Say It Ain't So

The NCAA tournament is changing again. Only this time it has nothing to do with the number of teams in the tourney. Gus Johnson will no longer be a play by play announcer for CBS, ending his 16 year run of calling NCAA tournament games. Gus and CBS could not agree on a new contract today, ending my dream of Gus replacing Jim Nantz calling the Final Four someday. Gus made watching the tournament games exciting as it always seemed he called all the nail biting finishes.



Hence the creation of the "Law of Gus." In his first year of calling the tournament, he was the announcer for the upset of #4 seed UCLA (the defending champs) by the hands of #13 seed Princeton. From that point on, the legend of Gus was created. Other noteable games that Gus has called during his tenure of the tournament include Vermont beating Syracuse in 2005, Ohio St.'s comeback versus Xaiver in 2007, Kansas St and Xaiver's epic double overtime game in 2010, and the famous UCLA comeback versus Gonzaga in the 2006 tourney.

March won't feel the same next year. The "Law of Gus" is no longer with us for the tournament. I am already disappointed (and I know that the fellow writers of this blog are as well) to know that Gus will no longer be with us in March with our brackets, highlighters, and shamrock shakes to call the tournament games. I hope someday that Gus will be back, and all will be alright in the world. I'll leave you all with this Gus tribute to help remember the epic moments from Gus.

Not All Change is Good Change

On the eve of another NCAA Basketball Tournament I can't help but find myself somewhat disappointed with some of the changes that the NCAA has instituted this year.  Between the continuous expansion (read: deluding) of the field and all of the television changes I have found myself wishing for the old days of March Madness.



Expanded Format

First of all, this new expanded format is garbage. Why include an extra 3 teams that everyone knows has no chance to win the tournament?  I can't think of one good reason why including VCU, UAB, and USC in the field makes the tournament better.  All it does is take away from the "second round" (which is what the delusional NCAA is now calling the first round).  You won't see as many 12-5 or 11-6 upsets like you used to because those 12 and 11 seeds will be on their second game of the week. 

Another issue I have with this expansion is that it just confuses the average fan.  One of the things that makes the NCAA tourny great is that it is embraced by so many people.  Throwing in these play in games and starting the tournament on Tuesday is throwing a wrench at all of those average fans.  Like Michael Scott always says, "keep it simple stupid".

New Television Format

This is where my gears are really grinding this year.  Charlie is having a heart attack about how great it is to be able to watch every single game this year.  Now, in theory, that sounds great but when I really sat down and thought about I think it will take away from the tournament experience.  I have no interest in having two TVs in the living room and watching two games at the same time.  I have no interest in bouncing between channels and missing half of each game.  All I want is to sit down on the couch, turn on CBS, and let them show me regional games along with the occasional look in at big moments.  For me its all about the experience of watching the tournament.  Ever since I can remember I have had that TV on CBS (or NBC when they used to have the tourny) and spent all day watching whatever game was on and following the scores across the top of the screen. 

Maybe I sound like the Peter Gammons purist of the NCAA tournament here, but that's fine.  Forget Tru TV, I'm sticking with CBS this March.

The Best of the Best in College Basketball

As conference tournaments are getting underway across the country I thought I would share some opinions on which conference and team I think are the best in nation.  In the first year with an expanded 68 team NCAA tournament, college basketball is as wide open as I've seen it in my life.  This is the first year in recent memory that there really isn't a consensus top conference and top team.  So, for what its worth, here are my two cents.


Best Conference

The fight for the title of best conference is college basketball this year is essentially a two horse race.  The Big East and the Big 10 have established themselves as the top two conferences the last few seasons.  A lot of college basketball fans, including our own Mr. Tritschler, will talk your ear off about how the Big East is far and away the best conference in the country, but I am going to have to disagree. 

Most of the arguments I hear coming from Big East supporters are centered around shear volume of good teams in the league.  I can't argue the fact that the Big East has the highest number of quality teams, but that should be expected from a league that is almost twice as large as most other conferences.  Of the 16 teams in the Big East, only two managed to crack the RPI top 10.  A lot of people will tell you that this is because all of these top teams beat up on each other, but that's hogwash.  It really comes down to the fact that the Big East doesn't have a top level team, but rather a lot of "good" teams. 

The Big 10, while not quite as deep as the Big East, does have that top team to go along with their supporting cast of quality contenders.  Ohio State has established itself atop the conference followed closely by Wisconsin and Purdue.  From there the Big 10 has 3-4 other quality teams that should make the tournament.  The Big 10's top tier is much better than the Big East's and at the same time it doesn't lack depth.

This really is a horse a piece but I'll take quality over quantity every day of the week.

Best Team

If you look at the current AP top 5 (Ohio St, Kansas, Pitt, Notre Dame, and Duke) only one team really stands out.  Ohio State is the only team on that list that has consistently played well all season long.  Boasting a 29-2 record (16-2 in the Big 10), OSU has avoided the "bad loss".  They have all the ingredients to make a deep run in the tournament. 

The Buckeyes are a great shooting team and when Diebler and Lighty are hitting they are almost unbeatable.  But what really sets them apart is their ability to win games when their shooters aren't having a great night.  OSU's true horse is National Player of the Year candidate Jared Sullinger.  He gets high percentage shots around the rim and sets the tone for them offensively.  His ability to pass out of double teams has led to good lucks for those previously mentioned shooters.  Lastly, the emergence of Aaron Craft has been the icing on the cake for the Buckeyes.  Quality point guard leadership is essential in the tournament and Craft has proven he can step up in big games.

Like I said earlier, this tournament is wide open, but unless Diebler really cools off this weekend I don't see anyone beating the Buckeyes.

Kemba Walker Gets Robbed at Gunpoint

The police are currently in route to Madison Square Garden to take Notre Dame guard Ben Hansbrough into custody for an alleged armed robbery which took place this morning before the Big East Tournament got under way.  Eye witnesses claim they saw the 6'3" senior guard holding Connecticut star and fellow Big East stand out, Kemba Walker, at gun point outside MSG at approximately 8:33 AM.  Hansbrough apparently made off with the Big East Player of the Year award.


Ok, so I made all of that up.  But, the fact that Hansbrough won POY over Walker is a crying shame.  Take a look at the stat lines from the two players this year:

Player

GP

MIN

PPG

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

TPG

FG%

FT%

3P%

Ben Hansbrough

30

35.0

18.5

3.8

4.2

1.3

0.1

2.3

.492

.818

.451

Kemba Walker

30

37.4

23.1

5.2

4.3

1.8

0.2

2.0

.426

.792

.358

I know that stats don't always tell the entire story but in what world did Hansbrough have a better season than Walker?  I mean this just makes zero sense to me. 

Without Kemba Walker that Connecticut team wouldn't have won 10 fuckin' games, not 10!  This is the most bullshit thing I've seen in 30 years.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

The college basketball coaching carousel has reared its ugly head once again, this time in the form of Billy Donovan leaving Florida for the Orlando Magic head coaching job. There are two moral questions here, the first of which is whether or not Donovan did the "right" thing by leaving Florida for the Magic job. The answer to this is simple: Donovan is free to take whatever job he wants. America is a free market economy, and Donovan's skills will be more highly compensated by Orlando. Case closed. The second question though, is where the waters begin to muddy: did Donovan handle his departure in a moral way? The answer to that one, is a resounding no. Donovan took a page or two out of the Billy Gillespie/Bob Huggins handbook with his exit strategy, saying just last week that he wouldn't be interested in an NBA coaching position, and also sticking around just long enough to sign Jai Lucas two weeks ago. When interviewed yesterday, Jai had this to say:

"That's a big blow, because you know, that's who I was coming in and expecting to play for. ..."

"It's kind of weird, because (Donovan) told me he wasn't going anywhere. But things happen, and I'm sure if he does take it it's the best thing he could do for his family."

There is the rub. It isn't wrong of Donovan to take a better job: it is wrong of him to mislead both the media and recruits. This development is especially dishertening in Lucas' case, as his prolonged recruiting process was a result of him trying to avoid this exact situation.

So now the question is thus: Can Florida hold together this recruiting class? This is not a simple question, as it depends greatly on who Florida brings in as their new coach, but it is indeed an extremely important question. With the loss of Noah, Humphrey, Horford, Green, and Brewer, the incoming freshman class is going to be relied upon to be the backbone of the 2007-2008 team and any defections could severely hamper any chance that the Gators have at making the NCAA tournament next year. The Gator's class has five players, so here is a quick look at each of their situations:

Nick Calathes: Calathes is the best prospect in the group, an athletic guard that can play both the 1 and the 2. He also happens to be the recruit most certain to stay, as he has had an oral committment with Florida since his sophmore year and is a Florida native.

Chandler Parsons: Parsons, a 6-8 small forward with a good shooting touch, will probably follow Calathes lead. Parsons is also an in state recruit, and it is very unlikely that he would jump ship.

Alex Tyus: Tyus is a power forward, more in the Noah mold than the Horford mold. He is from Ohio, and there is some speculation that he might reopen his recruiting. Tyus was also offered scholarships at Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, Miami, Ohio State, and Washington.

Adam Allen: Allen is the least highly regarded recruit of the class, a shooting guard and a Florida native. He was qouted in a New York Times article as saying that he would likely stay with Florida since they were leaning towards hiring VCU coach and former Florida assistant Anthony Grant. Speaking of Grant, Allen said "He’s a great coach and I have a lot of respect for him". If Florida gets Grant, Allen stays.

Jai Lucas: Now here my friends, is where the plot thickens. Lucas would fill the Gator's need at point guard, and allow Calathes to play out on the wing. If Lucas were to leave, it would put Florida in a very bad point guard situation and also might influence Tyus to depart. If Lucas were to leave, it would seem that the obvious choice for his next destination would be Kentucky. Kentucky is in need of a point guard as well, and Lucas would join an extremely talented recruiting class featuring blue chip prospects Patrick Patterson and Alex Legion. Lucas' father has been quoted as saying that Jai will "see who the new coaches are and re-evaluate the situation".

So how is this going to pan out? Will it be a replay of the Kelvin Sampson situation when he departed Oklahoma? It seems to me that the dominoes all begin in one spot: Richmond, VA., and more specifically VCU's campus. If Anthony Grant signs on quickly then Florida will likely be able to hang on to at least four of their recruits if not all. (Lucas being the lone defection in that scenario) Now, there is a somewhat unsettling quote in the New York Times article:

“I am just so excited about what we were doing here,” Christina Grant said in a telephone interview. “To move, it just wouldn’t ... ” She paused. “I feel tight right now. We have so much to do here.”

So what if Grant did not take the job? That is the doomsday scenario for Gator fans, as they would then be facing a future where they could lose two to three of their recruits and be looking at the very real prospect of missing the NCAA tournament next season. So how will things play out? Nobody knows for certain, but is likely that the coaching situation, and as a result the recruit situation, will be resolved before the end of next week. Until then, the eyes of Gator nation will be on Richmond.

The Cautionary Tale of Kelvin Sampson

Coaching changes in college basketball are often quick and suprising. Witness Tubby Smith's bolt from Kentucky to Minnesota, or Billy Gillispie leaving for Kentucky directly after having negotiated a contract extension (and raise) with Texas A&M. These types of moves leave the teams left by the departing coaches confused, and the recruits brought in by the coach in an even greater cloud of disarray. Am I loyal to the coach, the man whose plan and regime I had ascribed to when I accepted my scholarship? Or do my loyalties truly lie with the college to which I have pledged my services? This conundrum came to prominence recently in the wake of Bob Huggins leaving Kansas State for his alma matter at West Virginia. Specualtion ran rampant that Michael Beasley, the number one prospect in the entire nation and the crown jewel of Huggin's #1 rated recruiting class at Kansas State, would follow his coach to WVU or otherwise seek to be let loose of his national letter of intent. In the end Kansas State was spared from this reality, and the school has been able to hold Huggin's recruiting class together for a run at a Big 12 conference that has seen many of the top teams weakened by graduation and early defections.

Not every story wraps itself up so neatly however

Sometimes when a coach leaves, he sets off a series of shockwaves that resonate across the country.

Meet Kelvin Sampson.

Let's take a little trip back in time. March 29th, 2006 to be exact. On that day it was announced that Kelvin Sampson would be leaving Oklahoma, the school that he had taken to 11 NCAA Tournaments, in order to take the coaching job at Indiana that had been vacated by Mike Davis. The move was a complete shock to Oklahoma, as Sampson had no ties to Indiana that would seem to pull him away form the Sooners. It was revealed soon thereafter however, that Sampson may have been running from his past, as the NCAA came down with sanctions against Sampson for a series of recruiting violations involving phone calls that had occured under Sampson's watch at Oklahoma. Oklahoma acted quickly and hired Jeff Capel from VCU within two weeks to replace Sampson. The shockwaves however, had already begun to spread.

It has been mentioned many times that the three elite recruits Sampson had signed for his 2006 recruiting class were released from their letters of intent to Oklahoma. The identity of those recruits, and where they subsequently went, has not been as widely noted. The three recruits were the top players from what at the time was a national top 5 recruiting class for the Sooners. Once word of Sampson's departue got out, his top recruits were not far behind. All three recruits were rated in the top 100 by Rivals.com, and played 3 different positions, which goes to say that Oklahoma lost a lot of elite talent all across their lineup that day.

So who were these three? Well, I am assuming you have heard of the first player if you followed college basketball last season, and that would be Villanova scoring sensation Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds selected Villanova over Michigan in late May, and stepped onto a Wildcats team that had holes in their lineup the size of buildings after the departure of Allan Ray, Kyle Lowry, and Randy Foye to the NBA. Reynolds leapt at the opportunity and became the team's second leading scorer at 14.8 ppg after a slow start to his freshman campaign. Down the stretch in the Big East schedule Reynolds began to reguarly throw in 20 point games, even going off for 40 in a game against UConn. Suffice it to say, I am sure Sooners fans would have liked to see him wearing an Oklahoma jersey instead of a Villanova one.

The second prospect that jumped ship landed in a bit of an ironic spot. 6 foot 10 inch PF Jeremy Mayfield chose UAB after getting out of his Oklahoma commit, and was greeted there by none other than the man that Sampson had gone to Indiana to replace, Mike Davis. Mayfield played interrmittently throughout his freshman year at UAB, but still posted respectable averages of 4.6 pts and 4.1 rebs per contest in only 17.3 minutes of action a night. Mayfield should play a more prominent role next season, when he is joined by...oh, is that the sound of another dominoe falling?... Indiana transfer Robert Vaden. You see, Vaden is a big Mike Davis fan. Big enough to leave Indiana and follow Davis to UAB. Vaden is no slouch either, rather quite the opposite, having averaged 13.5 pts, 5.5 rebs, and 3.5 asts during his sophmore year at Indiana. Can you feel the shockwaves now?

The third prospect to leave Oklahoma, and the most highly touted, was 6 foot 8 SF Damion James. You have probably heard of him too, although he was overshadowed last season by a slightly more prominent freshman on his own team...one Kevin Durant. James quietly had a very good year for the Longhorns, chipping in 7.6 pts and 7.2 rebs a game, including 4 double-doubles. Also, with Durant leaving James should step in for the lion's share of minutes and shots left in his wake.

The departure of Kelvin Sampson led directly to exodus of three elite recruits from the Oklahoma program, and his departure also directly allowed three other programs to bolster their records for years to come by acquiring those same players. Oklahoma was not nearly as fortunate last season, limping through the year on their way to a 16-15 finish. So what is to be learned from this sad tale, of the lost promise of an Oklahoma program that had what could have been, with Reynolds, James, and Mayfield in the fold, a possible run at a final four? I suppose that it goes to show that perhaps the greatest trait that a school should look for, above recruiting or X's and O's, is getting a coach with loyalty and integrity, lest they see their hard work and hopes scatterred to the wind like so many 5 star grains of sand.

*Disclaimer: Well, it seems as if I have managed to anger both Oklahoma and Indiana fans with this post. (And been accused of being an Illini fan?) So just as an explanation...1. I have never had a rooting interest for or against any of the above teams...2. As the title says, this is meant as a cautionary look at the type of fallout that can occur when a big time college coach leaves a program, not a rant against anyone in particular. That is all.

StatFile: Upset over Upsets

In reaction to the utter lack of upsets in this year's NCAA tournament, I thought I would grace you with a few stats to better understand how boring this tournament has been thus far:

-Coming into this year's tournament double digit seeds averaged 5.8 wins per year.
-There were only 2 such upsets this year (VCU and Winthrop). The previous low was 3, in 2000 and 2004.
-The high for double digit upsets was in 2001, when there were 9.
-This year marked only the second time (2000) since the field expanded in 1985 that no seed higher than 11 won a game.
-With VCU facing Pitt and Winthrop facing Oregon, this year also has the potential to join 1995 as the only tournaments without at least one double digit seed in the Sweet Sixteen.

As you might have already surmised by merely watching the tourney, I am here to confirm: This year could go down as the worst NCAA tourney ever in terms of upsets. May chalk reign.

StatFile of the Week: The MVC...Better than Ever?

In the past few weeks a number of "bracketoligists" have been trumpeting the downfall of the Missouri Valley Conference. They were overrated last year when they got four bids they say. They'll only get two this year they say. The sky is falling they say. Well, I thought it was high time to see what was up with all of the fuss. Is the MVC really going down the crapper? Or...maybe...could it be better than ever?

The first misconception that has to be dealt with straightaway is the belief that the strength of a conference is measured by the number of NCAA bids that a conference receives. This is not true, period. The number of NCAA bids a league receives is more accurately a measure of the number of top teams in a conference, not to be confused with overall strength. The perfect example of this was last year, when the ACC and the MVC both received four bids. Analysts and talking heads everywhere could not believe that the selection committee had allowed such a travesty to occur. I mean, this was the ACC, on principal they should have more teams in the dance than the MVC. Granted, the ACC was a better conference than the MVC, top to bottom. To compare the two conferences, lets look at their respective RPI stats from last year:

ACC
AVG RPI Rank: 68
Low RPI Rank: 160
Median: 70

MVC
AVG RPI Rank: 93
Low RPI Rank: 233
Median: 36

Two things are obvious in looking at these stats. First, The ACC was better on average. Second, the bottom of the conference was weaker in the MVC. The third stat however, explains why there should have been no argument over the four MVC bids from last year. The top of the MVC was nasty last year, just plain nasty. Looking back, the only controversy around the MVC should have been why they only got four bids, as opposed to the SIX they deserved. Missouri State had an RPI of 21 and a SOS of 46, and Creighton had an RPI of 39 and a SOS of 55. Both teams had single digit losses. The ACC's best candidate from last year for a fifth bid. Maryland, which had an RPI of 49, a SOS of 14 and twelve losses. This does not however, mean that the MVC is a better conference. It merely means it had a larger upper echelon last year.

This year the MVC's RPI numbers are up across the board. The conference's non-conference record improved slightly over last year, while playing a harder schedule. The average RPI rank in the conference has jumped from 93 to 78, and the lowest ranked team in the conference is Indiana State (which beat Butler earlier in the season) at 140. So the MVC has improved their conference overall, so shouldn't that mean they get at least as many bids as last year? Of course not.

Last year the MVC had six teams in the top 40 of the RPI. This year they boast only four. Of those four, only Southern Illinois is a lock to get an at large bid. Bradley already has 11 losses, and only has one top 50 win on the season. Translation: probably not going to the Big Dance. Creighton, though faltering of late, looks good to get in with an RPI of 33 and five top 50 wins. Same goes for Missouri State, with an RPI of 34 and a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court. So the conference looks like they are only going to get three teams in, one less than last year. And that is ok. Mainly because the conference as a whole has gotten a lot better in the past year, whether or not that ends up translating into at large bids.

StatFile of the Week: Bottom of the At-Large Barrel

Every year around this time the sports world seems to turn to discussions of projections. Which teams are going to make the NBA playoffs? Which prospects are going to going to go in the first round of the NFL draft? Which teams are going to be in the pennant race this year? But all of these discussions pale in comparison to one seemingly benign topic: bubbles. NCAA tournament bubbles to be exact. Who is going to get in? Who is staying home? Will it be another year of the mid major, or will the Big Six conferences reign supreme? While every at large team possesses its own unique merits and question marks, I thought it would be interesting to look at the bottom five at large teams (by seed) from the last five NCAA tournaments in an effort to better project who might be sneaking in the bottom of the bracket this March. And the awards for mediocrity went to...

TEAM (W-L, RPI, Top 50 W-L, Rd/Nt W-L, Conference W-L)

'06
Bradley (20-10, 33, 7-6, 7-9, 13-8)
Air Force (22-6, 50, 0-1, 8-6, 12-5)
Texas AM (21-8, 44, 1-5, 5-6, 11-7)
Utah State (22-8, 46, 1-2, 9-6, 13-6)
George Mason (23-7, 26, 2-4, 11-6, 16-4)

'05
NIU (20-10, 37, 2-6, 8-8, 11-8)
UCLA (18-10, 38, 1-7, 6-7, 11-8)
UAB (21-10, 49, 0-5, 10-7, 11-7)
Iowa (21-11, 42, 6-7, 8-8, 9-10)
NC State (19-13, 65, 4-8, 8-7, 9-10)

'04
UTEP (22-7, 46, 1-3, 8-6, 15-6)
BYU (19-8, 31, 2-4, 8-8, 11-5)
Air Force (22-6, 70, 3-1, 9-6, 12-3)
Richmond (20-12, 47, 2-10, 11-8, 12-7)
South Carolina (23-10, 45, 9-6, 9-7, 10-9)

'03
BYU (23-8, 19, 2-6, 10-7, 12-4)
Butler (24-5, 35, 1-3, 13-5, 15-3)
SIU (24-6, 34, 2-2, 10-6, 18-3)
Colorado (20-11, 46, 4-6, 6-10, 10-8)
NC State (18-12, 53, 2-8, 5-9, 11-8)

'02
Mizzou (21-11, 52, 4-7, 8-8, 10-8)
Utah (19-8, 29, 4-3, 7-6, 11-5)
Tulsa (25-5, 30, 0-4, 12-3, 17-4)
Wyoming (20-8, 64, 5-4, 8-7, 12-4)
SIU (26-7, 50, 3-2, 13-7, 16-5)

Avg: 21-9, 43, 3-5, 9-7, 12-6

Looking over the profiles of these teams certain trends and characteristics begin to pop out, and they are about what you would expect. Only two of the twenty-five teams had losing conference records, and only two of the twenty-five had losing Rd/Nt records. As well, only three of the twenty-five had RPIs above 60. One interesting and unexpected note is that the highly hyped “big win” factor does not seem to be nearly as important, as eight of the twenty-five had either one or zero wins against the RPI top 50. Now, taking into consideration that the selection committee has been anything but consistent (For example a team such as NC State in '05 reaching the tournament while last year's Missouri State team (20-8, 21, 4-8, 8-6, 12-7) did not), there are a few teams that would seem to already be in huge bubble trouble based on the trends of the past five years (All stats as of 2-13):

Too Low to Go (RPI deficient)
Syracuse (62)
Gonzaga (64)
Wichita State (71)
Washington (75)
LSU (80)

Home Sick (Rd/Nt deficient)
Providence (1-6)
Michigan (2-6)
Michigan State (3-7)
Purdue (3-8)
Georgia Tech (2-7)

Full of Cupcakes (Conference deficient)
Northern Iowa (7-9)
Arkansas (4-6)
UConn (4-6)
Florida State (5-7)
Maryland (4-6)

On the other side of the bubble debate are a few teams that seem to exemplify the traits seen of the bottom at large teams of recent years. These teams are probably a little more safe to make the tournament than many people think.

Security Blankets (Top 50 RPI, 2+ Top 50 wins, winning Rd/Nt, winning Conference)
Kansas State
USC
Stanford
West Virginia
Missouri State

Hopefully this little diatribe was somewhat helpful in better understanding what makes a team an at large contender. And hopefully it also gives you a little fuel for your prognosticating fire, at least until you have to pick your bracket for the office pool.