Is This A Good Trade For Boston?

In case you slept through the entire day yesterday, you probably know that Kevin Garnett is going to Boston. (ESPN, SI, and Sportsline all say it is agreed to, so if it falls through blame them, not me.) So now that the deal is essentially done, lets take a look at both what Boston had to give up and what they have left.

Going: First, here is what they are reported to be sending to Minnesota;

Al Jefferson
Gerald Green
Sebastian Telfair
Ryan Gomes
Theo Ratliff
2 future 1st Round Picks

In order to get KG Danny Ainge had to sell his soul and do what he had said all along he didn't want to do; deal all of his young talent. Giving up Al Jefferson really hurts. In case you didn't get the chance to see Jefferson in the second half of the season last year, here is what you need to know. Before the All Star break Jefferson posted these stats; 13.9 PTS, 10.6 REB, 1.45 BLK, .484 FG%. After the break his numbers looked like this; 19.8 PTS, 11.5 REB, 1.68 BLK, .554 FG%. Point being, Jefferson was just starting to come out of his shell at the end of last season, and was poised to become a 20-10 threat this upcoming year. Giving up a 22 year old with that kind of talent is a huge risk for the Celtics to take.

Besides Jefferson, Gerald Green also has potential to develop into a big time player in the NBA. The certainty of his development however, is much less certain than Jefferson's. Some people think Green could be a consistent 20 PPG scorer on the wing; some think he is no better than a backup. If Green comes out somewhere inbetween, the Timberwolves would have a pretty good tandem on their hands with Green and Corey Brewer on the wing.

Telfair and Gomes are both in the trade mainly to even out the salary cap, but both have the potential to be develop into decent bench players. The real key to this trade could be the second draft pick, which is actually the draft pick that Minnesota sent to Boston back in the Wally for Ricky trade a few years back. Considering that the Wolves might be the worst team in the West for the next two seasons, that pick very well could be a top 5 selection. Add a top 5 pick to a core of Jefferson, Green, Brewer, and Randy Foye, and in three years time Kevin McHale and the Timberwolves could end up looking pretty smart.

Coming: There is no questioning that the Celtics are getting a major talent back in this trade. Despite being 31 years old and a 12 year NBA veteran, Garnett is still one of the top ten players in the NBA. (To be more precise since people throw around that phrase all the time, I'd say he is the 7th best player in the league right now.) Garnett still has at least 2-3 years of prime ball left in him, during which time he will be without a doubt 1.) the best passing big man in the East 2.) the best defender in the East and 3.) a dominant offesive force. After those 2-3 prime years? He'll likely lose a little of the explosion he has on defense and offense but he will still be the hungriest guy on the court, and passing skills don't really fade with time.

Left: Here is where the plot thickens. Everyone knows about the newly formed trio of KG, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen. Will they be good? Yeah. Will they make the playoffs? Yeah. Will they win the East? Well, to answer that one lets take a look at what the Celtics will have other than the big three;

Rajon Rondo
Kendrick Perkins
Brian Scalabrine
Tony Allen
Leon Powe
Brandon Wallace
Glen Davis
Gabe Pruitt

Now, consider that two of those players will be starting for the Celtics every night (Rondo and Perkins), and that another two will be playing at least 25 minutes a night, and now you begin to see the potential downside of this deal. Brian Scalabrine is the 6th Man...need I say more? There is an obvious move that the Celtics can make that will help them greatly. Sign Brevin Knight. Sign him tomorrow. Sign him before you even eat breakfast tomorrow. That one deal may well be the difference between next year's Celtics team being a mere playoff team and being the Eastern Conference champions. Knight was made for this role. Think about it; Rondo is talented but raw. Who better to step in for a year to teach him than Knight, who is an undersized defensive specialist just like Rondo? Knight would also be the perfect fit to play with the big three. He doesn't need to take shots, and is one of the best pure passing point guards in the game. The sad thing for the Celtics is that they didn't make this trade two weeks ago. If they had, then in addition to Knight they could have added Jamaal Magloire at center to complete the starting lineup. Tell me a lineup of Knight, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, and Magloire wouldn't be a whole heck of a lot better than a lineup with Rando and Perkins instead.

The Verdict:As things stand right now, Boston will be hard pressed to win the East with their current team. I think both Miami and Detroit would still beat them in a playoff series. Also, if you really think about it, are these new Celtics really any better than Cleveland, Washington, Chicago, Toronto, or New Jersey? And hasn't the three star philosophy been tried recently in the East to lackluster results? (See; Arenas-Jamison-Butler and Kidd-Carter-Jefferson) Also, for all of the "Celtics will smash the East, the East sucks" people, here is a newsflash for you; the East got a lot better when you weren't looking. Let's start at the bottom. Milwaukee had Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, and Bobby Simmons hurt for large parts of last season, and now add Yi Jianlian to a now healthy team. The Knicks were able to add Zach Randolph for essentially nothing. The Bobcats traded for Jason Richardson and also look to get full seasons from Primoz Brezec, Sean May, and Walter Herrman. The 76ers ended the season on a 17-9 run when you weren't looking, and then added Thaddeus Young through the draft. The Magic signed Rashard Lewis. The Wizards look to have a healthy Gilbert Arenas. The Heat look forward to full years from the recently injured Shaq and D-Wade. I say all that to say this; if you are ready to say the Celtics, last year's worst Eastern team, are the top team in the East this year, you are ignoring reality. The whole Eastern Conference upgraded this offseason, and the Celtics look to be in the middle of the pack.

So will the trade be worth it? Short-term, yes. The Celtics will be a playoff team, and depending on the secondary moves Ainge makes they could challenge for the East a season or two from now. Will they win a championship? Probably not. They would be completely outclassed at the point and outcoached by any of the top Western Conference teams if the Celts were to reach the Finals. In the long term the trade is awful. Just plain rotten. After their 3-4 year window runs up, and they have maybe won two Eastern Conference titles, they will have nothing but a luxury tax roster with lottery team talent. It is obvious that Ainge made the move knowing his job was likely on the line, but he may well have just given himself a 4 year lease instead of long term security.

Ainge's Risk

The story that won't die has reared its head once again; Kevin Garnett might be traded.

The punchline to this joke? The trade being discussed (and in some reports the trade that is done) is KG going to Boston.

Didn't he veto that one already?

This time around the landscape is a little different from both the Celtics' and KG's perspective. For KG, Ray Allen being added to the roster along with Paul Pierce now makes Boston look a lot more attractive, perhaps attractive enough to sign a long-term extension with the Celtics. For the Celtics, having three All-Stars (Pierce, Garnett, and Allen) looks a lot better on paper than having two, and would certainly push them inot the Finals out of the weak East. Right?

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but sometimes 2 can be greater than 3. In this case adding either KG or Ray Allen, alone, could have theoretically benefited the Celtics in both the short and long term. Adding both players however, is going to essentially gut the entire Celtics roster. Just take a look at what the Celtics are reported to be giving up in the KG trade;


Al Jefferson
Gerald Green
Sebastian Telfair
Theo Ratliff

Also take a look at what they already gave up for Allen;

Jeff Green
Delonte West
Wally Szczerbiak

Taken alone, both trades would have left the Celtics with some talent to develop around their newly imported All Star. Both trades though? As great as Allen and KG are and have been in their careers, you are talking about two men in their 30's that are likely on the downsides of their careers. To get these two players the Celtics are sacrificing two decent young talents (West and Telfair), two youngsters that could become All Stars (J. Green and G. Green), and one young guy who will be an All Star, and soon (Jefferson).

In spite of the talent purge that would take place if KG were to come to town, in the mind of Danny Ainge it would be worth it if the move led to an NBA championship. The obvious question then, is will adding KG bring a title to Boston? The answer is by no means simple. Having two All Stars on one team can be hard enough (See; Nuggets, Denver), but having three? The success of the deal would hinge entirely on the ability of Pierce, Allen, and KG to come together as a cohesive unit. Whether they will be able to or not is anyone's guess.

So lets just suppose that the experiment does go pretty well. KG leads the Celtics to the Eastern Conference championship. Then what? Would a Celtics team without a PG, without a C, and without any bench depth whatsoever be able to beat the Spurs? The Suns? The Mavs? No way on earth would that happen. In a best case scenario the Celtics might win the East a couple of times in the next 3-4 years. Barring a major dose of luck in the draft however, the Celtics will not be able to add any players of substance to help their All Star trio over the hump to becoming NBA champs. And the aftermath of such a 3-4 year run could be ugly. Aging stars Pierce, Allen, and Garnett will fall off in productivity while their contracts continue to rise, and there won't be a Gerald Green, Jeff Green, or Al Jefferson waiting in the wings to pick up the slack. They will all be too busy playing on the Western Conference All Star team.