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Showing posts with label The G(m) Spot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The G(m) Spot. Show all posts

Monday, July 2, 2007

The G(m) Spot: Magic Sign Lewis


The Deal: Barring a sign and trade, the deal will be a max contract worth roughly $75 million over five years.

For the Magic: To put it bluntly, this is huge for the Magic. Last season Hedo Turkoglu was their starting SF, and to replace him in the starting lineup with an All-Star player makes the Magic an extremely dangerous team in the East. Lewis' perimeter touch and offensive arsenal will take a lot of pressure off of Dwight Howard down on the block, spreading the floor and giving Howard more room to operate. You thought Howard was nasty last season? Just wait and see what kind of havoc he is able to wreak now that teams won't be able to constantly double team him every time he touches the ball. The other shoe that is going to drop in this deal though is that the Magic will have to renounce the rights to Darko Milicic in order for the signing to work under the cap. Losing Darko leaves the Magic precariously thin in the frontcourt behind Howard, but that is obviously a risk they are willing to take in order to get Lewis on board. The Magic might be able to keep Milicic if they are able to convince Seattle to work a sign and trade for Lewis, creating enough space under the cap to retain the rights to Darko.


For the Sonics: I just can't believe that the Sonics thought there was any way that they were going to lose Lewis when they traded Ray Allen. Maybe I am wrong, but the Allen trade seemed to me like the Sonics were sending a message to Lewis that they wanted him to be the star to mentor Kevin Durant. Not to be too terribly harsh but the Sonics better pray to the Lord that Kevin Durant truly is the next great swing player sooner rather than later, otherwise they could be looking at a rough next two or three years. Looking at the Sonics roster, here is what they have; three centers that can be described as projects at best (Robert Swift, Saer Sene, and Johan Petro), three unproven point guards (Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson, and Delonte West), a couple of swing projects (Damien Wilkins and Mikael Gelabale), two decent forwards (Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox), Wally Szczerbiak, and two stud rookies who both happen to play the same position (Durant and Jeff Green). So to recap, no real point guard, no real center, and their four best players play either SF or PF. Eww.

Sunday, July 1, 2007

The G(m) Spot: Lakers Sign Walton


The Deal: Luke Walton agrees to a 6 year, $30 million contract with the Lakers.

For the Lakers: Although some may have questioned Mitch Kupchak's moves in the past, this deal was a complete no brainer for both sides. Walton was third on the Lakers last year in both points and assists, and his skill set is a perfect fit for Phil Jackson's triangle offense. The Lakers could not afford to lose his passing ability in the offense, especially considering the complete mess the team has at the point. For Walton this deal also makes a lot of sense, since it was unlikely that his talents would have been worth the full mid level exception from another team. Walton is now settled in as the Lakers' starter at SF for the foreseeable future, an important bit of stability for the Lakers in the midst of their tumultuous offseason.

The G(m) Spot: Raptors Sign Kapono

Free Agency = Love. Seriously, the free agent season in the NBA is one of my favorite times every year. So as the signings begin to roll in we'll examine them here in the G(m) Spot.


The Deal: Jason Kapono (formerly of the Heat) agrees to a 4 year, $24 million contract with the Toronto Raptors.

For the Raptors: The signing of Kapono could have number of ripple effects on the Raptors roster. Kapono provides the elite perimeter shooter that the Raptors have been missing, and his presence on the court will allow Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh a lot more space to operate down low. This signing along with the recent trade made by the Raptors for Carlos Delfino likely spells the end of Morris Peterson's tenure in Toronto. With Kapono and Delfino now on board joining Joey Graham, Jorge Garbajosa, and Anthony Parker at the swing spots there just don't seem to be enough minutes left to go around to justify Peterson staying with the team.

For the Heat: Although any team will miss a player that just finished a season where he shot 51% from behind the arc, the Heat's pick of Daequan Cook in the draft will certainly soften the blow. Cook can shoot, there is no questioning that fact. The most interesting effect that the loss of Kapono could have on the Heat's roster however, is that now Dorell Wright will have an opportunity to show if he was really worth a 1st round pick in 2004. Wright played about 20 MPG last season but should see that number go up to about 25-30 now that Kapono is headed out of town.

For Comparison: Lyle Overbay of the Toronto Blue Jays also signed a 4 year, $24 million contract in January.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

The Worst Contracts In The NBA

As we reach the end of the NBA season and look forward to an offseason full of free agency and trade possibilites, you might notice that some of the teams in the league won't be joining in on all the fun. So why do some teams have to stay out of the (talent) pool this summer? Simple: it is because of the guys below, the ugliest and most hampering contracts in the NBA. The contracts below are not exactly ranked on a direct pay to performance scale, but also take into account the impact upon the team and their present and future ability to improve.

(Note: Only contracts of two years or more were considered, as really bad one year deals are actually quite useful in the current NBA landscape as trade pieces.)

10. Bobby Simmons, Milwaukee Bucks
Contract Remaining:
3 years, $29.8 million
Analysis: Simmons is a classic example of a player parlaying one good season into a massive contract. After posting averages 16.4 points and 5.9 rebounds in his final season with the Clippers Simmons signed a long term deal with the Bucks. In his first year with Milwaukee Simmons saw his stats go down in PPG, RPG, AST, STL, and FG%. Then the real bad news came: Simmons missed the entirety of the 2006-2007 season due to two surgeries needed to repair his foot and ankle. In a show of how bad Simmons' contract is, his replacement, Charlie Bell, put up almost the exact same numbers the Simmons had in his one season in Milwaukee:

Simmons 2005-2006: 13.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.3 AST
Bell 2006-2007: 13.9 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.0 AST

The difference of course being that Bell only made $744,551 for the season. The Bucks now have a mediocre swingman coming off two surgeries making almost $10 million a season. Ewww. Even worse for Simmons, the Bucks are rumored to be looking at Corey Brewer and Jeff Green in the draft, who both play Simmon's position.


9. Troy Hudson and Marko Jaric, Minnesota Timberwolves
Contract Remaining:
Hudson: 3 years $18.9 million, Jaric: 4 years $27.3 million
Analysis: So have you ever wondered what happened to KG and the Wolves after his MVP season? Well, they let Latrell Spreewell and Sam Cassell go, and then used a ton of free agency dollars on these two stiffs. Jaric was signed after posting 6.6 AST in his final season with the Clippers, and Hudson was resigned after a big postseason in the Wolves' conference finals year. Since then? Jaric only started 17 games this past season, averaging 5.3 points and 2.1 assists per game. Hudson has only played a total of 70 games the past two seasons, and this year only averaged 5.9 points and 2.1 assists. The duo also figures to play even less in the coming years, as the emerging Randy Foye will consume their minutes, meaning that the Wolves will have two PGs sitting on their bench eating roughly $13 million in cap space. Yuck.

8. Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans Hornets
Contract Remaining:
4 years, $54.5 million
Analysis: Peja was signed last summer to be Chris Paul's running mate, but that plan was short circuited when Peja missed almost the entire season with complications from a back surgery. Now the question is whether or not Peja will ever be able to regain his former 24 PPG form, or if he will continue his downward scoring trend of the past few seasons. If Peja is unable to regain his form then he will be a $15 million lead weight when the Hornets have to re-sign Chris Paul in a couple of years. Even in a best case scenario, the Hornets will be paying a one dimensional player an average of $13 million a year for the next four years.

7. Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia 76ers
Contract Remaining:
4 years, $43.8 million
Analysis: Size is indeed at a premium in the NBA these days, but Dalembert has yet to show himself to be an elite level center, which his contract would seem to require. Dalembert seems to constantly find himself in foul trouble, and has never been able to stay on the court for more than 31 MPG. Also worrisome is the fact that Steven Hunter was steadily cutting into Dalembert's minutes at the end of the season. So is 10 PPG and 8 RPG worth almost $11 million a year, especially when the 76ers will need to have room to re-sign Andre Igoudala in the coming years? Nope.

6. Erick Dampier, Dallas Mavericks
Contract Remaining:
4 years, $41.3 million
Analysis: The signing of Dampier was a case of the Mavericks experiencing an identity crisis. Much like when the Suns inserted Kurt Thomas against the Spurs this postseason, the Mavericks wanted to become more of a traditional team instead of a high paced offensive mahcine. Dampier was signed to a seven year deal and thru three seasons has yet to average 10 points, 9 rebounds, or 2 blocks in any season. Not exactly the numbers you would expect from a franchise center, or even a mediocre one, and it is Dampier's bad deal that will likely lead to the Mavs having to jettison either Devin Harris or Jason Terry in the coming years.

5. Andrei Kirilenko, Utah Jazz
Contract Remaining:
4 years, $63 million
Analysis: Kirlenko would never be considered a conventional franchise forward, but up until this year his blend of elite defense, great passing skills for a big man, and decent scoring touch made him a very valuable piece of the Jazz. This year however, three things happened that might spell the end of Kirilenko's usefullness in Utah:

1. Deron Williams took over the offense, making Kirilenko's passing skills much less needed
2. Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur were healthy for an entire season for the first time, and they took away a large amount of Kirilenko's minutes and shots.
3. Paul Milsap came out of nowhere and looks primed to become the small forward of the future for the Jazz.

All of these things leave Kirilenko with a very small role in the offense, as well as very few minutes left for him. The Jazz are stuck with him at an average of almost $16 million a year, since no team would take a player with as little scoring ability for that much money. Kirilenko's contract is also going to force the Jazz to make some very tough choices when it comes time to sign Milsap and Williams to extensions.

4. Shaquille O'Neal, Miami Heat
Contract Remaining:
3 years, $60 million
Analysis: The Heat got the championship that they desired from Shaq, but the future looks very bleak from here on out. The Heat will have almost 40% of their salary cap space consumed by Shaq the next three years, and his steady decline in both health and skills is sure to continue. The Heat will have little ability to find help for Dwayne Wade, so don't look for the Heat to be able to make an impact in the playoffs until four years from now when they are finally able to rid themselves of Shaq's contract and get Wade a new sidekick.

3. Quentin Richardson, Jerome James, Stephon Marbury, and Steve Francis, New York Knicks
Contract Remaining:
Richardson: 3 years, $26.3 million, James: 3 years, $18.6 million, Marbury: 2 years, $42 million, Francis: 2 years, $33.6 million
Analysis: Oh where oh where to begin with this mess. Richardson has been a shell of the player he was with Phoenix, as well as missing nearly half of the time with injuries. James was able to turn one decent postseason series into a huge contract, and does not even average double digits in minutes for the Knicks. Marbury and Francis are like two shades of the same color, both being washed up former star PGs playing out the string on their pricey contracts. Absolute train wreck.

2. Larry Hughes, Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Remaining:
3 years, $38.5 million
Analysis: Hughes was pegged as the Pippen to LeBron's Jordan after his career year in Washington, and that is why this contract ranks so high on this list. The Cavs made a mistake with this choice, and it will likely prevent LeBron from ever reaching his full potential while Hughes is on the team. In fact, the poor choice made with Hughes might lead to LeBron eventually leaving the Cavs, since his huge salary cap number along with big Z's contract will likely keep Cleveland from properly fixing the roster problems that have become so glaringly apparent during this postseason.

1. Kenyon Martin, Denver Nuggets
Contract Remaining:
4 years, $59.1 million
Analysis: Kenyon Martin was brought in the year after Carmelo Anthony was drafted to be the number two man in Denver. Think of it as a more expensive, more injury prone, and less productive version of the Larry Hughes situation discussed above. In his three years in Denver Martin has missed increasingly more and more games, playing 70, 56, and 2 games. Last season Martin saw his production peter out at 12.9 PPG and 6.3 RPG, numbers that are completely unnacceptable for a player making nearly $15 million a season. Two things are becoming very obvious with Martin: his early career success was likely a product of playing with Jason Kidd, and he may never recover from the surgeries he has had on both knees. The Nuggets are also left in miserable salary cap position. Just how bad? Four years from now the Nuggets already have $52 million of contracts on the books...from only four players. With Oden and Durant entering the Western Conference next season, the Nuggets might fall behind the pack and out of the playoffs.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

The G(m) Spot: NBA Mock Draft 1.0


Ah, the rite of passage that is the mock draft. I'm sure you have seen a million of them, and will see a million more before the draft happens this summer. So, instead of acting as if I am THE authrority on sports knowledge, I am going to offer a look at the needs of each team categorically, list a few possible prospects that would help in those areas, and then give you my best opinion on which prospect is actually going to be picked. Think of it as being able to look at the thought process behind my mock draft, instead of just seeing the end result. Enjoy.

#1. Portland Trailblazers:
Team Needs: Small Forward and Center
Possibilities: Greg Oden or Kevin Durant
Analysis: I think the Blazers are going to end up going with Oden, even though from a completely objective standpoint putting Durant at the 3 with Randolph at 4 and Aldridge at 5 might be better in the long run. Don't forget, Randolph is a 20-10 machine, and If the Blazers take Oden it is probably the end of the road for Randolph in Portland. Nonetheless, a franchise center > a franchise swing man nine times out of ten, and Oden is indeed a franchise center.
The Pick: Greg Oden

#1a. Seattle Supersonics:
Team Needs: Small Forward and Point Guard
Possibilities: Greg Oden or Kevin Durant
Analysis: Of course if Oden is still on the board the Sonics will snatch him up, but otherwise Durant is the obvious pick here. Durant on the team would allow the Sonics to push up tempo with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Durant all on the floor at once. The Sonics will be a dynamic offensive force next season
The Pick: Kevin Durant

#3. Atlanta Hawks:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Center
Possibilities: Mike Conley, Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, Brandan Wright
Analysis: Lets take a quick look at the Hawk's roster. Joe Johnson at 2. Josh Smith and Josh Childress at the 3. Shelden Williams and Marvin Williams at the 4. Pretty much nothing at the 1 or 5 spots. Why on earth anyone thinks the Hawks are looking to take Wright then, is beyond me. This team does not need a 5th lottery pick forward. So forget Horford too. The Hawks need a PG, and until they get a dynamic playmaker all of their already assembled lottery talent is going to wither on the vine. Conley is the only pick that makes sense. Period.
The Pick: Mike Conley

#4. Memphis Grizzlies:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright, Yi Jianlian
Analysis: Now, this is where things get a bit tricky. With Conley off the board, there are no PG prospects left of high lottery caliber, and the only SG prospect would be a reach for Corey Brewer. What this pick comes down to is whether or not the Grizzlies are going to unload Pau Gasol. If they ditch Gasol, Jianlian would be the pick. If not, they will go with the best value with Brandan Wright. My bet is they keep Gasol for at least one more year. Don't be suprised if West trades down from here for prospects that will better fit the Grizzlies needs.
The Pick: Brandan Wright

#5. Boston Celtics:
Team Needs: Small Forward, Point Guard, and Center
Possibilities: Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, Jeff Green
Analysis: You might be seeing a pattern. A lot of the teams near the top of the draft are in need of a point guard, and this season there is not much supply in that department. So the Celtics are going to have to look to their other needs, and other than Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson they have a lot of them. So do the Celtics take Jianlian to pair with Jefferson? Or do they give Pierce a helper on the wing in Brewer or Green? I think the Celtics are still hoping Gerald Green is going to pan out, so Jianlian looks like the choice here.
The Pick: Yi Jianlian

#6. Milwaukee Bucks:
Team Needs: Small Forward
Possibilities: Corey Brewer, Jeff Green, Julian Wright
Analysis: Looking at the Bucks roster they have young talent all over the board, and a lot of their problems last season were a result of injury. When healthy, the quartet of Mo Williams, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, and Andrew Bogut are one of the more talented young groups in the NBA. So what is missing? The signing of Bobby Simmons at SF has not panned out, and the Bucks now have the chance the rectify that mistake in this draft. Unlike some of the teams ahead of them, the available talent matches up perfectly with their need, and the Bucks will have a choice of three very good SF prospects. In the end I think they will go with the all around game of Jeff Green over Corey Brewer.
The Pick: Jeff Green

#7. Minnesota Timberwolves:
Team Needs: Small Forward and Center
Possibilities: Corey Brewer and Julian Wright
Analysis: Now that Hibbert has pulled out of the draft, the Timberwolves will look to get Kevin Garnett some more socring help. To be honest, Corey Brewer seems like a perfect fit here, and if he is available the Wolves will snatch him up.
The Pick: Corey Brewer

#8. Charlotte Bobcats:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard and Center
Possibilities: Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Julian Wright
Analysis: The Bobcats face an interesting offseason, as both Gerald Wallace and Primoz Brezec are likely to opt out of their contracts. That frees up more playing time for Sean May and Adam Morrison, but it also leaves the Bobcats with some substantial depth problems. The Bobcats have shown that they try to draft for value, and at this spot they would be foolish to pass on Al Horford.
The Pick: Al Horford

#9. Chicago:
Team Needs: Power Forward
Possibilities: Joakim Noah, Al Thornton
Analysis: The Bulls weakness was exposed on national televison recently: they need a scoring option in the post. Period. Luckily for them, that is exactly what will be available to them in Joakim Noah, who will make last year's selection of Tyrus "Stromile" Thomas look even worse.
The Pick: Joakim Noah

#10. Sacramento Kings:
Team Needs: Small Forward and Power Forward
Possibilities: Julian Wright, Al Thornton, Javaris Crittenton, Acie Law
Analysis: The Kings will see their two main targets in Joakim Noah and Al Horford off the board at this point, and their pick will eventually depend on what their plans are with Mike Bibby and Ron Artest. If they ditch Bibby, look for Law or Crittenton. If they ditch Artest, look for Wright. They also have aging PFs, so Thorton would not be a suprise. The smart money is on the Kings taking the best talent left in Wright.
The Pick: Julian Wright

#11. Atlanta Hawks:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Center
Possibilities: Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Javaris Crittenton
Analysis: If the Hawks don't take Conley at the top of the draft they will look to fill their PG need at this spot. Otherwise the Hawks will fill their other glaring hole by taking the best pure center left behind Oden, Spencer Hawes. Getting Hawes and Conley would be a fantastic result for the Hawks.
The Pick: Spencer Hawes

#12. Philadelphia 76ers:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard, Power Forward, Point Guard
Possibilities: Javaris Crittenton, Al Thornton, Acie Law, Nick Young
Analysis:The Sixers have a lot of holes, and thankfully they also have three first rounders to try and fill those holes. They could go with a PG in this spot, but Thorton could do them the most good next season replacing Chris Webber, and there will also likely be a decent PG still around at #21 when they pick again.
The Pick: Al Thornton

#13. New Orleans Hornets:
Team Needs: Small Forward and Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Nick Young, Brandon Rush
Analysis: The Hornets are set for the foreseeable future with Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler manning the 1, 4, and 5 respectively. Their draft needs therefore, are looking to get a swingman to come in to take some of the scoring load off of Chris Paul. Nick Young or Brandon Rush would be a good pick at this spot, but I think that most NBA teams have Young rated a bit higher.
The Pick: Nick Young

#14. LA Clippers:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Brandon Rush, Acie Law, Javaris Crittenton
Analysis: The Clippers have an interesting choice to make at this spot, and the player they select will tell the public a great deal about the future of this team. If the Clippers take Rush, the assumption would be that the Clippers still believe that Shaun Livingston is going to come back and be a starting PG for years to come. If they pick Law or Crittenton however, the Clippers would be signaling that Livingston's career might be forever damaged by his knee injury.
The Pick: Brandon Rush

#15. Detroit Pistons:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Acie Law, Javaris Crittenton, Thaddeus Young, Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol
Analysis: What this pick comes down to is whether or not the Pistons think they are going to be able to resign Chauncey Billups. If they lose him, they certainly need to find a replacement fast, and Acie Law seems much more ready to play right away than Crittenton. If Billups signs with the team, then they will look to bolster their depth at either SG or C
The Pick: Acie Law

#16. Washington Wizards:
Team Needs: Center and Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Tiago Splitter, Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol
Analysis: The Wizards have their big three at the 1, 3, and 5 in Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, so this pick will look to pick up some of the slack at one of the other two spots. The value at this spot is in the Center department, and Tiago Splitter just feels like the perfect pick for the Wizards at this point.
The Pick: Tiago Splitter

#17. New Jersey Nets:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard and Center
Possibilities: Marco Belinelli, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez, Alando Tucker
Analysis: The Nets will be set with Kidd, Jefferson, and Kristic next season, and drafted Kidd's replacement last year with Marcus Williams. The assumption here is that the Nets will refuse to put up the huge money to resign Carter, so they will look to pursue either a SG or C at this spot. There are a number of interesting SG prospects at this position, and the Nets have shown a propensity to take chances on foreign players in the draft.
Analysis: Rudy Fernandez

#18. Golden State Warriors:
Team Needs: Small Forward
Possibilities: Thaddeus Young, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez, Alando Tucker
Analysis: Matt Barnes is going to leave this summer, and Monta Ellis may not be far behind next offseason. The Warriors, as odd as it may sound, will need to address the need here and get a swingman to step in for Barnes. Thaddeus Young is a huge value at this spot.
The Pick: Thaddeus Young

#19. LA Lakers:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Center
Possibilities: Javaris Crittenton, Jason Smith, Marc Gasol
Analysis: The Lakers are in need of a point guard, but a young kid like Crittenton does not seem to fit Phil Jackson's style. The Lakers need to get touch up front, and a Forward the likes of Smith or Gasol would fit the bill here.
The Pick: Jason Smith

#20. Miami Heat:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Small Forward
Possibilities: Javaris Crittenton, Alando Tucker, Rudy Fernandez
Analysis: The Heat are in sore need of more scoring help for D-Wade, but their PG situation is also not getting any better with the aging Jason Williams. Again, Crittenton just does not feel like the right fit here. Alando Tucker would be an interesting option here as a scorer.
The Pick: Alando Tucker

#21. Philadelphia 76ers:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard, Power Forward, Point Guard
Possibilities: Javaris Crittenton, Alando Tucker, Derrick Byars, Marco Belinelli
Analysis: The Sixers know that Andre Miller is only the short term answer at the PG spot. They will snap up Crittenton at this position at great value.
The Pick: Javaris Crittenton

#22. Charlotte Bobcats:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard and Center
Possibilities: Marc Gasol, Josh McRoberts, Alando Tucker, Derrick Byars
Analysis: The Bobcats will have already adressed the front court earlier in the round, and now will have their choice of a few good SG prospects. They need a scorer.
The Pick: Arron Afflalo

#23. New York Knicks:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard and Point Guard
Possibilities: Derrick Byars, Morris Almond
Analysis: The problem in predicting this pick is the fact that the Knicks have been very erratic in their recent draft past. That being said, Byars seems like a good fit for them here, as he could develop into a good complementary piece at SG, and is a bit more well rounded than Afflalo.
The Pick: Derrick Byars

#24. Phoenix Suns:
Team Needs: Small Forward, Power Forward, Center, Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Marc Gasol, Marco Belinelli
Analysis: It has already been well established that the Suns have two problems. 1. They have little depth, and 2. They may need to jettison either Amare or Marion for money reasons. Belinelli seems like a perfect fit here, as the Suns like international players and Belinelli's style will fit in well with the Sun's up tempo game.
The Pick: Marco Belinelli

#25. Utah Jazz:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard and Center
Possibilities: Marc Gasol, Morris Almond, Rodney Stuckey
Analysis: As the Jazz are finding out against the Spurs, they are in need of a perimeter scoring threat. The logical move here would be for the Jazz to take the player they see as being the best scoring prospect, and Almond's shooting touch would seem to give him the edge here.
The Pick: Morris Almond

#26. Houston Rockets:
Team Needs: Power Forward and Point Guard
Possibilities: Marc Gasol, Josh McRoberts
Analysis: The Rockets are in need of a long term solution at the PG spot, but the value in the frontcourt here is too big to pass up. Houston will have its pick of two good partners for Yao in Gasol and McRoberts.
The Pick: Josh McRoberts

#27. Detroit Pistons:
Team Needs: Point Guard and Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Morris Almond, Rodney Stuckey
Analysis: Stuckey, who went to college in Michigan, looks like a great fit for the Pistons in this spot. He is the kind of dynamic scorer that they have missed for some time now.
The Pick: Rodney Stuckey

#28. San Antonio Spurs:
Team Needs: Center
Possibilities: Marc Gasol
Analysis: Marc Gasol is their pick. Period. If he is there, he will be gone. No team that was giving Francisco Elson big minutes can afford to pass him up.
The Pick: Marc Gasol

#29. Phoenix Suns:
Team Needs: Small Forward, Power Forward, Center, Shooting Guard
Possibilities: Ante Tomic, Morris Almond, Gabe Pruit, Daequan Cook
Analysis: The Suns need more reliable players for their rotation. Tomic looks to have the most promise of what is left.
The Pick: Ante Tomic

#30. Philadelphia 76ers:
Team Needs: Shooting Guard, Power Forward, Point Guard
Possibilities: Daequan Cook, Sean Williams, Nick Fazekas
Analysis: Having already taken Horford and Crittenton, the 76ers will look to fill their final remaining need by taking Cook. He'll have more than enough time to develop on the Sixers bench.
The Pick: Daequan Cook

Saturday, May 12, 2007

The G(m) Spot: Do You Like It In The Front?


I want to sell you a cable TV package.

At first it's going to be decently priced, and have all of the channels that you want.

Then the subscription price is going to get a little higher every year, but it is ok at first since you still have all of your favorite channels.

After a few years though I am going to take away some of your favorite channels, charge you much more than I did at first, and offer the old channels in an expensive premium package.

You will only have enough money left over to buy a TV Guide and read about your favorite shows.

So, are you interested?

Evidently NBA General Managers are interested in such a deal, as it is the type that they make all of the time. NBA contracts are almost uniformily backloaded, as yearly salaries for players jump up from a few hundred thousand each year to a few million each year. Now, in a league such as the NFL where the only money a player is sure to get is in signing bonuses and gaurantees, these type of backloaded contracts are not that big of a problem. The Redskins and others in the NFL make outrageously backloaded deals every offseason, with no intention of ever letting those contracts reach their overly expensive base salary peaks. In the NBA however, a team is stuck with the contract in full after it is signed. This creates some very NBA specific player phenomena, such as teams often having their highest paid players sitting on the end of their bench by the end of their contracts and the ever-present discussions of "expiring contracts" in NBA trade talk. Just take a look around the NBA landscape. You have Grant Hill being paid $16.9 million this year. Jamal Mashburn was paid $10.8 million. Alan Houston got $20.7 million. All three of these examples are players that arguably were worth that kind of money at the front end of their contracts, but have over time had their skills and playing time decrease to a point where their current level of compensation is laughable. Going hand in hand with this is the fact that these ever increasing salaries cause their teams to have less and less cap space to bring in complimentary players as their aging star sees their skills decline.

So why don't NBA teams frontload contracts? In a league where the money is is coming to a player whether he produces or not (See: Jerome James, Jalen Rose, Derek Anderson,...) why would a player care if he was getting $16 million as oppsosed to $13 million in the first year of his contract, as long as he was still getting the same money in the end? Well, there are a couple of reasons why this may be, first being the cultural reality of the United States where people across the nation are crippled by credit card debt. "We want to pay later. Gimme gimme now, consequences be damned." The other factor is that NBA GMs know that according to the collective bargaining agreement the salary cap is going to be tied to league revenue, meaning that for the foreseeable future the cap is going to rise a bit every season and provide teams with that extra room to compensate for their star's incrementaly rising salary.

Now this is all heading towards the potential benefits of front loading contracts. First off, it will prevent teams (See: Knicks) from being saddled with albatross contracts for players that are not even playing. They will still be bad contracts, but not so bad that it will prevent the team from bringing in a player to help. This is where the true benefit lies: with the salary cap looking to continue increasing, a lower contract number for a star in the future, combined with a larger cap, will make for an even greater ability for that team to sign a player that could make said team playoff or championship caliber. In other words, players should desire this type of deal since it would help them be able to pursue a championship later in their careers.

Looking across the NBA landscape, it is hard to find examples of how this would manifest itself. Mainly, this is because there are very few frontloaded contracts in the NBA. In fact, there are only four players in the entire league that are signed to long term contracts that are front loaded, Speedy Claxton of the Hawks, David West of the Hornets, and Ben Wallace and Kirk Hinrich of the Bulls. Now, lets look to how the case of the Bulls would be different depending on how Wallace and Hinrich had their contracts constructed. Hinrich and Wallace are slated to make a combined $26.5 million next season, as opposed to $23.5 million in the final year of Wallace's contract three seasons from now. The NBA cap has been rising steadily lately, so assuming that the cap goes up $5 million in the next three years (to be conservative), the backloading of Wallace and Hinrich's contracts will provide the Bulls with about $8 million of space against the cap to bring in help.

While it would take a collosal change in philosophy for the frontloading of contracts in the NBA to ever become commonplace, the ability of the Bulls to continue building their squad in the upcoming years could serve as a test case for the wisdom of such a practice. I know I'll be watching. As long as I still have ESPN on my cable package by then.

Friday, May 4, 2007

The G(m) Spot: Dallas Mavericks

You know something is wrong with your favorite team. It's right there, plain as day, for everyone and their mom to see. So why can't your team's GM fix it? In the "G(m) Spot" column we will examine how teams can go about fixing their roster problems for the upcoming season. If you want to see your team get the G(m) Spot treatment, please send suggestions to kiduterus@gmail.com

In the aftermath of the Maverick's loss to the Warriors much has been made of the Maverick's inabilty to slow down the tempo of the game consistently. More specifically, the glaring weakness of the Maverick's roster was exposed: They do not have a scoring option in the low post. Without the ability to slow down the game with teams such as the Warriors and Suns, the Mavs are going to continue seeing these types of failures in the postseason unlees something is done. The low post is not Dirk's game, and for all of the lip service being paid to him working on developing a better low post game over the summer, forget about it. That is not what Dirk's skill set dictates, and although perhaps you can teach an old dog new tricks, would you really pick Dirk over a Mike Vick trained Mastiff that has been lurking in the post for years? (Too soon?) The other low post options on the Mavs roster include Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop, and for all of the rebounding and shot blocking help they provide neither could be said to be an offensive threat.

What the Mavs do have however, is a decently sized expiring contract for next season in Shawn Bradley's $5.2 million deal, which could help them acquire some veteran help in a trade with a cap strapped team. So now the question looms, where are the Mavs going to be able to get some help for Dirk in the low post? Barring any crazy, roster demolishing trades, here are some targets the Mavs should be looking at going into the offseason:


Anderson Varejao:
The Cav's rising young star is hitting the free agent market this summer, and would be the ideal remedy for what is ailing the Mavs. Varejao possesses the strong post game on offense that would benefit the Mavs against up temp0 teams, while still being athletic enough to get up and down the floor if the Mavs choose to go into a transition offense themselves. Varejao would probably be hard to acquire given the Mavs current cap situation ($62 million on the books already for next season), so the Mavs best option might be a sign and trade deal with the Cavs. And the other shoe that would have to drop in that scenario.....would be Jason Terry heading to the PG needy Cavs, who already have Drew Gooden and Ilgauskas to soften the front court hit of losing Varejao.

Jamaal Magloire:
It would seem that Magloire's time is up in Portland, with his contract expiring and the Blazers having acquired LaMarcus Aldridge in last year's draft. Though Magloire has had two somewhat sub par seasons the last two years, it is important to recall that he averaged double figures in scoring in all three of his seasons with the Hornets. Also to his credit, Magloire is only 28 years old. With his stock down after only starting 21 games this year and losing time to the likes of Aldridge and Joel Przybilla the Mavs might be able to sign Magloire to a contract much smaller than what it would take to bring in Varejao.

Corliss Williamson:
Sometimes, you just need offense. And in those situations, when rebounding and defense might not be of the highest priority for the Mavs, would be when Corliss Williamson would be most effective for them. Say what you will about Williamson's all around game, but there is no denying the fact that the man can put the ball in the hoop when he is in the game. And most importantly for the Mav's needs, he can put it in from the paint. Williamson, who will be a free agent this summer, would probably be the most affordable option for the Mavs, while perhaps also being the most situational.


Kendrick Perkins:
Let's just call this one the Greg Oden option for the Mavs. If the ping pong balls fall the right way for the Celtics to draft Oden, Boston would find itself in a predicament with Oden and Al Jefferson (whose second contract will be looming) sharing the frontcourt space with the raw talents of Perkins and Ryan Gomes. Why is this a bad thing? Well, for a team like the Celtics, it isn't very good to be paying $4 million plus to your 2nd or 3rd string PF when you have such an uncertain situation at PG. So remember Shawn Bradley's expiring contract I was talking about earlier? The Mavs could ship it along with a few draft picks to the Celtics for Perkins, giving Boston some added cap flexibility for the 2008 offseason which could see Baron Davis, Jason Kidd, Jameer Nelson, Chris Duhon, and Brevin Knight on the free agent market.