Wallace Stays...Wither Morrison?

Gerald Wallace has re-signed with the Charlotte Bobcats to the tune of 6 years and $57 million, ending speculation that he would end up in Dallas or elsewhere. Thea deal also includes a total of $12 million in bonuses, so the total value of the contract could be pushed up to $69 million. If you read the site reguarly, you are probably already aware that I like Gerald Wallace quite a bit. Why? Wallace has done things the right way on the way to his big payday. He plays hard on D, rebounds, and operates within the team scheme on offense. Think of him as Shawn Marion Lite. I guarantee you that Wallace will be a much better player six years from now than Rashard Lewis, even though Lewis will be making more than twice as much money.

Now that the signing is official, on to two big questions that concern the Bobcats:

Is This A Playoff Team?: Last season the Bobcats finished 33-49, seven games out of the playoffs. That finish continued the general upswing of the team, as they have improved their record in every season of the franchise's existence. Now consider this; the Bobcats posted that record while only getting partial seasons out of Sean May (35 games), Walter Herrman (48 games), and Primoz Brezec (58 games). So will healthy campaigns by those three, coupled with the acquisition of Jason Richardson to start at the 2, lead to the Bobcats having a .500 record next year? On paper it seems to be almost a certainty. Consider; how many teams in the East can boast a frontcourt that rolls six deep (Okafor, Brezec, Wallace, Herrman, May, Morrison) like the Bobcats? Not many. The trouble of course for the Bobcats has been that their backcourt in recent years has been underwhelming in comparison to their young and talented forwards. The Jason Richardson trade along with the re-signing of Matt Carroll will go a long way in righting this imbalance. The only glaring weakness on the roster is at PG, where Ray Felton has looked promising but will no longer have Brevin Knight around to help carry the load. So will Richardson and a healthy stable of forwards put the Bobcats in the playoffs? The answer is only maybe at this juncture, only because a .500 record may not be an automatic ticket into the Eastern playoffs next year. The two bottom playoff teams (Orlando and Washington) should be improved next season, and the Knicks also appear to be poised to make a postseason push with the acquisition of Zach Randolph. That being said, the Bobcats will certainly be in the mix for the final playoff spots.


What About Adam Morrison?: This is the question that I find truly interesting with the Bobcats. Just last season they invested the #3 overall pick in Morrison, with the general assumption that he would ascend to the lead role on the team when Wallace left this Summer. A funny thing happened on the way to Morrison being the next Larry Bird however, as he completely laid an egg last season (366th in PER) and the Bobcats re-signed Wallace. And Carroll. And they traded for Jason Richardson. And they drafted another 1st Round SF in Jared Dudley. If you judge the Bobcats thought process solely based on their transactions this offseason the conclusion is obvious; they are moving on from Morrison after just one season. Remember, Michael Jordan has soured quickly on top draft picks before. (See: Brown, Kwame) Now Morrison will have two $10 million a year swing players in front of him, a backup SG signed to a 6 year deal, and a brand new first rounder to battle him for the backup minutes at SF. The only real question left with Morrison is whether or not the Bobcats will even bother to pick up the final three years on his contract after next season.

Start Your Engines

Today is the first day that NBA free agents can officially sign new contracts. So other than a few deals we already know about being made official, what other storylines are there to follow in the next few days? Here is a look at the current status of some of the top remaining free agents:


Gerald Wallace: Most speculation has Wallace re-signing with Charlotte for a 6 year deal worth in the neighborhood of $60 million. There are persistent rumblings however, that Dallas still has a strong interest in Wallace. The Mavericks have been mentioned in the Wallace discussion ever since free agency began, and for the life of me I can't understand why they are interested. Don't they already have a young and athletic small forward in Josh Howard? Why would Dallas want to bring in another $10 million a year guy just to back him up? Even beyond that however, for Dallas to sign Wallace it would require a sign and trade deal with Charlotte. All signs seem to point to Wallace taking the easy route and taking the long term deal from the Bobcats. The second order effects of that signing would be very interesting to observe in Charlotte, mainly in regards to the future of Adam Morrison. The team just recently brought in Jason Richardson via a trade (signed for the next four years), re-signed SG Matt Carrol to a six year contract, drafted SF Jared Dudley with their 1st Round pick, and are close to re-signing Wallace. What kind of message do those signings send to Morrison after a lackluster rookie campaign? It would seem to me that management might be saying none too subtly that they are ready to cut their losses with Morrison.


Where Does Mo Go?: After Chancey Billups and the Pistons agreed to terms on contract extension Mo Williams suddenly found himself as the best point guard available in free agency. As luck would have it though, three of his potential destinations have dried up; the Lakers took Javaris Crittenton in the draft and then signed Derek Fisher, the Grizzlies took Mike Conley, and the Hawks selected Acie Law. Those moves essentially leave Williams with only two options, one being re-signing with the Bucks to the tune of about $8 million a year, or taking less money to go to the Miami Heat. What his choice essentially boils down to is whether or not he wants to compete for a championship now, which would require taking less money, or if he is willing to stay with Milwaukee through their rebuilding process.


Rashard Lewis is Stinkin Rich: It has just been reported that the Magic and Sonics have agreed upon a sign and trade deal for Rashard Lewis, with Orlando sending Seattle a second round pick. This move will allow Orlando to sign Lewis to a six year deal worth $127.2 million. Lewis will make $25.6 million in the final year of the contract. Read that last sentence again, and then try and tell me this deal is not going to be a disaster for the Magic, especially since it means that they won't have enough money to re-sign Darko Milicic which happens to complicate another situation...


Memphis Wants Your Big Man: One of the more interesting and and least talked about subplots in free agency is the Grizzlies mission to acquire a big man to pair with Pau Gasol. Going into the draft the Grizzlies had two glaring holes in their roster at point guard and power forward, and they wisely chose to address the point guard issue in the draft considering the previously discussed lack of quality point guards on the free agent market. The free agent crop at power forward however, is much more promising. Initially the Grizzlies were rumored to be after Chicago's Andres Nocioni, but the Bulls and Nocioni have since agreed to an extension. That leaves Anderson Varejao and now Darko as the Grizzlies' two main targets. Varejao is a restricted free agent and the Cavs have been saying all along that they will match any offer. So assuming that Memphis does not vastly overpay Varejao in order to dissauade Cleveland (which is in luxury tax territory) from matching the deal, that leaves Memphis with Darko.

NBA Draft: Trade Breakdown

Heading into the NBA Draft last night the media had prepared America for a night full of big name players being traded, and that is exactly what happened. The twist though, was that the three big name players that changed teams last night were not Shawn Marion, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal. Instead Ray Allen, Zach Randolph, and Jason Richardson were sent packing. Here is a look at each of the three big deals and how they work out for each of the teams involved:

Trade#1
Seatle Receives: Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and the #5 pick, Jeff Green
Boston Receives: Ray Allen and the #35 pick, Glen Davis
What Gives?: From Seattle's perspective this trade means one thing; Sam Presti and Sonics management want Rashard Lewis more than they want Ray Allen. The trade of Allen opens the door for Lewis to sign with the Sonics during free agency, and with new weapons Kevin Durant and Jeff Green Seattle could be downright fearsome in the next few seasons. Green would be the perfect complement to Durant and Lewis, as he is a player that can make a big impact on the game without taking shots. Green's top notch passing skills will allow Durant and Lewis to quite possibly become the most potent scoring duo in the NBA. I don't really like this trade as much for Boston. The Celtics have already tried pairing Paul Pierce with a high scoring shooter in Antoine Walker, and that duo was never able to get Boston over the hump. I would be afraid that adding Allen's shots to Pierce's might stunt the progress of Al Jefferson, especially since the Celtics had to give up Delonte West who might have been able to keep Jefferson involved in the offense in spite of the 40 shots a night that the Celtics' two stars will require. I thing if Ainge had stayed at #5 and picked a post player to compliment Jefferson (Yi Jianlian? Brandan Wright?) the Celtics would have been much better off in the long run.

Trade #2
Portland Receives: Steve Francis and Channing Frye
New York Receives:Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, and Fred Jones
What Gives?: From a pure player value perspective Portland got killed in this trade. The benefits of this move for Portland are not in the actual players received however, as the key word for them in this trade is flexibility. Everyone on the planet knew that with Greg Oden coming to town to join LaMarcus Aldridge in the Blazers' frontcourt that Randolph and the four years remaining on his contract were going to be heading out of Portland. Letting go of Randolph in and of itself will free the Blazers' two newest big men to get the appropriate amount of playing time to develop. The deal also grants Portland a great amount of salary cap flexibility as Steve Francis' contract has only two years remaining as compared to the four remaining on Randolph's. The summer that Francis' contract expires coincides with the expiration of Raef LaFrentz's contract, meaning that the Blazers will clear $30 million of contracts off the books after the 2009-2010 season. That kind of cap room is going to give the Blazers the ability to bring in pretty much any free agent they could desire. Who wouldn't want the chance to play with Oden? And as an added bonus, Channing Frye is a great third man for Portland's frontcourt rotation. From the Knick's perspective this trade is fantastic. Pairing Randolph with Eddy Curry? In the East? For only the price of Channing Frye and Steve Francis' terrible contract? Wow. I have not liked a lot of the moves made by Isaiah Thomas in the past, but this one certainly looks like a winner. Curry and Randolph automatically become the most feared frontcourt duo in the East, hands down. Not only that, they are both young and signed through the next four years. This move just might be the one that finally turns the Knicks around. Dickau and Jones are each in the final years of their contracts, so they are essentially throwaways in this trade.

UPDATE: Are the Blazers going after Shawn Marion now? Check here for the latest.

Trade #3
Charlotte Receives: Jason Richardson and the #36 pick, Jermareo Davidson
Golden State Receives: The #8 pick, Brandan Wright
What Gives?: Chris Mullin may not have often gotten the best of Michael Jordan during their playing days, but Mullin completely ate Jordan's lunch on this deal. Let me put it this way; if Golden State could have dumped Richardson in exchange for a 2nd rounder this still would have been a good deal in a lot of ways. Richardson was not performing to the value of his contract, which has 4 years and over $50 million remaining on it. That is certainly not the kind of money you want to pay to a player that just finished a season where he only averaged 16 points per game. Getting rid of Richardson also shows a commitment by the Warriors to Monta Ellis, who will now have an opportunity to show that his breakout season of last year was no fluke. Without Richardson on board the Warriors will also likely be able to re-sign Matt Barnes. So Golden State in one swift move was able to ditch an overpaid player, give an emerging star a bigger role on their team, and give themselves the ability to keep one of their key role players. Oh, and there is also the fact that they also received a prospect that many people had rated as being perhaps the third best prospect in the entire draft in Brandan Wright, a lanky and athletic power forward that will fit perfectly into their system. Are you kidding me? This trade is a massacre of the highest order. Michael Jordan just needs to hang it up as a GM; as an executive he is as dangerous to his own team as he was to his opponents as a player.

What The Lakers Need

Now that Kobe has made it painfully obvious that he wants out of Los Angeles, all eyes are turned toward Mitch Kupchak to see if he can swing a deal. The problem being of course, that trading Kobe is not as simple a process as it may at first seem. For starters, Kobe has a trade kicker in the neighborhood of $13 million that any new club would have to pick up, and Kobe also holds a no trade clause. Rumor has it that Kobe is aiming for one of four destinations, Phoenix, Chicago, New York, or staying in L.A. with the Clippers. In looking at those four destinations, it is obvious that the Lakers would not make a deal to either Phoenix or L.A. since they would never help out an intra-conferenence rival, much less an intra-city one. This leaves Chicago and New York, neither of which is realistic without massive help from a third or even fourth team. New York is a complete pipe dream, since their best offer would be something along the lines of Jared Jeffries, Channing Frye, Jamal Crawford, and future draft picks. Not exactly the kind of return the Lakers would be looking for in such a deal. Chicago certainly has enough talent, but their current contract situation, in that most of their young talent is still on their relatively low rookie contracts, would mean that in order to get Kobe the Bulls would have to offer something along the lines of Tyrus Thomas, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, and Thabo Sefolosha. While the Lakers would love such a deal, the Bulls would never make such and offer.

So, what would the Lakers be looking for in a trade, and who can give it to them? The Lakers' greatest need as a team is at the point, so any Kobe deal would have to involve a point guard of some flavor, especially since Acie Law and Javaris Crittenton will likely be off the board b the time the Lakers draft at #19. Secondly, if Kobe is headed out of town the Lakers would need a wing player of at least near All-Star caliber to compensate for the loss of Kobe in the lineup. The third piece that would be required would be a high draft pick, most likely to be used by the Lakers to add an elite young frontcourt prospect to ply alongside Andrew Bynum. Now lets limit the scope to the Eastern Conference, as the Lakers showed a few years back in the Shaq trade that they are unlikely to trade a star within their own conference. So which teams in the East would be able to put all three pieces of the puzzle together, and make the salaries match? There are indeed three teams that could make such a deal.

Boston Celtics
Package: Paul Pierce, Delonte West, #5 pick
Analysis: This package would give Kobe a chance to play in a fairly large market and for a historic franchise, as well as the chance to play with some great young talent with the likes of Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Gerald Green, and Rajon Rando. Jefferson would of course be the main draw for Kobe, as a Bryant-Jefferson duo would automatically vault the Celtics into the top 4 in the East. From the Lakers perspective, West would be an automatic upgrade over Smush Parker, and Pierce would slide into Kobe's spot in the starting five. The #5 pick would also likely garner Yi Jianlian, a prospect that the Lakers are allegedly very high on.

New Jersey Nets
Package:Vince Carter (sign and trade), Marcus Williams, #17 pick, 2008 First and Second Round picks
Analysis: Going to the Nets would again give Kobe a chance to play in a large media market, as well as the opportunity to play alongside Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. That trio would all likely be All Stars in the East, and would give the Nets a two to three year window where they would likely be favored to win the East every year. For the Lakers, Carter would slip into Kobe's role and Williams would split time with Jordan Farmar at the point. The #17 pick could garner a frontcourt prospect along the lines of Josh McRoberts, Tiago Splitter, or Jason Smith. This trade would probably be the least attractive of the three from the Lakers perspective.

Charlotte Bobcats
Package: Gerald Wallace (sign and trade), Raymond Felton, #8 pick
Analysis: This trade would be excellent for both sides. Kobe would step into a starting five including Brevin Knight, Adam Morrison, Emeka Okafor, and then a Sean May and Primoz Brezec rotation. The talent is there in Charlotte, and with Kobe being added to a team that has been improving steadily each year the future would be very bright for the Bobcats. From L.A.'s perspective, they would have the chance to sign the 24 year old Wallace to a long term deal. Since Wallace played in Charlotte with little attention paid to him, many people are not aware that he is essentially Shawn Marion Lite. Wallace is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and has been steadily improving his offensive game, shooting over 50% the past two seasons. Felton could step right in as the starting point guard, and the #8 pick would likely garner Joakim Noah to pair with Andrew Bynum in the post. Maybe it is just me, but a young core of Wallace, Bynum, Felton, and Noah (all currently 24 years old or less) would put the Lakers in fantastic shape for the future.

(Photo Credit: Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images)