Kevin Pritchard, meet Jon Gruden

The Portland TrailBlazers have been arguably the most active team during this NBA offseason. Through a myriad of draft picks, trades, buyouts, and free agent signings the look of the Blazers' roster has changed drastically. The big change of course was the addition of Greg Oden and the subtraction of Zach Randolph. Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard has not stopped there however, as he has made a number of other less high-profile moves.

There was the trade with the 76ers for the draft rights of PG Petteri Kopponen. Pritchard also drafted PG Taurean Green in the second round. Then today he signed free agent PG Steve Blake. See a pattern? With the Blake signing the Blazers now have the following PGs on their roster:

Jarrett Jack
Sergio Rodriguez
Steve Blake
Taurean Green
Petteri Kopponen

Kopponen will likely spend next season overseas, but that still leaves the Blazers with four PGs (as well as Brandon Roy who sometimes runs the point) on a roster that has the following SFs:

James Jones
Darius Miles

Miles likely won't play at all next season, leaving the Blazers with Jones and a number of unproven young players (Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Channing Frye) that would be playing somewhat out of position at the 3 spot.

The question would seem to be, what kind of trade Pritchard will make with his PGs? The Blazers have depth everywhere on the roster except for SF, so the logical answer would be that they would ship one of them (Jack most likely) in a package to get a SF to challenge James Jones for the starting spot. Otherwise, if Pritchard goes into to season paying five PGs (six if you count the Francis buyout) and only one true SF the Blazers could be in quite a bind. The smart money is on the Blazers still having a few trades left in them before the season starts.

Blazers Going For Marion?

I am going to preface this by noting that this entire situation is very fluid right now. There are a number of rumors circulating at present about the Portland Trailblazers and a possible move they might be making for a small forward. Over at True Hoop Henry Abbott has posted this rather cryptic blurb:

Pritchard's "cap expert," assistant GM Tom Penn, adds that "we have to formally complete the New York trade before we can finish another trade that we hope will happen." Penn estimates that will take a week to ten days for all this to be announced.

Later in the same press conference, someone asks about the teams's decision to draft Rudy Fernandez, and Pritchard says "that's part of the thing I'm not supposed to talk about, so I apologize for maybe letting it out a little bit."

I'm no expert on the collective bargaining agreement, but I'm guessing that this means something has to happen with Channing Frye (moving on?) or Steve Francis (being bought out?) before Rudy Fernandez can be shipped (with Frye, Pryzbilla, Jack, Koponen ... who knows?) somewhere for a small forward.

This actually makes a lot of sense. The Blazers made a ton of moves last night, and it seems like they have about 20 players on their roster right now. It would be logical that they are hording all these players in an attempt to swing a big trade. It also makes sense that such a trade would be aimed at a small forward, since that position is a glaring hole in the Blazers lineup right now. (They started Ime Udoka all last season and Darius Miles is essentially done) So who is the mystery small forward the Blazers are looking to get? None other than Shawn Marion according to Blazers Edge:

New York had agreed to a buyout with Francis. The buyout has Francis giving up his player option and taking about 10-15 million. Francis keeps the money, becomes a free agent, and may sign with another team. The buyout is transferable to Portland, meaning that if Francis signs with another team for the mid-level exception (5 million), the Blazers would only have 7.5 - 12.5 million count against the cap for this year, and nothing for next year. Letting Freddie and Dan expire this year would only have saved us 6.1 million. This way we eat the buyout and dump Zach's ridiculous contract. Francis will never wear a Blazer uni...

... the Blazers are targeting Shawn Marion. In this case, Francis is traded, with the exception, cash, and probably another cheap piece such as Webster or Jack, for Marion. By gaining the Francis buyout and dumping Marion, the Suns gain a ton of cap space, and Francis is a Blazer for about 10 days.

All I can say is, the Blazers would be completely nasty if this were to go down. Think about it, you would be talking about a starting lineup of Jack, Roy, Marion, Aldridge, and Oden. Good grief. If Kevin Pritchard pulls this off he will officially replace Bryan Colangelo as my favorite GM.

NBA Draft: Picks Breakdown

In examining the picks from last night's draft some of them are pretty simple to evaluate. Greg Oden to the Blazers. Good. Kevin Durant to the Sonics. Good. There were a number of intriguing picks and stories that developed during draft night, so here is a look at some of the most intriguing picks, whether they be steals, terrible picks, or just plain great picks:

The Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks selecting Yi Jianlian with the #6 pick
The Scoop: Leading up to the draft myself and many others pointed out the rather odd choice by Yi Jianlian and his representation not to let Milwaukee see Yi work out. Speculation was that Yi's camp wanted him to play in a large market with a big Chinese population, a description that did not exactly fit Milwaukee. Some even believed that if the Bucks were to select Yi that he would either try to force a trade or go back to China. The truth behind those beliefs is set to be revealed as there are already rumblings that Yi might not only miss the team's training camp later this year, but that he may not even show up for Milwaukee's post draft press conference tomorrow. Something tells me this pick may not have been worth the trouble. By the way, check out this picture of Yi from Time Magazine in 2003 when he was *15* years old. Yeah right, my left foot he is 15 in that picture.



The Pick: The Chicago Bulls selecting Joakim Noah with the #9 pick
The Scoop: I don't often agree with Stephen A. Smith, but I am completely with his analysis on this pick. To put it simply, The Bulls already have what Noah is selling. Isn't Tyrus Thomas the same player except with a slightly better offensive game? The Bulls did not need another high energy rebounder, what they needed was a scorer in the low post. The most distressing aspect of this pick was that there was indeed such a player available in Spencer Hawes who went to the Kings at #10. It isn't that Noah is a bad player, he just does not seem to be what the Bulls needed with that pick.

The Pick: The Washington Wizards selecting Nick Young with the #16 pick
The Scoop: Young fell a bit lower than where many people had projected him to go, but ending up in Washington may well be the perfect spot for him. The Wizards started DeShawn Stevenson at SG this past season essentially on a one year rental. Young is a major upgrade at that spot, and at worst will be the Wizard's 6th man headed into the season. His offensive skills combined with the Wizards up tempo style and hole at the SG spot will make Young an impact player sooner rather than later.

The Pick: Everything the Portland Trailblazers did
The Scoop: The Blazers had an unbelievable evening. Putting aside the Zach Randolph trade, here is a quick rundown of the moves and picks they made: Drafted Greg Oden with the #1 pick, traded cash to the Suns for the #24 pick which they used on Rudy Fernandez, traded cash and the #42 pick to the 76ers for the #30 pick Peteri Koponen, drafted Josh McRoberts with the #37 pick, drafted Taurean Green with the #52 pick, and finally they drafted Demetris Nichols with the #53 pick. It goes without saying that Oden is a great pick. The other five selections however, are what make this draft truly special. Fernandez and Koponen are great talents that can take the time to develop overseas and then come to Portland a few years down the road to contribute. The three second round picks of McRoberts, Green, and Nichols are complete and utter steals. McRoberts is a lottery talent that came out too early, Green was the floor general and leading scorer of the two time national champions, and Nichols was arguably the best three point shooter in the entire draft. To put it bluntly the Blazers' draft picks tonight, the $30 million in contracts that they have coming off the books in two seasons, and the fact that they already have Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge makes this team a championship contender sooner rather than later.

NBA Draft: Trade Breakdown

Heading into the NBA Draft last night the media had prepared America for a night full of big name players being traded, and that is exactly what happened. The twist though, was that the three big name players that changed teams last night were not Shawn Marion, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal. Instead Ray Allen, Zach Randolph, and Jason Richardson were sent packing. Here is a look at each of the three big deals and how they work out for each of the teams involved:

Trade#1
Seatle Receives: Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and the #5 pick, Jeff Green
Boston Receives: Ray Allen and the #35 pick, Glen Davis
What Gives?: From Seattle's perspective this trade means one thing; Sam Presti and Sonics management want Rashard Lewis more than they want Ray Allen. The trade of Allen opens the door for Lewis to sign with the Sonics during free agency, and with new weapons Kevin Durant and Jeff Green Seattle could be downright fearsome in the next few seasons. Green would be the perfect complement to Durant and Lewis, as he is a player that can make a big impact on the game without taking shots. Green's top notch passing skills will allow Durant and Lewis to quite possibly become the most potent scoring duo in the NBA. I don't really like this trade as much for Boston. The Celtics have already tried pairing Paul Pierce with a high scoring shooter in Antoine Walker, and that duo was never able to get Boston over the hump. I would be afraid that adding Allen's shots to Pierce's might stunt the progress of Al Jefferson, especially since the Celtics had to give up Delonte West who might have been able to keep Jefferson involved in the offense in spite of the 40 shots a night that the Celtics' two stars will require. I thing if Ainge had stayed at #5 and picked a post player to compliment Jefferson (Yi Jianlian? Brandan Wright?) the Celtics would have been much better off in the long run.

Trade #2
Portland Receives: Steve Francis and Channing Frye
New York Receives:Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, and Fred Jones
What Gives?: From a pure player value perspective Portland got killed in this trade. The benefits of this move for Portland are not in the actual players received however, as the key word for them in this trade is flexibility. Everyone on the planet knew that with Greg Oden coming to town to join LaMarcus Aldridge in the Blazers' frontcourt that Randolph and the four years remaining on his contract were going to be heading out of Portland. Letting go of Randolph in and of itself will free the Blazers' two newest big men to get the appropriate amount of playing time to develop. The deal also grants Portland a great amount of salary cap flexibility as Steve Francis' contract has only two years remaining as compared to the four remaining on Randolph's. The summer that Francis' contract expires coincides with the expiration of Raef LaFrentz's contract, meaning that the Blazers will clear $30 million of contracts off the books after the 2009-2010 season. That kind of cap room is going to give the Blazers the ability to bring in pretty much any free agent they could desire. Who wouldn't want the chance to play with Oden? And as an added bonus, Channing Frye is a great third man for Portland's frontcourt rotation. From the Knick's perspective this trade is fantastic. Pairing Randolph with Eddy Curry? In the East? For only the price of Channing Frye and Steve Francis' terrible contract? Wow. I have not liked a lot of the moves made by Isaiah Thomas in the past, but this one certainly looks like a winner. Curry and Randolph automatically become the most feared frontcourt duo in the East, hands down. Not only that, they are both young and signed through the next four years. This move just might be the one that finally turns the Knicks around. Dickau and Jones are each in the final years of their contracts, so they are essentially throwaways in this trade.

UPDATE: Are the Blazers going after Shawn Marion now? Check here for the latest.

Trade #3
Charlotte Receives: Jason Richardson and the #36 pick, Jermareo Davidson
Golden State Receives: The #8 pick, Brandan Wright
What Gives?: Chris Mullin may not have often gotten the best of Michael Jordan during their playing days, but Mullin completely ate Jordan's lunch on this deal. Let me put it this way; if Golden State could have dumped Richardson in exchange for a 2nd rounder this still would have been a good deal in a lot of ways. Richardson was not performing to the value of his contract, which has 4 years and over $50 million remaining on it. That is certainly not the kind of money you want to pay to a player that just finished a season where he only averaged 16 points per game. Getting rid of Richardson also shows a commitment by the Warriors to Monta Ellis, who will now have an opportunity to show that his breakout season of last year was no fluke. Without Richardson on board the Warriors will also likely be able to re-sign Matt Barnes. So Golden State in one swift move was able to ditch an overpaid player, give an emerging star a bigger role on their team, and give themselves the ability to keep one of their key role players. Oh, and there is also the fact that they also received a prospect that many people had rated as being perhaps the third best prospect in the entire draft in Brandan Wright, a lanky and athletic power forward that will fit perfectly into their system. Are you kidding me? This trade is a massacre of the highest order. Michael Jordan just needs to hang it up as a GM; as an executive he is as dangerous to his own team as he was to his opponents as a player.

What Happens To Zach?

Leading up to the NBA Draft there are All-Star caliber players whose futures will be signifigantly altered depending upon who their teams select. If the draft goes according to plan and Portland takes Greg Oden and Seattle takes Kevin Durant, than both Rashard Lewis and Zach Randolph will likely leave their respective teams. In Lewis' case he will just merely choose not to sign with the Sonics, but Randolph is in a much more complicated situation. There is no way that the Blazers can afford to keep Randolph and his $13+ million salary if they draft a center with a top two pick for the second consecutive year. (Portland picked LaMarcus Aldridge #2 overall last year) With both Oden and Aldridge, along with Raef LaFrentz and Joel Pryzbilla as well, Randolph will need to be moved to a different team. The question then is, where? And for who?

The "who" aspect of the equation is fairly simple. The Blazers are in desperate need of a SF. They started journeyman Ime Udoka last year, and Darius Miles is likely a non-factor after missing all of last season with microfracture surgery. Therefore the obvious move would be to ship Randolph to a team that 1.) Needs a scorer in the low post and 2.) has a dispensable SF. The following scenarios would fit those criteria:

Scenario #1
Portland Receives: Ron Artest and John Salmons
Sacramento Receives: Zach Randolph

In this scenario the Blazers would essentially be taking a one year loan out on Artest, as he has a player option he would likely decline after next season. Salmons however, would be the real catch of the deal. Salmons is signed through the next four seasons at base salaries ranging from $4.7 million to $5.8 million which would make him a very affordable starter while Portland's young core of Roy, Aldridge, and Durant developed. On Sacramento's end the Kings would rid themselves of Artest while gaining some sorely needed rebounding and inside scoring. The Kings ranked 30th in rebounding this past season, and Randolph would certainly go a long way in improving that ranking.

Scenario #2
Portland Receives: Andrei Kirilenko
Utah Receives: Vince Carter (sign and trade)
New Jersey Receives: Zach Randolph and Gordan Giricek

This three way deal would fill large voids for all of the teams involved. Utah has not had a solid SG in ages, and Carter would give them an elite scorer that could generate offense when the Utah offense stalls. Paul Milsap would then likely move into Kirilenko's former starting position. For New Jersey it would provide them the inside scoring threat they have been missing since Kenyon Martin left town and would also allow them to go after a SG prospect such as Rodney Stuckey or Morris Almond in the draft. From the Blazer's perspective Kirilenko would be the perfect SF for them, a player that does not need to score in order to make a big impact on the game. The trio of Oden, Aldridge, and Kirilenko would automatically become the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA.

Scenario #3
Portland Receives: Shawn Marion
Phoenix Receives: Vince Carter (sign and trade)
New Jersey Receives: Zach Randolph and Dan Dickau

The logic here would be the same for the Nets, and for the Suns this deal would alleviate the locker room tension between Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire while still being able to bring in equal value in return. Carter could slide to the 3 for the Suns with Boris Diaw then starting at the 4 spot. For Portland, Marion would give them the best chance at making an early splash in the West while Roy, Aldridge, and Oden are still on their rookie contracts.

Here We Go Again

You knew it was coming, right? It was way too easy for people to just fall in line and agree that the Trail Blazers would be insane not to take Greg Oden. So now people like Bill Simmons are calling for the Blazers to take Kevin Durant, and even Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard seems to be sending mixed signals about who he is going to spend the pick on, saying:

"We're gonna look at everything," Pritchard said. "I think what's going to be important is putting them in a position out here where we can see both their strengths and their weaknesses with our coach putting an emphasis in those areas. Because in a game, all you see is a coach putting their players in a (position) of strength."

To play devil's advocate for a moment, here are the reasons why people are suddenly jumping on the Durant to Portland bandwagon:

- The Blazers already have Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge inside, so they don't need Oden.
- If the Blazers do take Oden, they would have to dump Randolph for cheap.
- Oden might have some long term health issues with his wrist.
- Oh Golly! Kevin Durant is so good!

Granted, these arguments all have varying degrees of validity. These arguments however, and the people that make them, are ignoring some simple facts:

Fact #1: Big Men Win Rings
Take a look at recent NBA history. The Spurs have won 4 titles with Tim Duncan being the main reason for those wins. Shaq has 4 titles in recent years as well. Hakeem won 2 titles while Jordan was retired. To put it simply, NBA titles in the past 15 years have been won by teams led by either a dominant big man or Michael Jordan. (The Pistons being the one exception, though one could argue the Wallace Brothers were the key to their win.) Greg Oden just happens to be a dominant big man; Kevin Durant does not happen to be the next Jordan. Try this one on for size: do you think that Durant is better than LeBron? If not then after seeing LeBron fall to Tim Duncan in this year's Finals how can you reasonably advocate picking Durant over Oden?

Fact #2: Reggie Bush Is Better Than Mario Williams
Stay with me on this one. Two years ago the Houston Texans had the easiest choice in the world at the top of the draft. Reggie Bush was sitting there having just won the Heisman Trophy and producing more insane highlights on a college football field than any man since Barry Sanders. So what did the Texans do? They decided that since they had a decent running back in Domanick Davis (Zach Randolph) and a weakness at defensive end (small forward) that they should take Williams (Durant) over Bush (Oden). Granted, Durant is a better football player than Mario Williams, but the comparison still holds true. The Saints actions in that draft are the model which the Blazers should follow. Even though New Orleans still had Deuce McCallister they took Bush anyway, and the Blazers would be wise to follow their example even though they already have Randolph and Aldridge. If the Blazers talk themselves out of drafting Oden they will be cursing themselves in four or five years when Oden and Ray Allen have a championship and the Blazers are merely one of the highest scoring teams in the league.

Fact #3: Joe Dumars > Dominique Wilkins
The header on this one could also read "Tim Duncan > Steve Nash" or "Shaq > Vince Carter". Point being, people that are rooting for the Blazers to take Durant over Oden are rooting for excitement over actual common sense. Is Durant really any better than Carmelo Anthony, the last freshman small forward to take the country by storm? At least Anthony won the national championship, something that cannot be said of Durant. People that want Durant over Oden are the same people that think the Spurs are boring and want the Phoenix Suns to be NBA champs every season. They are missing the point. Substance > Style.

So will the Blazers take Durant? I don't think so, not just because it would be the wrong move but also because Pritchard would find himself out of the NBA for life if it didn't work out. In this case Oden is both the safe pick, and more importantly, the right one.

Oden Offer?

TrailBlazer's beat writer Jason Quick did an interview Friday with Blazer's Edge, and while most if it was generally lineup speculation and what-ifs concerning Zach Randolph, this particular exchange caught my eye:

"Q: Have you heard any rumors about offers for the #1 pick?

A: I know that two Western Conference teams have offered their superstars in return for their #1 pick and they are hall-of-famers. The Blazers turned down both."

Now, on the surface that is pretty impressive, as the Blazers are essentially saying that Oden is a sure fire Hall of Famer by turning down two such offers. Let's dig a little deeper though. If Quick's info is accurate, then there is a pretty narrow list of players that he could be referencing. So lets take a quick look at just who these players may have been.

Looking through the West, you can eliminate Utah, Golden State, NOOCH, the Clippers, Sacramento, Seattle, and Memphis right off the bat as far as having a Hall of Fame caliber player. From there you have Dirk in Dallas, Duncan in SA, Nash in Phoenix, McGrady in Houston, AI in Denver, Kobe in LA, and Garnett in Minnesota as the only true Hall of Famers in the West. Duncan is of course out of the running, since the Spurs would never imagine trading him, especially since they are on the verge of a 4th title. Nash also makes no sense, since it is obvious that the Suns are looking to ditch either Amare or Marion, not Nash. So that leaves Dirk, McGrady, AI, Kobe, and KG. Now think about that for a moment. If the info is correct, two of those five guys were offered to Portland. Wow.

So which two? AI doesn't seem likely since at this stage in his career that would not be a realistic trade offer. McGrady also smacks me as an odd trade, since with the up tempo trend in the NBA the Rockets would be a bit archaic with Yao and Oden in the post. So that leaves KG, Kobe, and Dirk. Of those three, KG is a given since he has been trying to get out of Minn. for years now. The question remains then: Kobe or Dirk? Well, if you believe the Lakers that they are not going to trade Kobe, and given the fact that Kobe has a no trade clause, it would seem to point to Dirk being the second man offered along with Garnett. So the Blazers likely turned down offers of both KG and Dirk for Oden. Crazy stuff.

NBA Lottery: Initial Thoughts

The NBA Draft Lottery has concluded, and the order for this summer's draft has been set. The top three picks ended up going to Portland, Seattle, and Atlanta. So in the aftermath, here are some initial thoughts on what tonight's proceedings are going to mean a few months from now:

Portland Needs To Think Like New Orleans: What I mean is that Portland needs to ignore the temptation of trading the top pick, or even selecting Kevin Durant, and instead follow the example of the New Orleans Saints, who selected Reggie Bush even though they already had a Pro Bowl back in Deuce. The Blazers already have Zach Randolph and the promising LaMarcus Aldridge, but Oden is just too good to pass up. Don't do anything stupid Blazers. Pretty much the only acceptable trade would be something along the lines of Kevin Garnett, the #7 pick, and a future first rounder in exchange for the #1 spot and Darius Miles (to get the three years remaining on his contract off of the books).

Seattle Just Got Nasty...Maybe: With the presumptive choice of Kevin Durant the Sonics could boast a starting lineup next season of Earl Watson, Ray Allen, Durant, Rashard Lewis, and Nick Collison. The trio of Allen, Lewis, and Durant would give the Sonics more skilled scorers than just about any team in the league, and allow them to play more of the up tempo style that is all the rage in the NBA these days. This might come undone however, if Lewis opts out of the final two years of his contract. Will the allure of teaming with Durant be enough to keep Lewis in Seattle?

Atlanta Lucked Out: The temptation is to say that Atlanta missed out on one of the top two picks, and therefore should be dissapointed in the results. If you really look at it though, the lottery worked out perfectly for the Hawks. If they had finished outside the top 3 they would have lost their pick to Phoenix, and if Indiana had cracked the top 10 Atlanta would not have received their pick. Neither scenario occurred, and the Hawks now find themselves with two of the first 11 picks. Looking at their roster, it would seem that their needs are fairly obvious. Between Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress they have four lottery picks at the 3 and 4 spots, and then they have Joe Johnson manning the 2 spot. The areas of need rest at PG and C, so don't be suprised if the Hawks go against the draft board and take Mike Conley with the #3 pick, and perhaps Spencer Hawes or Roy Hibbert at the #11 spot to fill their need at center.

Bill Simmons Needs A Tissue: Wow. This is essentially the worst case scenario for the Celtics. Instead of landing a difference maker in Oden or Durant, the Celtics fell all the way to #5. At that spot, assuming that the top four picks go something like Oden, Durant, Conley, Wright, the Celtics could be faced with selecting either Yi Jianlian, Jeff Green, or Corey Brewer. At this point, it really would not be a suprise if the Celtics traded down, but the release of rumors to that effect might make getting a fair deal much more difficult.

Philly Better Have A Good Cell-Phone Plan: Every trade needs two partners, and the 76ers with picks #12, #21, and #30 would seem to be in the best position to jump further up into the top ten. The Sixers could be interested in a number of the PF prospects projected to be at the top of the draft, but could also stay put and look to fill their holes at SG and C later in the first round.

Well, There Goes Any Chance The East Had Left: With Oden and Durant both headed to the Western Conference, this year's lottery has helped to assure the Western Conference's dominance over the Least-ern Conference for the foreseeable future. That is, if it wasn't already assured.