StatFile of the Week: Bottom of the At-Large Barrel

Every year around this time the sports world seems to turn to discussions of projections. Which teams are going to make the NBA playoffs? Which prospects are going to going to go in the first round of the NFL draft? Which teams are going to be in the pennant race this year? But all of these discussions pale in comparison to one seemingly benign topic: bubbles. NCAA tournament bubbles to be exact. Who is going to get in? Who is staying home? Will it be another year of the mid major, or will the Big Six conferences reign supreme? While every at large team possesses its own unique merits and question marks, I thought it would be interesting to look at the bottom five at large teams (by seed) from the last five NCAA tournaments in an effort to better project who might be sneaking in the bottom of the bracket this March. And the awards for mediocrity went to...

TEAM (W-L, RPI, Top 50 W-L, Rd/Nt W-L, Conference W-L)

'06
Bradley (20-10, 33, 7-6, 7-9, 13-8)
Air Force (22-6, 50, 0-1, 8-6, 12-5)
Texas AM (21-8, 44, 1-5, 5-6, 11-7)
Utah State (22-8, 46, 1-2, 9-6, 13-6)
George Mason (23-7, 26, 2-4, 11-6, 16-4)

'05
NIU (20-10, 37, 2-6, 8-8, 11-8)
UCLA (18-10, 38, 1-7, 6-7, 11-8)
UAB (21-10, 49, 0-5, 10-7, 11-7)
Iowa (21-11, 42, 6-7, 8-8, 9-10)
NC State (19-13, 65, 4-8, 8-7, 9-10)

'04
UTEP (22-7, 46, 1-3, 8-6, 15-6)
BYU (19-8, 31, 2-4, 8-8, 11-5)
Air Force (22-6, 70, 3-1, 9-6, 12-3)
Richmond (20-12, 47, 2-10, 11-8, 12-7)
South Carolina (23-10, 45, 9-6, 9-7, 10-9)

'03
BYU (23-8, 19, 2-6, 10-7, 12-4)
Butler (24-5, 35, 1-3, 13-5, 15-3)
SIU (24-6, 34, 2-2, 10-6, 18-3)
Colorado (20-11, 46, 4-6, 6-10, 10-8)
NC State (18-12, 53, 2-8, 5-9, 11-8)

'02
Mizzou (21-11, 52, 4-7, 8-8, 10-8)
Utah (19-8, 29, 4-3, 7-6, 11-5)
Tulsa (25-5, 30, 0-4, 12-3, 17-4)
Wyoming (20-8, 64, 5-4, 8-7, 12-4)
SIU (26-7, 50, 3-2, 13-7, 16-5)

Avg: 21-9, 43, 3-5, 9-7, 12-6

Looking over the profiles of these teams certain trends and characteristics begin to pop out, and they are about what you would expect. Only two of the twenty-five teams had losing conference records, and only two of the twenty-five had losing Rd/Nt records. As well, only three of the twenty-five had RPIs above 60. One interesting and unexpected note is that the highly hyped “big win” factor does not seem to be nearly as important, as eight of the twenty-five had either one or zero wins against the RPI top 50. Now, taking into consideration that the selection committee has been anything but consistent (For example a team such as NC State in '05 reaching the tournament while last year's Missouri State team (20-8, 21, 4-8, 8-6, 12-7) did not), there are a few teams that would seem to already be in huge bubble trouble based on the trends of the past five years (All stats as of 2-13):

Too Low to Go (RPI deficient)
Syracuse (62)
Gonzaga (64)
Wichita State (71)
Washington (75)
LSU (80)

Home Sick (Rd/Nt deficient)
Providence (1-6)
Michigan (2-6)
Michigan State (3-7)
Purdue (3-8)
Georgia Tech (2-7)

Full of Cupcakes (Conference deficient)
Northern Iowa (7-9)
Arkansas (4-6)
UConn (4-6)
Florida State (5-7)
Maryland (4-6)

On the other side of the bubble debate are a few teams that seem to exemplify the traits seen of the bottom at large teams of recent years. These teams are probably a little more safe to make the tournament than many people think.

Security Blankets (Top 50 RPI, 2+ Top 50 wins, winning Rd/Nt, winning Conference)
Kansas State
USC
Stanford
West Virginia
Missouri State

Hopefully this little diatribe was somewhat helpful in better understanding what makes a team an at large contender. And hopefully it also gives you a little fuel for your prognosticating fire, at least until you have to pick your bracket for the office pool.