What Happens To Zach?

Leading up to the NBA Draft there are All-Star caliber players whose futures will be signifigantly altered depending upon who their teams select. If the draft goes according to plan and Portland takes Greg Oden and Seattle takes Kevin Durant, than both Rashard Lewis and Zach Randolph will likely leave their respective teams. In Lewis' case he will just merely choose not to sign with the Sonics, but Randolph is in a much more complicated situation. There is no way that the Blazers can afford to keep Randolph and his $13+ million salary if they draft a center with a top two pick for the second consecutive year. (Portland picked LaMarcus Aldridge #2 overall last year) With both Oden and Aldridge, along with Raef LaFrentz and Joel Pryzbilla as well, Randolph will need to be moved to a different team. The question then is, where? And for who?

The "who" aspect of the equation is fairly simple. The Blazers are in desperate need of a SF. They started journeyman Ime Udoka last year, and Darius Miles is likely a non-factor after missing all of last season with microfracture surgery. Therefore the obvious move would be to ship Randolph to a team that 1.) Needs a scorer in the low post and 2.) has a dispensable SF. The following scenarios would fit those criteria:

Scenario #1
Portland Receives: Ron Artest and John Salmons
Sacramento Receives: Zach Randolph

In this scenario the Blazers would essentially be taking a one year loan out on Artest, as he has a player option he would likely decline after next season. Salmons however, would be the real catch of the deal. Salmons is signed through the next four seasons at base salaries ranging from $4.7 million to $5.8 million which would make him a very affordable starter while Portland's young core of Roy, Aldridge, and Durant developed. On Sacramento's end the Kings would rid themselves of Artest while gaining some sorely needed rebounding and inside scoring. The Kings ranked 30th in rebounding this past season, and Randolph would certainly go a long way in improving that ranking.

Scenario #2
Portland Receives: Andrei Kirilenko
Utah Receives: Vince Carter (sign and trade)
New Jersey Receives: Zach Randolph and Gordan Giricek

This three way deal would fill large voids for all of the teams involved. Utah has not had a solid SG in ages, and Carter would give them an elite scorer that could generate offense when the Utah offense stalls. Paul Milsap would then likely move into Kirilenko's former starting position. For New Jersey it would provide them the inside scoring threat they have been missing since Kenyon Martin left town and would also allow them to go after a SG prospect such as Rodney Stuckey or Morris Almond in the draft. From the Blazer's perspective Kirilenko would be the perfect SF for them, a player that does not need to score in order to make a big impact on the game. The trio of Oden, Aldridge, and Kirilenko would automatically become the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA.

Scenario #3
Portland Receives: Shawn Marion
Phoenix Receives: Vince Carter (sign and trade)
New Jersey Receives: Zach Randolph and Dan Dickau

The logic here would be the same for the Nets, and for the Suns this deal would alleviate the locker room tension between Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire while still being able to bring in equal value in return. Carter could slide to the 3 for the Suns with Boris Diaw then starting at the 4 spot. For Portland, Marion would give them the best chance at making an early splash in the West while Roy, Aldridge, and Oden are still on their rookie contracts.

AK-47...C U L8ER?

Andrei Kirilenko has always been a bit of an odd case. He is 6-9 and Kate Moss thin, but has exhibited the ability over his career to be a good rebounder from the 4 spot as well as possessing elite level shot blocking ability. The problem obviously, is that Kirilenko has the size of a SF and the game of a PF. This did not really present much of a problem early in Kirilenko's Jazz tenure, as there was no threat to his playing time at the 4 spot. Times have changed in Salt Lake however, and the Jazz are suddenly full up on (healthy) PFs. Between Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Paul Milsap, Kirilenko would seem to have little shot to return the the 4 spot anytime soon for the Jazz. This puts the Jazz in the position of having their highest paid player (Yup, Kirilenko makes more than Boozer) playing out of position and experiencing an extreme decline in performance. As Kirilenko himself has said, this season has been "the worst season in my career, individually". To compare:

2005: MPG:32.9 PPG:15.6 RPG:6.2 AST:3.2 BLK:3.3 STL:1.6

2006: MPG:37.8 PPG:15.3 RPG:8.0 AST:4.3 BLK:3.2 STL:1.5

2007: MPG:29.3 PPG:8.3 RPG:4.7 AST:2.9 BLK:2.1 STL:1.1

Kirilenko is caught in a tough spot. The emergence of Boozer as a premier offensive threat combined with the increased tendency by Deron Williams to take his own shots just does not leave many shots left over for Kirilenko in Jerry Sloan's deliberate offense. I mean, imagine if Shawn Marion with his similar size and skill set were in the Jazz rotation. It probably would not be a much rosier picture. The alarming thing about the Kirilenko situation however, is that he seems to be growing increasingly unhappy with his situation in Utah. Compare his comments from an interview last week in the Salt Lake Tribune with a quote from last night:

"Right now, I'm kind of relaxed, and I made my point. . . . I've re-changed my mind a little bit, adjusted a little bit to different things right now. Especially, we've made the playoffs and right now we have tough stretch to get back [home-court advantage] and I don't like to be negative. I want to be positive." (4-15-07)

"I want to play 48 minutes,I want to play and I want to be on the court. All I can provide is effort, no matter how many minutes I'm going to play. . . . I wouldn't say I did great, but I did something. It's just hard to explain because it's been whole year." (4-22-07)

Kirilenko was primarily reacting to the quick hook he got from Jerry Sloan after he went 1-3 from the field and 0-2 from the foul line. Sloan's reaction to Kirilenko's comments was equally ominous:

"I know it's very uncomfortable for him. It's very uncomfortable for me, I'm not happy with it, but I don't know how to handle it. I'm not equipped."

Jerry Sloan is "not equipped" to handle this situation? Yikes. If you have a coach that has been around for 22 seasons saying he can't handle a situation, and your highest payed player is literally in tears after a playoff game, you are in what most people would call a bad situation. And the situation is not going to get any better for Kirilenko. The Jazz have Boozer and Okur under contract for the next three years and Milsap for the next two, and Matt Harpring who has been playing almost an equal amount of minutes at SF as Kirilenko is also signed for the next three years. Kirilenko is under contract for the next four years on a max deal that will be paying him $17,822,187 by the 2010-2011 season. Not many teams would want to pay a guy playing out of position and averaging 8-5-3 $17 million, so it seems that the Jazz are going to have to find something to do with AK-47. This past season has likely sent Kirilenko's stock through the floor, so finding a taker to absorb the four years left on his contract will most likely not be an easy task. The Jazz may well find themselves saddled with a $63 million salary cap albatross for the next four seasons.

Update: Kirilenko had another poor showing in Game 2 of the series tonight, only playing 18 minutes while being called for 5 fouls. Andrei's final stat line: 0 PTS, 0 AST, 3 REB, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 2 TO, 0-3 FGM-FGA