Top 10, Domingo

AK-47...C U L8ER?

Andrei Kirilenko has always been a bit of an odd case. He is 6-9 and Kate Moss thin, but has exhibited the ability over his career to be a good rebounder from the 4 spot as well as possessing elite level shot blocking ability. The problem obviously, is that Kirilenko has the size of a SF and the game of a PF. This did not really present much of a problem early in Kirilenko's Jazz tenure, as there was no threat to his playing time at the 4 spot. Times have changed in Salt Lake however, and the Jazz are suddenly full up on (healthy) PFs. Between Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Paul Milsap, Kirilenko would seem to have little shot to return the the 4 spot anytime soon for the Jazz. This puts the Jazz in the position of having their highest paid player (Yup, Kirilenko makes more than Boozer) playing out of position and experiencing an extreme decline in performance. As Kirilenko himself has said, this season has been "the worst season in my career, individually". To compare:

2005: MPG:32.9 PPG:15.6 RPG:6.2 AST:3.2 BLK:3.3 STL:1.6

2006: MPG:37.8 PPG:15.3 RPG:8.0 AST:4.3 BLK:3.2 STL:1.5

2007: MPG:29.3 PPG:8.3 RPG:4.7 AST:2.9 BLK:2.1 STL:1.1

Kirilenko is caught in a tough spot. The emergence of Boozer as a premier offensive threat combined with the increased tendency by Deron Williams to take his own shots just does not leave many shots left over for Kirilenko in Jerry Sloan's deliberate offense. I mean, imagine if Shawn Marion with his similar size and skill set were in the Jazz rotation. It probably would not be a much rosier picture. The alarming thing about the Kirilenko situation however, is that he seems to be growing increasingly unhappy with his situation in Utah. Compare his comments from an interview last week in the Salt Lake Tribune with a quote from last night:

"Right now, I'm kind of relaxed, and I made my point. . . . I've re-changed my mind a little bit, adjusted a little bit to different things right now. Especially, we've made the playoffs and right now we have tough stretch to get back [home-court advantage] and I don't like to be negative. I want to be positive." (4-15-07)

"I want to play 48 minutes,I want to play and I want to be on the court. All I can provide is effort, no matter how many minutes I'm going to play. . . . I wouldn't say I did great, but I did something. It's just hard to explain because it's been whole year." (4-22-07)

Kirilenko was primarily reacting to the quick hook he got from Jerry Sloan after he went 1-3 from the field and 0-2 from the foul line. Sloan's reaction to Kirilenko's comments was equally ominous:

"I know it's very uncomfortable for him. It's very uncomfortable for me, I'm not happy with it, but I don't know how to handle it. I'm not equipped."

Jerry Sloan is "not equipped" to handle this situation? Yikes. If you have a coach that has been around for 22 seasons saying he can't handle a situation, and your highest payed player is literally in tears after a playoff game, you are in what most people would call a bad situation. And the situation is not going to get any better for Kirilenko. The Jazz have Boozer and Okur under contract for the next three years and Milsap for the next two, and Matt Harpring who has been playing almost an equal amount of minutes at SF as Kirilenko is also signed for the next three years. Kirilenko is under contract for the next four years on a max deal that will be paying him $17,822,187 by the 2010-2011 season. Not many teams would want to pay a guy playing out of position and averaging 8-5-3 $17 million, so it seems that the Jazz are going to have to find something to do with AK-47. This past season has likely sent Kirilenko's stock through the floor, so finding a taker to absorb the four years left on his contract will most likely not be an easy task. The Jazz may well find themselves saddled with a $63 million salary cap albatross for the next four seasons.

Update: Kirilenko had another poor showing in Game 2 of the series tonight, only playing 18 minutes while being called for 5 fouls. Andrei's final stat line: 0 PTS, 0 AST, 3 REB, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 2 TO, 0-3 FGM-FGA

Clean Game or Payback? You Be the Judge

Remember Tim Duncan making the comment last week that he hoped that the Spurs would get "a fair shake" from the refs in the playoffs? Well, in the wake of the Spurs' Game 1 loss to the Nuggets, it would seem that the Spurs are going to get less of a fair shake and more of a pimp slap from the refs in the wake of the Joey Crawford incident. Consider:

-The Spurs averaged 24.1 FTA per game during the regular season.
-In Game 1, the Spurs shot only 10 FTs, including only 6 in the first 44 minutes of the contest
-The Spurs lowest number of FTAs during the regular season: 11
-The Spurs' opponents averaged 21.2 PFs during the regular season
-In Game 1, the Nuggets were called for 13 PFs
-In the two team's three regular season games the Spurs had 21,21, and 27 FTA respectively, and the Nuggets were called for 21,19, and 24 PFs respectively.

Now, this could be a one game abberation. That kind of thing happens. The playoffs are more physical than the regular season. Understood. I can't help but think there might just be a little something fishy though, when a team shoots fewer FTs than they did in any of the previous 82 games, in the wake of a high profile confrontation with a ref that might have resulted in that ref working his last NBA game. I'm just saying: beware the brotherhood of the whistle.

Before the Lights Go Out: Playoff Implications

So heading into the final night of the NBA regular season there is only one playoff ticket up for grabs, with the Warriors and the Clippers both still alive to get into the Western Conference playoff bracket. There is a lot more drama left however, as playoff seeding is up for grabs all across the league. Here is a quick look at what is at stake tonight:

-The Last Western Spot: This one is pretty simple. If the Warriors win against Portland, they are in. If the Clippers lose to the Hornets then the Warriors are in. The only way for the Clippers to get in is to win and hope the Warriors lose. Fin.

-Who is 8th?: Seemingly overlooked is the fact that although the Warriors have not clinched the 8th spot in the West yet, they are also still alive for the 7th spot in the West. The Warriors enter the night with the same record as the Lakers. The Lakers possess the tiebreaker if both teams win tonight, but if the Warriors win and the Lakers lose to Sacramento, then the Warriors would move into the 7 spot to make the most exciting first round matchup in recent NBA playoff history. What would you put the over under on points for a game between the Warriors and Suns? 240? 250?

- The Battle for #2 in the East: Cleveland and Chicago enter the night with identical 49-32 records, with Chicago holding the tie-breaker. The truly interesting angle of this battle is that whichever team loses out on the 2 seed will drop all the way to the 5th seed, since Toronto and Miami hold the 3 and 4 spots as division winners. Cleveland faces the Bucks at home, while the Bulls travel to New Jersey to face the Nets. Whichever team comes out in the 5th spot will face a resurgent Miami team getting D-Wade back, while the fate of the 2 seed is a bit murkier because.....

- The 6 spot in the East is up for grabs: The Nets and Wizards come into the final night of the season with 40-41 records, with the Nets sitting in 6th with the tiebreaker. Washington goes to Indiana tonight with the Nets facing the Bulls at home. God knows the Bulls/Cavs would much rather face the depleted Wizards in the 7 spot and not the Nets. (The Magic also have an outside shot at the 7 spot with Nets and Wizards losses combined with a Magic win)

The end result of who gets the 2 seed in the East will have a great implication on the Eastern playoff bracket as a whole, as the 2 seed would likely face the Wizards and Raptors on their path to the conference finals, whereas the 5 seed would face the Heat and Pistons. Point being: the 2 seed will go to the conference finals, the 5 seed will be lucky to get out of the first round.