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Tuesday, May 22, 2007

NBA Lottery: Initial Thoughts


The NBA Draft Lottery has concluded, and the order for this summer's draft has been set. The top three picks ended up going to Portland, Seattle, and Atlanta. So in the aftermath, here are some initial thoughts on what tonight's proceedings are going to mean a few months from now:

Portland Needs To Think Like New Orleans: What I mean is that Portland needs to ignore the temptation of trading the top pick, or even selecting Kevin Durant, and instead follow the example of the New Orleans Saints, who selected Reggie Bush even though they already had a Pro Bowl back in Deuce. The Blazers already have Zach Randolph and the promising LaMarcus Aldridge, but Oden is just too good to pass up. Don't do anything stupid Blazers. Pretty much the only acceptable trade would be something along the lines of Kevin Garnett, the #7 pick, and a future first rounder in exchange for the #1 spot and Darius Miles (to get the three years remaining on his contract off of the books).

Seattle Just Got Nasty...Maybe: With the presumptive choice of Kevin Durant the Sonics could boast a starting lineup next season of Earl Watson, Ray Allen, Durant, Rashard Lewis, and Nick Collison. The trio of Allen, Lewis, and Durant would give the Sonics more skilled scorers than just about any team in the league, and allow them to play more of the up tempo style that is all the rage in the NBA these days. This might come undone however, if Lewis opts out of the final two years of his contract. Will the allure of teaming with Durant be enough to keep Lewis in Seattle?

Atlanta Lucked Out: The temptation is to say that Atlanta missed out on one of the top two picks, and therefore should be dissapointed in the results. If you really look at it though, the lottery worked out perfectly for the Hawks. If they had finished outside the top 3 they would have lost their pick to Phoenix, and if Indiana had cracked the top 10 Atlanta would not have received their pick. Neither scenario occurred, and the Hawks now find themselves with two of the first 11 picks. Looking at their roster, it would seem that their needs are fairly obvious. Between Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress they have four lottery picks at the 3 and 4 spots, and then they have Joe Johnson manning the 2 spot. The areas of need rest at PG and C, so don't be suprised if the Hawks go against the draft board and take Mike Conley with the #3 pick, and perhaps Spencer Hawes or Roy Hibbert at the #11 spot to fill their need at center.

Bill Simmons Needs A Tissue: Wow. This is essentially the worst case scenario for the Celtics. Instead of landing a difference maker in Oden or Durant, the Celtics fell all the way to #5. At that spot, assuming that the top four picks go something like Oden, Durant, Conley, Wright, the Celtics could be faced with selecting either Yi Jianlian, Jeff Green, or Corey Brewer. At this point, it really would not be a suprise if the Celtics traded down, but the release of rumors to that effect might make getting a fair deal much more difficult.

Philly Better Have A Good Cell-Phone Plan: Every trade needs two partners, and the 76ers with picks #12, #21, and #30 would seem to be in the best position to jump further up into the top ten. The Sixers could be interested in a number of the PF prospects projected to be at the top of the draft, but could also stay put and look to fill their holes at SG and C later in the first round.

Well, There Goes Any Chance The East Had Left: With Oden and Durant both headed to the Western Conference, this year's lottery has helped to assure the Western Conference's dominance over the Least-ern Conference for the foreseeable future. That is, if it wasn't already assured.