A Lesson Easily Forgotten

In the weeks leading up to the NBA Draft debates raged about which top prospect the Portland Trailblazers should've selected with the first overall pick. Oden or Durant. Center or swingman. Scoring or defense. It was a debate that was philosophical at its core. What is more important in basketball? A dominant scorer or a dominant defender? Does the age old axiom, "Defense wins championships" really hold true? Should the NBA game resemble the Suns or the Spurs? In the end the Blazers seemed to settle the issue, opting for the stalwart post player Oden over the scoring dynamo Durant.

It seems however, that in spite of the widely lauded choice by the Blazers to take Oden the NBA as a whole is not neccessarily backing that choice's logic with their actions in free agency. How so you might ask? Just listen. Who is the most talked about free agent this year? Rashard Lewis. Lewis is a fantastic offensive talent. Simply put, there are very few basketball players on this earth that are 6-10 and can shoot the ball the way that he does. Whenever Lewis steps foot on the court he is an instant matchup problem for the opposing defense. The trade-off in Lewis' case however, is that his defensive game, or lack thereof, also creates an instant mismatch when the Sonics are on defense. Lewis' defense is so bad that after the 2005-2006 season John Hollinger described it thusly:

"The Sonics were the worst defensive team of all time, and Lewis was a big reason why. He has never been the most interested defender, but like a lot of teammates he suffered a noticeable drop in intensity last season. While Seattle had myriad problems and Lewis was only a part of them, it's simply shocking to look at his defensive numbers from a year ago.

As bad as the Sonics were defensively, they were worse with Lewis on the floor. A LOT worse. Seattle gave up 6.6 points per 100 possessions more when Lewis played -- and keep in mind, his replacement most times was Vladimir Radmanovic, who won't be appearing on an All-Defense team any time soon. Additionally, Lewis' man was doing most of the damage -- he surrendered an 18.6 opponent PER from the small forward spot, and a staggering 23.5 at power forward."

This isn't to say that Rashard Lewis is a bad player. That just wouldn't be true. What is shocking about the Lewis situation is not that he is a desireable free agent; it is that he is the most desireable free agent of this entire class, even though there is another free agent at Lewis' very own position who is younger, cheaper, and an elite defender. Where is the love for Gerald Wallace? If defense wins championships, don't you want one of the three players in NBA history to average at least 2 blocks and 2 steals in an NBA season on your team? (The other two were David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon by the way) Alas, despite his defensive prowess Wallace is likely to either re-sign with Charlotte or go to the runner up in the Rashard Lewis sweepstakes. I will guarantee you this though; the team that gets Wallace will be much better off than the team that gets Lewis. I mean for goodness sakes, Wallace is only 24 years old. An elite defender in his prime is on the market and all everyone can talk about is a 6-10 jump shooter that is too slow to defend on the perimeter and too weak to defend on the block? Obviously people did not read the memo about Oden, or see the Spurs win the title on the strength of a suffocating defense.

It isn't just isolated to the Lewis/Wallace situation either. Take a look out West in the Arizona dessert. The Suns are pressed up against the lottery tax, and are trying to deal Shawn Marion to get cap relief. That's right, Shawn Marion, the man who is arguably the best defensive player in basketball. The Matrix is a defensive freak, and like Wallace also has a pretty good offensive game to go with his lockdown D. So why on earth would the Suns be looking to get rid of him? To guard Amare Stoudemire of course. Amare, who only scored 3 more points per game than Marion even though Marion scored the vast majority of his points in transition and on broken plays. Amare is sexy though, Marion is not.

You know who else is being ignored in free agency right now? A former All-Star center, Jamaal Magloire. Right now rumor has it that he is being looked at for mid level exception money by a few teams. They should pull the trigger. And they should play him. Again, Magloire does not play a sexy game. He is a big man that gets position down low on offense and defense and is hard to move. He is still one of the best defensive rebounders in the game. Yet nobody seems to be making a serious play at him. Last year his own team didn't even give him a serious look, as Magloire found himself behind both Joel Pryzbilla and LaMarcus Aldridge in Portland. Do you want to know what happened when Magloire did get some serious PT though? In the 12 games last year where he played at least 30 minutes last year Magloire averaged 11.4 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks. Yet, you don't hear a peep about this center that could be a double double machine somewhere if he got the playing time. Because he isn't sexy. He doesn't run the floor or shoot three pointers. He just plays a tough defensive game and puts the ball in the hoop effectively on offense. It really is too bad that a league that seemed so close to understanding what winning basketball is all about with the Oden pick is ignoring it so quickly. Some teams do get it though, and those teams will be the ones that sign up Gerald Wallace, trade for Shawn Marion, and snap up Magloire for the mid level exception. And those teams will be winners.

Blazers Going For Marion?

I am going to preface this by noting that this entire situation is very fluid right now. There are a number of rumors circulating at present about the Portland Trailblazers and a possible move they might be making for a small forward. Over at True Hoop Henry Abbott has posted this rather cryptic blurb:

Pritchard's "cap expert," assistant GM Tom Penn, adds that "we have to formally complete the New York trade before we can finish another trade that we hope will happen." Penn estimates that will take a week to ten days for all this to be announced.

Later in the same press conference, someone asks about the teams's decision to draft Rudy Fernandez, and Pritchard says "that's part of the thing I'm not supposed to talk about, so I apologize for maybe letting it out a little bit."

I'm no expert on the collective bargaining agreement, but I'm guessing that this means something has to happen with Channing Frye (moving on?) or Steve Francis (being bought out?) before Rudy Fernandez can be shipped (with Frye, Pryzbilla, Jack, Koponen ... who knows?) somewhere for a small forward.

This actually makes a lot of sense. The Blazers made a ton of moves last night, and it seems like they have about 20 players on their roster right now. It would be logical that they are hording all these players in an attempt to swing a big trade. It also makes sense that such a trade would be aimed at a small forward, since that position is a glaring hole in the Blazers lineup right now. (They started Ime Udoka all last season and Darius Miles is essentially done) So who is the mystery small forward the Blazers are looking to get? None other than Shawn Marion according to Blazers Edge:

New York had agreed to a buyout with Francis. The buyout has Francis giving up his player option and taking about 10-15 million. Francis keeps the money, becomes a free agent, and may sign with another team. The buyout is transferable to Portland, meaning that if Francis signs with another team for the mid-level exception (5 million), the Blazers would only have 7.5 - 12.5 million count against the cap for this year, and nothing for next year. Letting Freddie and Dan expire this year would only have saved us 6.1 million. This way we eat the buyout and dump Zach's ridiculous contract. Francis will never wear a Blazer uni...

... the Blazers are targeting Shawn Marion. In this case, Francis is traded, with the exception, cash, and probably another cheap piece such as Webster or Jack, for Marion. By gaining the Francis buyout and dumping Marion, the Suns gain a ton of cap space, and Francis is a Blazer for about 10 days.

All I can say is, the Blazers would be completely nasty if this were to go down. Think about it, you would be talking about a starting lineup of Jack, Roy, Marion, Aldridge, and Oden. Good grief. If Kevin Pritchard pulls this off he will officially replace Bryan Colangelo as my favorite GM.

What Happens To Zach?

Leading up to the NBA Draft there are All-Star caliber players whose futures will be signifigantly altered depending upon who their teams select. If the draft goes according to plan and Portland takes Greg Oden and Seattle takes Kevin Durant, than both Rashard Lewis and Zach Randolph will likely leave their respective teams. In Lewis' case he will just merely choose not to sign with the Sonics, but Randolph is in a much more complicated situation. There is no way that the Blazers can afford to keep Randolph and his $13+ million salary if they draft a center with a top two pick for the second consecutive year. (Portland picked LaMarcus Aldridge #2 overall last year) With both Oden and Aldridge, along with Raef LaFrentz and Joel Pryzbilla as well, Randolph will need to be moved to a different team. The question then is, where? And for who?

The "who" aspect of the equation is fairly simple. The Blazers are in desperate need of a SF. They started journeyman Ime Udoka last year, and Darius Miles is likely a non-factor after missing all of last season with microfracture surgery. Therefore the obvious move would be to ship Randolph to a team that 1.) Needs a scorer in the low post and 2.) has a dispensable SF. The following scenarios would fit those criteria:

Scenario #1
Portland Receives: Ron Artest and John Salmons
Sacramento Receives: Zach Randolph

In this scenario the Blazers would essentially be taking a one year loan out on Artest, as he has a player option he would likely decline after next season. Salmons however, would be the real catch of the deal. Salmons is signed through the next four seasons at base salaries ranging from $4.7 million to $5.8 million which would make him a very affordable starter while Portland's young core of Roy, Aldridge, and Durant developed. On Sacramento's end the Kings would rid themselves of Artest while gaining some sorely needed rebounding and inside scoring. The Kings ranked 30th in rebounding this past season, and Randolph would certainly go a long way in improving that ranking.

Scenario #2
Portland Receives: Andrei Kirilenko
Utah Receives: Vince Carter (sign and trade)
New Jersey Receives: Zach Randolph and Gordan Giricek

This three way deal would fill large voids for all of the teams involved. Utah has not had a solid SG in ages, and Carter would give them an elite scorer that could generate offense when the Utah offense stalls. Paul Milsap would then likely move into Kirilenko's former starting position. For New Jersey it would provide them the inside scoring threat they have been missing since Kenyon Martin left town and would also allow them to go after a SG prospect such as Rodney Stuckey or Morris Almond in the draft. From the Blazer's perspective Kirilenko would be the perfect SF for them, a player that does not need to score in order to make a big impact on the game. The trio of Oden, Aldridge, and Kirilenko would automatically become the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA.

Scenario #3
Portland Receives: Shawn Marion
Phoenix Receives: Vince Carter (sign and trade)
New Jersey Receives: Zach Randolph and Dan Dickau

The logic here would be the same for the Nets, and for the Suns this deal would alleviate the locker room tension between Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire while still being able to bring in equal value in return. Carter could slide to the 3 for the Suns with Boris Diaw then starting at the 4 spot. For Portland, Marion would give them the best chance at making an early splash in the West while Roy, Aldridge, and Oden are still on their rookie contracts.