan during their playing days, but Mullin completely ate Jordan's lunch on this deal. Let me put it this way; if Golden State could have dumped Richardson in exchange for a 2nd rounder this still would have been a good deal in a lot of ways. Richardson was not performing to the value of his contract, which has 4 years and over $50 million remaining on it. That is certainly not the kind of money you want to pay to a player that just finished a season where he only averaged 16 points per game. Getting rid of Richardson also shows a commitment by the Warriors to Monta Ellis, who will now have an opportunity to show that his breakout season of last year was no fluke. Without Richardson on board the Warriors will also likely be able to re-sign Matt Barnes. So Golden State in one swift move was able to ditch an overpaid player, give an emerging star a bigger role on their team, and give themselves the ability to keep one of their key role players. Oh, and there is also the fact that they also received a prospect that many people had rated as being perhaps the third best prospect in the entire draft in Brandan Wright, a lanky and athletic power forward that will fit perfectly into their system. Are you kidding me? This trade is a massacre of the highest order. Michael Jordan just needs to hang it up as a GM; as an executive he is as dangerous to his own team as he was to his opponents as a player.

Here We Go Again

You knew it was coming, right? It was way too easy for people to just fall in line and agree that the Trail Blazers would be insane not to take Greg Oden. So now people like Bill Simmons are calling for the Blazers to take Kevin Durant, and even Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard seems to be sending mixed signals about who he is going to spend the pick on, saying:

"We're gonna look at everything," Pritchard said. "I think what's going to be important is putting them in a position out here where we can see both their strengths and their weaknesses with our coach putting an emphasis in those areas. Because in a game, all you see is a coach putting their players in a (position) of strength."

To play devil's advocate for a moment, here are the reasons why people are suddenly jumping on the Durant to Portland bandwagon:

- The Blazers already have Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge inside, so they don't need Oden.
- If the Blazers do take Oden, they would have to dump Randolph for cheap.
- Oden might have some long term health issues with his wrist.
- Oh Golly! Kevin Durant is so good!

Granted, these arguments all have varying degrees of validity. These arguments however, and the people that make them, are ignoring some simple facts:

Fact #1: Big Men Win Rings
Take a look at recent NBA history. The Spurs have won 4 titles with Tim Duncan being the main reason for those wins. Shaq has 4 titles in recent years as well. Hakeem won 2 titles while Jordan was retired. To put it simply, NBA titles in the past 15 years have been won by teams led by either a dominant big man or Michael Jordan. (The Pistons being the one exception, though one could argue the Wallace Brothers were the key to their win.) Greg Oden just happens to be a dominant big man; Kevin Durant does not happen to be the next Jordan. Try this one on for size: do you think that Durant is better than LeBron? If not then after seeing LeBron fall to Tim Duncan in this year's Finals how can you reasonably advocate picking Durant over Oden?

Fact #2: Reggie Bush Is Better Than Mario Williams
Stay with me on this one. Two years ago the Houston Texans had the easiest choice in the world at the top of the draft. Reggie Bush was sitting there having just won the Heisman Trophy and producing more insane highlights on a college football field than any man since Barry Sanders. So what did the Texans do? They decided that since they had a decent running back in Domanick Davis (Zach Randolph) and a weakness at defensive end (small forward) that they should take Williams (Durant) over Bush (Oden). Granted, Durant is a better football player than Mario Williams, but the comparison still holds true. The Saints actions in that draft are the model which the Blazers should follow. Even though New Orleans still had Deuce McCallister they took Bush anyway, and the Blazers would be wise to follow their example even though they already have Randolph and Aldridge. If the Blazers talk themselves out of drafting Oden they will be cursing themselves in four or five years when Oden and Ray Allen have a championship and the Blazers are merely one of the highest scoring teams in the league.

Fact #3: Joe Dumars > Dominique Wilkins
The header on this one could also read "Tim Duncan > Steve Nash" or "Shaq > Vince Carter". Point being, people that are rooting for the Blazers to take Durant over Oden are rooting for excitement over actual common sense. Is Durant really any better than Carmelo Anthony, the last freshman small forward to take the country by storm? At least Anthony won the national championship, something that cannot be said of Durant. People that want Durant over Oden are the same people that think the Spurs are boring and want the Phoenix Suns to be NBA champs every season. They are missing the point. Substance > Style.

So will the Blazers take Durant? I don't think so, not just because it would be the wrong move but also because Pritchard would find himself out of the NBA for life if it didn't work out. In this case Oden is both the safe pick, and more importantly, the right one.

NBA Lottery: Initial Thoughts

The NBA Draft Lottery has concluded, and the order for this summer's draft has been set. The top three picks ended up going to Portland, Seattle, and Atlanta. So in the aftermath, here are some initial thoughts on what tonight's proceedings are going to mean a few months from now:

Portland Needs To Think Like New Orleans: What I mean is that Portland needs to ignore the temptation of trading the top pick, or even selecting Kevin Durant, and instead follow the example of the New Orleans Saints, who selected Reggie Bush even though they already had a Pro Bowl back in Deuce. The Blazers already have Zach Randolph and the promising LaMarcus Aldridge, but Oden is just too good to pass up. Don't do anything stupid Blazers. Pretty much the only acceptable trade would be something along the lines of Kevin Garnett, the #7 pick, and a future first rounder in exchange for the #1 spot and Darius Miles (to get the three years remaining on his contract off of the books).

Seattle Just Got Nasty...Maybe: With the presumptive choice of Kevin Durant the Sonics could boast a starting lineup next season of Earl Watson, Ray Allen, Durant, Rashard Lewis, and Nick Collison. The trio of Allen, Lewis, and Durant would give the Sonics more skilled scorers than just about any team in the league, and allow them to play more of the up tempo style that is all the rage in the NBA these days. This might come undone however, if Lewis opts out of the final two years of his contract. Will the allure of teaming with Durant be enough to keep Lewis in Seattle?

Atlanta Lucked Out: The temptation is to say that Atlanta missed out on one of the top two picks, and therefore should be dissapointed in the results. If you really look at it though, the lottery worked out perfectly for the Hawks. If they had finished outside the top 3 they would have lost their pick to Phoenix, and if Indiana had cracked the top 10 Atlanta would not have received their pick. Neither scenario occurred, and the Hawks now find themselves with two of the first 11 picks. Looking at their roster, it would seem that their needs are fairly obvious. Between Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress they have four lottery picks at the 3 and 4 spots, and then they have Joe Johnson manning the 2 spot. The areas of need rest at PG and C, so don't be suprised if the Hawks go against the draft board and take Mike Conley with the #3 pick, and perhaps Spencer Hawes or Roy Hibbert at the #11 spot to fill their need at center.

Bill Simmons Needs A Tissue: Wow. This is essentially the worst case scenario for the Celtics. Instead of landing a difference maker in Oden or Durant, the Celtics fell all the way to #5. At that spot, assuming that the top four picks go something like Oden, Durant, Conley, Wright, the Celtics could be faced with selecting either Yi Jianlian, Jeff Green, or Corey Brewer. At this point, it really would not be a suprise if the Celtics traded down, but the release of rumors to that effect might make getting a fair deal much more difficult.

Philly Better Have A Good Cell-Phone Plan: Every trade needs two partners, and the 76ers with picks #12, #21, and #30 would seem to be in the best position to jump further up into the top ten. The Sixers could be interested in a number of the PF prospects projected to be at the top of the draft, but could also stay put and look to fill their holes at SG and C later in the first round.

Well, There Goes Any Chance The East Had Left: With Oden and Durant both headed to the Western Conference, this year's lottery has helped to assure the Western Conference's dominance over the Least-ern Conference for the foreseeable future. That is, if it wasn't already assured.